packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 We got pretty good agreement on what to expect for Jan...EPS weeklies, JMA seasonal and CFS all have the same general pattern. This isn't "great" but it's something that we could get lucky and especially mtns. 83/07 are leading analogs for Jan and both had events mid/end of Jan with similar setup. Feb should be better as Jon pointed out with the Cohen update. I am looking forward to next 10 days of warmth, its unprecedented at the very least. I am not sure head fake is correct for what we are seeing first week of Jan but more of bouts cool/cold followed by relaxations and more back/forth for Jan. I think Feb should be more "locked in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 More CFSv2...looks pretty good actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's freakin' March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's freakin' March! Rocking April! XD jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's freakin' March! Fixed...LOL...I had them all up and they looked practically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Good post from WxSouth. He seems to think everything is still shaping up for a good winter and more snow. The long range discussion is out at my site, and it's a huge write-up. In a nutshell here for FB, I am predicting a huge turn around, but I can't guarantee that of course. There's always a lot of unknowns out there in the future for weather forecasters. But I look at the bigger picture, working inward, and of course look at the data, the actual trends on models, how are they doing, and does it fit the look I envisioned, or not. And where to make changes. Right now, I don't see the need to make any changes to my Winter outlook . I didn't go that cold for Winter, but "cold enough" and I went wet everywhere in the South, with an incredibly active southern Pacific Jet. The nino has peaked , and will probably translate to a "modoki" type come February. The models are seeing a warming Arctic soon. As you know , Greenland and Alaska have been frigid, indicative of a very strong Polar Vortex. Here's the tricky part, when, and where does it get disturbed. It may still dump cold out west, but I'm anticipating the opposite, so there's huge bust potential here. Bottom line, with time, Canada grows warmer and warmer. The main players and drivers for our Weather will be the strong negative anomaly south of Aleutians in Alaska. That splits the Pacific Flow, so that Western Canada ridging shows up more and more with time (this means, areas that were cold, trend warmer, areas that were warm, will trend colder)...such that the coolest anomalies are smack dab in the Southeast US come heart of Winter. I don't see frigid here necessarily, unless the negative NAO manifests, but I do see the 5H pattern being conducive to slightly colder than average (which is tremendously colder than we have now). And coinciding with a juicy southern storm track. Put two and two together here, and you get the idea that I think we'll mingle cold air and moisture much more than last Winter,and there's potential for a very memorable Winter some areas down South and into MidAtlantic. But we're not anywhere near that yet. So enjoy the what is sure to be a record breaking Warm December. And subscribe to the site if you enjoy long range talks more, and once we get into the active Winter storm close calls those posts are loaded at my site as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 gfs tries to show a little something for the mtns around new years day and then another event in fantasyland around the 4th/5th. encouraging to see the models pick up on the pattern change as we close out 2015. just need to sit tight these next 2 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 We always talk about wasting cold in the winter waiting on moisture to show up. Hope it's not the opposite this year cause we will be spending/getting a ton of moisture to close out December. I've already seen flash flooding this morning from the runoff from last nights deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Jon - how long has the 46 day Parallel EPS been up on WB. Just noticed it has weekly 5h plots and shows a real nice canonical Nino progression through Jan into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 gfs tries to show a little something for the mtns around new years day and then another event in fantasyland around the 4th/5th. encouraging to see the models pick up on the pattern change as we close out 2015. just need to sit tight these next 2 weeks or so. what is discouraging is that each day we march forward the guidance gets warmer and less favorable. so we go from well AN to AN. I remember couple weeks ago we were talking about week four being better...roll forward couple weeks and we are still hoping week 4 looks good....soon week four will be March. I remain less than optimistic things will really turn around. both your region and mine need better than just average temps to get good winter weather and I just can't see it. but I hope to be wrong of course and usually am...just feeling quite pessimistic this morning. looking at everything in front of me and bracing for an 80F Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Time for the Good, the bad, and the ugly: The Good: PNA moves Positive very nicely on the Euro end of December and finishes at +1 Jan 1 The Bad: NAO stays very positive. It is almost +3 at the end of the run. We have had good winters with no NAO help, but would be nice to have it. The Ugly: AO goes from a positive 4.5 and dips to a +2.25 but flat lines there. Just UGLY Bonus: EPO looks to be diving to -2. Congrats Texas and Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 We always talk about wasting cold in the winter waiting on moisture to show up. Hope it's not the opposite this year cause we will be spending/getting a ton of moisture to close out December. I've already seen flash flooding this morning from the runoff from last nights deluge. With the el nino we should continue to get storm systems through the winter. So really nothing wasted there. If a pattern change is about to occur, we in the SE are looking good. December does not normally provide big winter storms; even in cold patterns. If January now turns "cold enough" we should immediately start seeing chances for winter events. Really this could be the perfect time (early-mid January) to switch to a colder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Time for the Good, the bad, and the ugly: The Good: PNA moves Positive very nicely on the Euro end of December and finishes at +1 Jan 1 The Bad: NAO stays very positive. It is almost +3 at the end of the run. We have had good winters with no NAO help, but would be nice to have it. The Ugly: AO goes from a positive 4.5 and dips to a +2.25 but flat lines there. Just UGLY Bonus: EPO looks to be diving to -2. Congrats Texas and Mexico. Not sure which site you are looking at but the noaa site I'm not sure has updated but the only thing that looks certain is the pna rising. The nao and the ao have a ton if spread. From negative to very positive. I would bet on positive at the moment but nothing is clear with those indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 With the el nino we should continue to get storm systems through the winter. So really nothing wasted there. If a pattern change is about to occur, we in the SE are looking good. December does not normally provide big winter storms; even in cold patterns. If January now turns "cold enough" we should immediately start seeing chances for winter events. Really this could be the perfect time (early-mid January) to switch to a colder pattern. yea, we live in the south. we aren't going to get wall to wall frigid temps, and if we did it would likely be bone dry. at this point all you can ask for is a cooldown and hope that we get lucky with timing of moisture. heck, i think we would all be happy with a storm or 2 to track in jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Jon - how long has the 46 day Parallel EPS been up on WB. Just noticed it has weekly 5h plots and shows a real nice canonical Nino progression through Jan into Feb. I'm not Jon but I think a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the term I am hearing most from the experts on the board is "relaxation" of the current extreme warm pattern...the would seem inevitable...but I am not hearing anything about what we would term a "cold" pattern except with hoping Feb is good based on historical data. again no optimism about anything other than the routine near to AN temps for 40S for the next weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 With the el nino we should continue to get storm systems through the winter. So really nothing wasted there. If a pattern change is about to occur, we in the SE are looking good. December does not normally provide big winter storms; even in cold patterns. If January now turns "cold enough" we should immediately start seeing chances for winter events. Really this could be the perfect time (early-mid January) to switch to a colder pattern.Good post. Also going forward it looks like with the pna going positive we see a more classic storm pattern across the southwest through Texas then the SE. Which is great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Time for the Good, the bad, and the ugly: The Good: PNA moves Positive very nicely on the Euro end of December and finishes at +1 Jan 1 The Bad: NAO stays very positive. It is almost +3 at the end of the run. We have had good winters with no NAO help, but would be nice to have it. The Ugly: AO goes from a positive 4.5 and dips to a +2.25 but flat lines there. Just UGLY Bonus: EPO looks to be diving to -2. Congrats Texas and Mexico. The NAO and AO do have a widespread of member runs. I would say the NAO does still average positive in the LR but the AO would at least average neutral in the LR; but again there are a large spread in runs meaning the models are having difficultly (...maybe because of the coming change). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 yea, we live in the south. we aren't going to get wall to wall frigid temps, and if we did it would likely be bone dry. at this point all you can ask for is a cooldown and hope that we get lucky with timing of moisture. heck, i think we would all be happy with a storm or 2 to track in jan.I think not getting frigid temps is key. We just need it cold enough to sbow. Most of our best snowstorms have come with temps 25 to 30 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The NAO and AO do have a widespread of member runs. I would say the NAO does still average positive in the LR but the AO would at least average neutral in the LR; but again there are a large spread in runs meaning the models are having difficultly (...maybe because of the coming change). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Exactly. Just what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the term I am hearing most from the experts on the board is "relaxation" of the current extreme warm pattern...the would seem inevitable...but I am not hearing anything about what we would term a "cold" pattern except with hoping Feb is good based on historical data. again no optimism about anything other than the routine near to AN temps for 40S for the next weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not sure which site you are looking at but the noaa site I'm not sure has updated but the only thing that looks certain is the pna rising. The nao and the ao have a ton if spread. From negative to very positive. I would bet on positive at the moment but nothing is clear with those indices. It is the Euro on Weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I think not getting frigid temps is key. We just need it cold enough to sbow. Most of our best snowstorms have come with temps 25 to 30 degree range. yea, in the SE we just don't cash in with massive arctic outbreaks with temps in the low 20s/teens. we just have to get lucky with timing, which means some get shut out with 34 and rain while others jackpot at 30 degrees. nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 yea, in the SE we just don't cash in with massive arctic outbreaks with temps in the low 20s/teens. we just have to get lucky with timing, which means some get shut out with 34 and rain while others jackpot at 30 degrees. nature of the beast.Oh yeah sure is. I think getting snow here is more luck than actually a good pattern lol. We shall see. I'm on the fence really but the pna going positive us a good sign but we need blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Oh yeah sure is. I think getting snow here is more luck than actually a good pattern lol. We shall see. I'm on the fence really but the pna going positive us a good sign but we need blocking. I agree. I'm not even sure we'll get into a great pattern this year. As stated above, we just need a pattern to provide "cold enough" temps. A lot of the analogs would have a more uniform temperature spread from north to south; hence the above normal temps to the north and colder than normal to the south. The key may be how cold/dry the air in Canada can get; and then have a pattern that allows this air to overtake the SE. Maybe just the PNA and EPO is all we need (..and some luck). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Mark Mancuso @AccuMancuso 2h2 hours ago January to yield winter's first outbreak of icy air in eastern, central US http://bit.ly/1U29FAh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the term I am hearing most from the experts on the board is "relaxation" of the current extreme warm pattern...the would seem inevitable...but I am not hearing anything about what we would term a "cold" pattern except with hoping Feb is good based on historical data. again no optimism about anything other than the routine near to AN temps for 40S for the next weeks. We may not have a "cold" pattern rest of the winter, I wouldn't be surprised if Jan/Feb average slightly BN for the SE, neutral for MA and AN for NE but still AN snowfall. Anything before Jan 20th is a bonus, if we get to end of Jan without atleast a small event for the MA/SE I would then start to worry a little. Although I still think Feb we should be solidly BN but nothing like last Feb. All of these nino's had events in the SE in Jan and is kind of temp distribution I am expecting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Sent from my iPhone I don't get this at all, unless we are over-analyzing "running out of time"...I guess he didn't say we are out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 the term I am hearing most from the experts on the board is "relaxation" of the current extreme warm pattern...the would seem inevitable...but I am not hearing anything about what we would term a "cold" pattern except with hoping Feb is good based on historical data. again no optimism about anything other than the routine near to AN temps for 40S for the next weeks. This is how I see it at this point. Basically it's not going to be warm come January, but it ain't going to snow either. That's not gotten me optimistic. For snow in the south we need a good pattern over a period of time. I don't think we're going to get that at least until February. Timing events, I'd say in general, do not work out well for the SE. Still lurking.....we'll see what happens in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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