DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 euro says keep your jackets in the closet. just ridiculous. Greg Fishel @gbfishel 2m2 minutes ago European model shows max temps at RDU>=70 for 7 consecutive days Dec 23-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Pattern will change, I am thinking this is a head fake though...first week of Jan we get a glimpse and then we revert to some crap pattern until atleast the 20th and then we see some changes into Feb. Going to be a long 4 weeks. Think someone in the east sees something first week of Jan, probably mtns up through MA to NE. Mountains could also have flooding issues. The GFS is showing areas over 8" by the end of its run in the mountains of NC and Euro is showing high 6" or more amounts over the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 euro says keep your jackets in the closet. just ridiculous. Greg Fishel @gbfishel 2m2 minutes ago European model shows max temps at RDU>=70 for 7 consecutive days Dec 23-29 Old news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Seemingly a little more positive faith in the LR model runs today over on the mid-atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 16m16 minutes ago (1/3) If the rain holds off on Christmas Eve, temperatures could climb into the upper 70s to near 80. #ncwx 0 retweets 0 likes NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 17m17 minutes ago (2/3) Afternoon temperatures on Christmas Eve should range in the lower to mid 70s. NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 18m18 minutes ago (1/3) Temperatures on Christmas should be much above normal and may break record highs & record high minimums. #ncwx 0 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Nice changes for late Jan on the BCC model. New run left, old run 3 days ago right. Building a more +PNA/-EPO look w/ pacific low defined and a redistributed torugh over southern and eastern states. +AO is the only problem here but you can't hate the trend. Jan 20-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Jon, what many of the models show with warmth in Canada due to ridging and cooler air down south seems to match well with analogs for the strong El Niño years. Here is what the map for January looks like. Very similar to what the long range Ensembles, seasonal models and others are hinting at. Pattern change still on track for first week of January imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 EPS says hello Nino/STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z Euro EPS on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Where would one go in order to find ranked climate data for weather stations? For example, I would like to know the record for the warmest average December temperature at RDU. I have a supician that it may be crushed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Where would one go in order to find ranked climate data for weather stations? For example, I would like to know the record for the warmest average December temperature at RDU. I have a supician that it may be crushed this year. There are many tools/different websites...here's just one http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/nc_extremes.php 81 degrees Dec 10, 2007 @ RDU (for highest temperature in Dec) you can do all of NC and get a rank of stations for December: Event Location Date Highest Temperature 87°F Edenton, Chowan County Dec 3, 1922 87°F Kinston, Lenoir County Dec 9, 1918 86°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County Dec 20, 1931 86°F Goldsboro, Wayne County Dec 8, 1998 86°F Washington, Beaufort County Dec 7, 1906 means are also available Warmest Weather Station* 50.5°F Hatteras, Dare County monthly average 50.0°F Buxton, Dare County monthly average 49.6°F Morehead City, Carteret County monthly average 49.0°F Cedar Island, Carteret County monthly average 48.9°F Wilmington, New Hanover County monthly average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12z Euro EPS on board Looks better but could just end up colder and wet. Without the Atlantic 40S won't get much of anything good...just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looks better but could just end up colder and wet. Without the Atlantic 40S won't get much of anything good...just my opinionLots better than 80s and wet, jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looks better but could just end up colder and wet. Without the Atlantic 40S won't get much of anything good...just my opinion Even with just seasonal/average temps we at least have an outside chance of seeing snow if we have a good storm track timed with some colder air. In the current pattern we have there is zero chance for snow here because a shot of cooler air drops us to slightly below average and lasts a day or two. With temps near 80 there definitely won't be snow. The pattern depicted by the ensembles would be at or slightly below average which would at least give us a decent chance for something. This is evident by the GFS finally showing fantasy snow storms whereas we didn't even have that before. You know it's bad when the LR GFS isn't even showing a big snow or super cold Arctic outbreak. Glad we are heading out of this warm December into a cooler January and frigid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looks better but could just end up colder and wet. Without the Atlantic 40S won't get much of anything good...just my opinionWell I agree considering the mean 850mb 0c line is basically I-40, but the models are just now figuring out this time period so there's that. Anything we get in the first two weeks of Jan will be a bonus but I'm expecting to start having storms to track sooner than later. This is much better than the pattern we have been stuck in, the endless heat is over on the models and thank god for that, people were thinking we would be stuck in that all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 06z GFS - 3.57" rain over the next 5 days for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 EPS is impressive for how fast it changes from this crap pattern to a potential wintery one...still believe we "relax" again for a couple of weeks in mid-Jan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 CFS has done well and it's still showing a predominately warm east for Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 EPS is impressive for how fast it changes from this crap pattern to a potential wintery one...still believe we "relax" again for a couple of weeks in mid-Jan though. If we could reverse the red/blue blobs in the Atlantic it would be nice...probably suppress the pattern south to your liking maybe not mine...but I agree the Pac doesn't look stable enough to keep that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 If we could reverse the red/blue blobs in the Atlantic it would be nice...probably suppress the pattern south to your liking maybe not mine...but I agree the Pac doesn't look stable enough to keep that look It will be interesting to see if that ridge off Nova Scotia is a fixture this winter or not, obviously everyone wants a -NAO but it's been negative once in the past 15 or so winter months. Seems like analogs pick that up and matches what the EPS/GEFS are spitting out the first week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is a fairly obvious post but something to think about when putting all our eggs in the Feb basket...our snowy nino's are cold in Jan and our non-snowy are warm in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is a fairly obvious post but something to think about when putting all our eggs in the Feb basket...our snowy nino's are cold in Jan and our non-snowy are warm in Jan. Let's take out 92/98 since they were so extreme, 6 non-snowy were warm in Jan but still cold in Feb....still well BN snowfall for the winter. #needcoldJan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 CFS has done well and it's still showing a predominately warm east for Jan...yeah this is concerning considering it has nailed this month. Did it not show a torch the whole winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 yeah this is concerning considering it has nailed this month. Did it not show a torch the whole winter? I think this is actually a pretty common misconception about the modeling this fall. All climate models, from October on were showing a pretty warm December east of the Mississippi. Was the CFS the closest on magnitude? Sure, but it's not like others didn't see it as well. CanSIPS from November 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Robert doesn't seem to be on board for the pattern change! Check out his FB page. Basically warm and warmer, for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Robert doesn't seem to be on board for the pattern change! Check out his FB page. Basically warm and warmer, for a long time LOL....he just speaks through New Years, it will be crazy hot through atleast New Years day, first week of Jan we look to go more seasonable to maybe slightly below, but CFS showing 1-2F AN for SE for Jan seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The NAM has a DP of around 70 for Charlotte around Christmas. Just unbelievable. That DP is even bad for summer averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 LOL....he just speaks through New Years, it will be crazy hot through atleast New Years day, first week of Jan we look to go more seasonable to maybe slightly below, but CFS showing 1-2F AN for SE for Jan seems reasonable.1-2 above for Jan, I'll take! Hate for it to turn into a super cold , dry pattern! I know that's probably off the table, but we don't need mega cold to score, just cold enough! I like 36 degree snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Joe D'Aleo and Bastardi are still confident in their Jan-Feb forecast and I would not bet against them. While they do have a cold bias, it should be pointed out that the CFSV2 has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Maybe a little progress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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