packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's really hard to see our way out of this and into a good winter pattern. I just don't see how it can be done without -NAO even with an improved PAC...we shall see...if by XMas there is no improvement in the long range we are going to be in trouble Looks daunting that's for sure but there isn't a lot of nino's that warm from Nov-March. Many variables pointing towards blocking late Jan through Feb. If models look like crap on Jan 15th then it might be panic time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Warm waters off the NC coast can often favor baroclinic forcing which in turn can help form strong coastal storms off our coast. The negative is it also can allow those strong storms to drag warmer air further inland as well. I think that was what NCrain was alluding to. Also, long range modeling is certainly making small improvements. CFS beginning January 3-8th is cooler, EPS finally shows weak PNA ridging and a weak trough over the central US. These are good trends in the right direction, I like what I see for the early January pattern change. Agreed, like watching a turtle run though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 From NWS Raleigh...going to be close if we finish the month +10, ensembles have a solid week+ of +15-20F anomolies. Through December 18, the December temperature in Raleigh is averaging 10.0 degrees above normal, Greensboro 10.2 and Fayetteville 10.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 You really don't need negative nao or ao to get winter storms in the se. It's over hyped in a sense. Sure I'd love to see them both lock in neg, but weve scored just as many times without them as we have with them both negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 You really don't need negative nao or ao to get winter storms in the se. It's over hyped in a sense. Sure I'd love to see them both lock in neg, but weve scored just as many times without them as we have with them both negative. Timing is the key. You can have a cold pattern with favorable indices but no moisture to work with, we've seen that many times. Then you can have a pattern like now with plenty of moisture but no cold to be found. Getting the timing of a disturbance moving in with favorable HP or cold air in place along with the right track are the biggest factors. We definitely need to be in at least an average pattern though because the blowtorch pattern like now keeps the cold way up in Canada. Good snowpack to our north helps significant as well. Here in the south we just need so many things to come together to get a good snow. Hopefully this January-February lines up just right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Btw the changes in the GFS from 18z to 00z are almost laughable. The 18z had the 500mb low in the Great Lakes and the 00z for the same time has it in southern Texas/Mexico. Euro has been consistently showing the southern Texas path and the GFS was stubbornly taking it up through the Midwest. Now it's shifted towards the Euro solution. I've been watching the Euro vs GFS closely for the past several weeks for when we get a real winter storm to track. The Euro has consistently been the leader with the GFS giving in to it as the event gets closer. The high res Euro has done decent with precip so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Btw the changes in the GFS from 18z to 00z are almost laughable. The 18z had the 500mb low in the Great Lakes and the 00z for the same time has it in southern Texas/Mexico. Euro has been consistently showing the southern Texas path and the GFS was stubbornly taking it up through the Midwest. Now it's shifted towards the Euro solution. I've been watching the Euro vs GFS closely for the past several weeks for when we get a real winter storm to track. The Euro has consistently been the leader with the GFS giving in to it as the event gets closer. The high res Euro has done decent with precip so far. In what timeframe are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 In what timeframe are you referring to? After hour 180. Here are the two comparisons below. 18z GFS hour 216 00z GFS hour 210 For comparison here is the 12z Euro at approximately the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Mt. Washington is running about 17 degrees above avg for the month, going to be the warmest December on record, easily! So it's torchy everywhere in the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Mt. Washington is running about 17 degrees above avg for the month, going to be the warmest December on record, easily! So it's torchy everywhere in the east! . We're this close, why stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Mt. Washington is running about 17 degrees above avg for the month, going to be the warmest December on record, easily! So it's torchy everywhere in the east! Lol yeah the only place that's not a torch is the west. Also compared to average the NE is running warmer than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's pick a model time....0z CMC-ENS says the first week of Jan will be cold across most of the conus. Edit: And yes, CMC has a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's pick a model time....0z CMC-ENS says the first week of Jan will be cold across most of the conus. Edit: And yes, CMC has a cold bias. that looks like a classic El Nino pattern across the southern portion of the state's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 that looks like a classic El Nino pattern across the southern portion of the state's. It's curious that so many nino's start showing what we consider canonical Nino look starting mid-Jan (aletuian low, southern trough). Well let's hope that what develops, looks like what ensembles are moving towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 indices look better today for the LR: PNA - Most members going positive NAO - Widespread of member solutions, but it would average near neutral AO - Widespread of member solutions; which would still average slightly positive, but would have many members negative http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's curious that so many nino's start showing what we consider canonical Nino look starting mid-Jan (aletuian low, southern trough). Well let's hope that what develops, looks like what ensembles are moving towards.You say comical , I say midooki- niño ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I'm just glad it can snow deep into Mexico while the SE gets virtually nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 No wonder the strat was so active on the 12z GFS Op, look at that high between scandi/greenland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Fishel with an interesting tweet....go big or go home for Xmas Eve. Greg Fishel @gbfishel 18m18 minutes ago Since 1887 in the Raleigh area, we have never experienced 80 degree warmth after December 10. We have a shot on Christmas Eve day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Not a bad look, Pack! We need that low to move out of the EPO region and the Aleutian low to retrograde slightly, but that's still a far better map than we've seen in a good while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Not a bad look, Pack! We need that low to move out of the EPO region and the Aleutian low to retrograde slightly, but that's still a far better map than we've seen in a good while. GFS throwing out some fantasy garbage too...09 part deux. This should really go in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 GFS starting to poke at it a little more, think this would get better as we approach new years...wonder if we get a little something first week of Jan and something bigger/better end of Jan, total wag though. And by something I mean SSWE, not snow. Edit: Still PV right over the pole throughout run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Fishel with an interesting tweet....go big or go home for Xmas Eve. Greg Fishel @gbfishel 18m18 minutes ago Since 1887 in the Raleigh area, we have never experienced 80 degree warmth after December 10. We have a shot on Christmas Eve day. Brad p. mentioned this morning that a hybrid wedge of sorts could keep temps cooler (60's) in Charlotte. but if the possible hybrid wedge doesn't form, upper 70's are a decent probability. So sad to hear honestly lol. In other news, the past 2 runs of the GFS dropped some snow in northern NC (It's the GFS of course). But the fact that The GFS and Euro are showing signs of life might mean we have something coming that's worth watching for in the not too distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 GEFS goes insane days 12+, not even going to post it until EPS shows it....#blocking/epo/pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I'm just glad it can snow deep into Mexico while the SE gets virtually nothing.All this negativity is unnerving! The legion of gloom does not have room for a third! I'm gonna go with a Christmas high of 64 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 All this negativity is unnerving! The legion of gloom does not have room for a third! I'm gonna go with a Christmas high of 64 imby I just made like 17 posts today that have been all positive...I got to get some points for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I just made like 17 posts today that have been all positive...I got to get some points for that!I've seen that! It's a Christmas miracle!Good posts! Models finally kind of , sort of , agreeing on a pattern change!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I've seen that! It's a Christmas miracle! Good posts! Models finally kind of , sort of , agreeing on a pattern change!? Pattern will change, I am thinking this is a head fake though...first week of Jan we get a glimpse and then we revert to some crap pattern until atleast the 20th and then we see some changes into Feb. Going to be a long 4 weeks. Think someone in the east sees something first week of Jan, probably mtns up through MA to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 One can dream - even if the GFS is probably hallucinating a bit!I like the looks of this RDU Meteogram for 1/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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