Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 LOL...I think you posted this the same time I posted the above. I feel a tear coming to my eye.... Ha! Great minds and stuff. Even though it currently and will continue to "feel like forever", the changes showing up seem a bit ahead of schedule. Yea, the blue blob from hell at the top of the world sucks but other important things seen to be getting better. Heck, a strong GOA vortex can ruin a perfectly good ao/nao combo. So I suppose we just focus on the positives like we always do and complain about lack of snow like we always do. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Ha! Great minds and stuff. Even though it currently and will continue to "feel like forever", the changes showing up seem a bit ahead of schedule. Yea, the blue blob from hell at the top of the world sucks but other important things seen to be getting better. Heck, a strong GOA vortex can ruin a perfectly good ao/nao combo. So I suppose we just focus on the positives like we always do and complain about lack of snow like we always do. Haha The control has some nice blocking around the pole and really pumps heights in the EPO region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Tough forecast right now for any met for Christmas. 1 hand you have a stubborn GFS that has trended COLDER and is barely above normal...I think like 64 for my high here, while the doc has us at 77......They are both stubborn and I could see either verifying. The problem is the pattern....Which makes me lean more toward the doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 What happened to the Christmas Day torch and record temperatures? Christmas Day Sunny, with a high near 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I thought the doc caved a bit to GFS on this one...not as torch like...but 18z could cave to doc...tough one although GFS has been steady with less torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 What happened to the Christmas Day torch and record temperatures? Christmas Day Sunny, with a high near 61. Yeah 61 is bad enough but certainly better than pushing 80 lol.....MHX is still got us at 69 for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 By this time next week, my hope is that we can be talking about this "decent" step at a closer range and see an actual "good" step start to show up consistently in the LR. If that can be achieved, then we are indeed on the right track. If we're still chasing mirages, then that will not be good. Ancient wisdom says warm Christmas, cold New Years, and you can count on it. Colder than Xmas because the ancient people of wisdom could read the lay of the land, and read the clouds, count moons...and they knew, knew from knowledge handed down from elder to newbie over millions of years, that when it gets on toward Jan. it starts to get cold for real, lol. Ok, so I told you you might be able to predict another Christmas storm, but Goofie must have been standing wrong, or not had a substantial breakfast, so now the end to the end of the worl..... ummm, the next storm to track comes at New Years, right on time! Remember the ancients wrestled sabre toothed tigers, so show some respect Trust in the uggg! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I really like we are heading in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 There's hope... Ending a trip at Biltmore and saw some flakes flying in Asheville!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 What happened to the Christmas Day torch and record temperatures? Christmas Day Sunny, with a high near 61. I think cold air damming may be going to be why we would be cooler that day in parts of both Carolinas. The Euro shows some of that here and that model will probably end up right. Other parts of the SE should be in the torch. Of course if the 12z GFS is right, the torch is gone for many more of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Yeah 61 is bad enough but certainly better than pushing 80 lol.....MHX is still got us at 69 for Christmas Mid 60's look like a given and the min temps might not get below mid 50's. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Krdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Ancient wisdom says warm Christmas, cold New Years, and you can count on it. Colder than Xmas because the ancient people of wisdom could read the lay of the land, and read the clouds, count moons...and they knew, knew from knowledge handed down from elder to newbie over millions of years, that when it gets on toward Jan. it starts to get cold for real, lol. Ok, so I told you you might be able to predict another Christmas storm, but Goofie must have been standing wrong, or not had a substantial breakfast, so now the end to the end of the worl..... ummm, the next storm to track comes at New Years, right on time! Remember the ancients wrestled sabre toothed tigers, so show some respect Trust in the uggg! T From the Urban dictionary " uggg usually people say it when they're bored or can't think of anything else to say or talk about(especially over instant messages)*it doesnt always have to be spelled 'uggg' there can be more 'g's*" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Man, no way to sugar coat the 6z GFS. After our freezing temps this weekend, most will not see freezing temps for the foreseeable future (going by the model). There is cold air in Canada, but no mechanism to bring it down. It's really looking like mid January now to place our bench mark (for a flip; hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Just came across this page - it's a 5 day GFS forecast animation of the jet stream at 300mb in 12 hour increments . http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Man, no way to sugar coat the 6z GFS. After our freezing temps this weekend, most will not see freezing temps for the foreseeable future (going by the model). There is cold air in Canada, but no mechanism to bring it down. It's really looking like mid January now to place our bench mark (for a flip; hopefully). Although I love looking at the GFS, I honestly do not put much if any validity in it past 7 days if that. For example, I would be willing to bet that the 12z would be totally different in the long range - one thing is for sure - most modelling is point to a wet period over the next two weeks if not longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Wet with average temperatures doesn't seem like too bad of a combo to me? EC doesn't imply normal or average. It's equal chances of above, below and normal for that region. It means there are no definitive atmos signals coming together either way and these regions could have the highest variability during the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Man, no way to sugar coat the 6z GFS. After our freezing temps this weekend, most will not see freezing temps for the foreseeable future (going by the model). There is cold air in Canada, but no mechanism to bring it down. It's really looking like mid January now to place our bench mark (for a flip; hopefully). Yea, I deleted my temp files hoping it somehow pulled something up from back in Oct or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 This is what I thought we would see come mid-Jan, aleutian low, high heights into central western Canada and a plains to SE to trough. Granted it's the 15 day EPS but it's a start and it's probably rushing things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 This is what I thought we would see come mid-Jan, aleutian low, high heights into central western Canada and a plains to SE to trough. Granted it's the 15 day EPS but it's a start and it's probably rushing things...This cold snap is not really going to help with the pre - emergent!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Models keep on weakening the CAD next week. Looks like it's back to the 70's next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 This cold snap is not really going to help with the pre - emergent!? This is a double pre-emergent type winter...mid Dec and early March since Feb will be so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 What a great change in the teleconnections on the Euro. AO goes negative on the 27th and stays negative until the end of the run. NAO goes negative on the 26th and stays negative until the end of the run. PNA is slightly negative on the 27 and stays just barely negative. EPO stays pretty positive. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Keep a sharp eye on 27th 28th time frame. Almost a icy setup at 5h for cad areas looking at last night's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Keep a sharp eye on 27th 28th time frame. Almost a icy setup at 5h for cad areas looking at last night's models. Time to start the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 What a great change in the teleconnections on the Euro. AO goes negative on the 27th and stays negative until the end of the run. NAO goes negative on the 26th and stays negative until the end of the run. PNA is slightly negative on the 27 and stays just barely negative. EPO stays pretty positive. I will take it. Nice. I'm pretty much on the Euro train for this winter, the GFS was terrible in early Dec. it gave us a -AO/-NAO combo for mid December in the LR. The -AO/-NAO might be transient with both heading towards neutral at the end of the run but it's a start and it's within 10 days so i'll take it. As long as we average a -AO/-NAO for January as a whole I don't care if it stays neutral until mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Keep a sharp eye on 27th 28th time frame. Almost a icy setup at 5h for cad areas looking at last night's models.So we went from no sign of cold into mid January, to a possible threat before New Years!? Positive changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Time to start the thread? Stolen and posted to the Winter catchphrase thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 So we went from no sign of cold into mid January, to a possible threat before New Years!? Positive changes Believe the "threat" is more to our north. Mid-Atlantic area. I like the look though. As Jon pointed out, less out in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Coming around ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 And for next Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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