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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Yeah the weeklies show changes into weeks 3 and 4 but it's still west coast trough and east coast ridging.  2m temps are still end to end AN for the east.  I imagine for the MA to NE it might be something to build on and it's probably could be snowy for them but for us in the SE it's still not good.  Yeah it doesn't have a big low over AK but still no blocking.  Where is the canonical nino look, is it ever coming....meh....

 

Edit:  Week 4, yeah this is great for the SE... :bag:

 

a101b80ddebb5166b5d8dfdd2745cc1e.jpg

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Yeah the weeklies show changes into weeks 3 and 4 but it's still west coast trough and east coast ridging. 2m temps are still end to end AN for the east. I imagine for the MA to NE it might be something to build on and it's probably could be snowy for them but for us in the SE it's still not good. Yeah it doesn't have a big low over AK but still no blocking. Where is the canonical nino look, is it ever coming....meh....

Edit: Week 4, yeah this is great for the SE... :bag:

a101b80ddebb5166b5d8dfdd2745cc1e.jpg

Now I know what the weeklies remind me of...it's the pattern we just saw the end of Nov which led to this torchtastic pattern we are in now. So ensembles are showing a relaxation around New Years and then weeklies indicate a return to what we are seeing now, LOL. Makes sense, this is a very stable pattern and nothing has shaken it up. Until something shakes things up it will be cold in the west.

2a497cb41a1dc53783593979fb3adceb.jpg

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Yo it's ya boy 18z Analog weather lovers!!! You can just call me 18z. I see we in here talking about what we all love WEATHER! I'm in here cause I got some questions cause y'all prob smarter than me about weather! What up with this winter?!? It be WHACK! I walk outside and it not cold at all, don't bee needing not coat or jacket. I thought December ment it was suppose to be cold?!? Am I right lolol!! Welp been reading the blogs and forums and I think we prob in for some change soon cuz the HEAT gotta go, I done prepped to much for winter to b this warm. I'm kinda like one them doomsday prepers cuz I heard El Niño ment business in winter and I don't want to be off guard ya here?? Well looking at January think it going to be a TRANSITION MONTH!!!! We gone start with this hot mess but it gon cool off little bit at a time. February gone done have a blizzard I'm telling you. IT GONE SNOW BAD ON FEBRUARY 16 you hears it here first from 18zAnalog!!!! I think we see another decent snow on March 3. I heard some thunder last night so I think we see some flurries by the new year. Lastly I been lurking last couple days and dis place can get little hostile at time. Y'all gotta let weather do what it gone do just gotta be patience. Moderators are doing a good job keeping everything under control!!! Let's just have fun and enjoy the weather. Rubberband type winter my thinking. Good night!!!

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New "model" called the EXCAM via Al Marinaro http://models.wxmidwest.com

 

Basically it takes the CPC Days 6-10 and CPC Days 8-14 Analog forecast maps, pulls the dates from those maps, and generates extended forecasts for weeks 2-6 based on those Analog dates. Interesting concept, it's a lot easier to view these than try to look at each analog year manually, so I bet we see this utilized a lot by forecasters and weenies alike.

 

Based on these alone, looks like the pattern gets changed up mid-late January.

 

Here's the Week 5 and Week 6 forecasts from CPC 6-10 and 8-14 Analog forecasts:

 

JJ0ls79.gif

uUEeP66.gif

 

40xn7fv.gif

b8ek0Ji.gif

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New "model" called the EXCAM via Al Marinaro http://models.wxmidwest.com/ 

 

Basically it takes the CPC Days 6-10 and CPC Days 8-14 Analog forecast maps, pulls the dates from those maps, and generates extended forecasts for weeks 2-6 based on those Analog dates. Interesting concept, it's a lot easier to view these than try to look at each analog year manually, so I bet we see this utilized a lot by forecasters and weenies alike.

 

Based on these alone, looks like the pattern gets changed up mid-late January.

 

Here's the Week 5 and Week 6 forecasts from CPC 6-10 and 8-14 Analog forecasts:

 

JJ0ls79.gif

uUEeP66.gif

 

40xn7fv.gif

b8ek0Ji.gif

Jon,

 

Cool.

 

The link is not hot though - can you recheck it?

 

Thanks!

 

Phil

 

~~~~~~~~~

 

It's working now - did you do something?  LOL

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Yeah the weeklies show changes into weeks 3 and 4 but it's still west coast trough and east coast ridging.  2m temps are still end to end AN for the east.  I imagine for the MA to NE it might be something to build on and it's probably could be snowy for them but for us in the SE it's still not good.  Yeah it doesn't have a big low over AK but still no blocking.  Where is the canonical nino look, is it ever coming....meh....

 

Edit:  Week 4, yeah this is great for the SE... :bag:

 

a101b80ddebb5166b5d8dfdd2745cc1e.jpg

 

Well that's miles better than the pattern we'll see next week.  Pacific pattern is good with nice split flow underneath W Canada ridging.  +AO/+NAO issues remain.

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Well that's miles better than the pattern we'll see next week. Pacific pattern is good with nice split flow underneath W Canada ridging. +AO/+NAO issues remain.

I agree and I've scored the last two winters with a positive AO/NAO of course we had a massive -EPO that was locked in

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It'll be pretty hilarious if it does snow on February 16th by chance, ha. It'll be the 18z Analog Winter Storm.

 

If I were throwing out random dates, Feb 9-18th or so would be the area due to previous experience in Columbia, SC storms.  We can almost be certain baring this pattern sticking.. there will be a Winter threat around that time.  Looking at old data around the Southeast shows it as a prime time.

 

Now, if we do get a big storm on that exact date, we can start the petition to bring him back.  Hah.

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