deltadog03 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 88 but not sure we drop as fast. It was a two year Nino like this year and +PDO/+QBO. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/January.88.anomaly.gif ok thanks...I will have to see what the 2m temps looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC just UPDATED for DJF....coldest run yet...lol. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html If that verified it would mean an epic JAN/FEB! I don't buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 ok thanks...I will have to see what the 2m temps looked like. Are these any help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC just UPDATED for DJF....coldest run yet...lol. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html If that verified it would mean an epic JAN/FEB! I don't buy it Words, huh huh ... Huh huh huh!They got any pictures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Words, huh huh ... Huh huh huh! They got any pictures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 temp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gifNice ! Thanks!Looks like we have the only cold air in the world , almost! Where as now, we have the most heat of anywhere in the world ! JB will have that all over twitter by tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 temp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif Nice! Considering how warm we're gonna be for December, January and February must be cold. That'd be awesome if it verifies, especially if we get an active STJ. How well has the JAMSTEC verified in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nice! Considering how warm we're gonna be for December, January and February must be cold. That'd be awesome if it verifies, especially if we get an active STJ. How well has the JAMSTEC verified in the past? Good question - the answer is above my pay grade. I just had that in my bag and when I saw a related post, threw it out there FWIW. I'll bet if we can wake him, Jon might know the relative verification rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New IRI..not sure if anyone has posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New IRI..not sure if anyone has posted it. I honestly have not heard of this model! Where is it from, who puts it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I honestly have not heard of this model! Where is it from, who puts it out?Columbia http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.eduI only started following it last year. They put out monthly forecasts. Their 1 mo lead forecasts don't do too bad, you can check the verification charts on the website as well. They do pretty well JFM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nice! Considering how warm we're gonna be for December, January and February must be cold. That'd be awesome if it verifies, especially if we get an active STJ. How well has the JAMSTEC verified in the past? In my opinion, it's the one seasonal model I never fail to check; however, I can't buy this update. Too cold! Jan/Feb would have to be epic to verify & while they may be cooler than normal no way that much...or at least I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New IRI..not sure if anyone has posted it. Nice, but not sure how much credence you can give a model run on an Atari 2300! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nice, but not sure how much credence you can give a model run on an Atari 2300! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Good question - the answer is above my pay grade. I just had that in my bag and when I saw a related post, threw it out there FWIW. I'll bet if we can wake him, Jon might know the relative verification rate. Not sure about the particular verification score...but here's the eye-ball test. It checks out pretty well, I'd say. I have heard people complain about the JAMSTEC more recently getting November wrong I believe... It may be good this year however since it's an pacific and other(s) ocean circulation model or something of that sort (that's the best I got)...the model itself is called SINTEX-F1 if anyone wants to hunt down some scores. Temps vs Actual Precip vs Actual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Are these any help? cd174.64.77.136.349.19.19.32.prcp.png comphour.QOShz2_FQR.gif Yes..TY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nice, but not sure how much credence you can give a model run on an Atari 2300! ha! I'm sure if they just hit a "smooth" button it would look great, but alas, they forget to hit it every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 ha! I'm sure if they just hit a "smooth" button it would look great, but alas, they forget to hit it every time. Somebody should tell him thats an Atari 2600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 That is a 2600. The 2300 only had four toggle switches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 That is a 2600. The 2300 only had four toggle switches. Haven't lived til you had the 5600 or coleecovision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It is time for your daily Euro teleconnections. AO is moving down, but still a + 2 on December 29. The NAO move to Neutral on the 29th. PNA starts moving up, but still -2, EPO crashes negative on Christmas day and hangs around -1. That is an impressive drop on the EPO. The GFS has the PNA moving to Neutral on the 27th, so let's go with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 WSI's EVPN analog model for Jan...it's done well in the past. Good news it looks cooler than Dec, LOL...#yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It is time for your daily Euro teleconnections. AO is moving down, but still a + 2 on December 29. The NAO move to Neutral on the 29th. PNA starts moving up, but still -2, EPO crashes negative on Christmas day and hangs around -1. That is an impressive drop on the EPO. The GFS has the PNA moving to Neutral on the 27th, so let's go with that model. I think we might be seeing some good hints in the LR in regards to teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It's funny that for several months now people have been scared of a 98 repeat but now..... This winter will end up warmer than 98, LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GEFS/EPS both agree on a more zonal look to start off the new year. No getting around the +AO though...#FabFeb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nice stable 3 wave pattern there, Pack. All of the + height anoms are in the wrong places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Pretty soon the day 15 on the GFS will be mid March, and we will still be looking for cold and snow, but then we can atleast admit defeat and say " thanks" to the anal logs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nice stable 3 wave pattern there, Pack. All of the + height anoms are in the wrong places. Pretty soon the day 15 on the GFS will be mid March, and we will still be looking for cold and snow, but then we can atleast admit defeat and say " thanks" to the anal logs! Well the good news is....hmmmm....there really isn't any good news unless you like warmth/rain for the next several weeks. Maybe one good thing is, well I can't think of anything positive to say. The JAMSTEC is just sad...is that uplifting. #superninowarmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Well the good news is....hmmmm....there really isn't any good news unless you like warmth/rain for the next several weeks. Maybe one good thing is, well I can't think of anything positive to say. The JAMSTEC is just sad...is that uplifting. #superninowarmthThought the CANSIPS was rockin!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Some of these people that have been wanting a pattern change during the first week of January are gonna be waiting ( in shorts) till at least mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.