griteater Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The AO flipped negative at the very end of Jan in '83...and Lorenzo Charles slammed it home 2 months later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's a grind man. Like a nasty drawn out bar alley fight when you're outnumbered 3-1. lol. You'll walk away a bloody mess but eventually heal and feel good again. Ian originally posted about this in our winter thread and I pointed it out again in the Dec thread. We're dealing with one heck of a stubborn height anomaly above us. Been there for months. And is even stronger right now. ridge.JPG ridge2.JPG We aren't going anywhere until that moves out and up. I do believe it will. It was there in Dec 82 for the most part. Jan 83 was definitely a solid transition month both with that height anomaly and also the AO. Had the AO not flipped in Jan but waited until Feb, the outcome of that winter in both of our regions would have been quite different. First half of Jan showed the +height anomaly moving NE and but the big +AO/NAO hanging tough. At least there was a +PNA during the period. jan83.JPG We could potentially be moving in that direction (slowly) as we close the month and move into Jan. Last nights eps showed higher heights poking into the pac NW and the west trough axis moving from the west coast to the intermountain west. Not a bad thing even though the EPS does noting with the godawful ridge above us. But it's different at least. Mid latitude stuff is much more variable than the HL stuff. My guess is the PNA flips in some fashion in the next 3 weeks. It's not going to stay stormy out west for months on end. Just doesn't work like that. They will ridge out at some point. What that means for us remains to be seen. A +pna by itself is still a fluke pattern. Timing vs blocking...oh when will we ever see blocking again...lol Second half of Jan 83 is when things got right. AO flipped + STJ. jan832.JPG My worry is the AO this year takes too much time to get right (or worse...never gets right). Just gotta wait it out and hope we see meaningful change as more and more of early Jan is exposed on LR guidance. In 87-88 we had a +AO/+NAO in Jan and we got one large event on Jan 7th giving RDU above average snowfall...but we had a -EPO ridge to help us out. I agree from my research on moderate + strong ninos, we would like that flip the earlier the better, but if it comes by February we're still in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Thanks Bob! Yeah, the AO is just nuts right now, seems very formidable to see a change anytime soon, but agree that it will change end of Jan. Edit: I am also thinking we get into Jan and look back and laugh that this was all very normal and we should have been more patient... I posted this in our banter thread but the warm winter months over the past several years has got to flip eventually, winter has turned into a one month deal now...look at the lack of BN winter months (DJF) since Jan 2011. 3 out of the past 14 winter months have been below normal, no wonder my avatar looks the way it looks. Obviously the NAO plays a huge role in this, it's been negative one time in these 14 winter months (2/13). The other 2 cold winter months had super -EPO. BN: 2/13, 1/2014, 2/2015 (3 Total) N-AN: 2/2011, 12/2011, 1/2012, 2/2012, 12/2012, 1/2013, 12/2013, 2/2014, 12/2014, 1/2015, 12/2015 (11 Total) Part of me wants to believe we get the flip this year like 82-83. You can see in this graph that 82-83 was god awful until mid Jan. The beginning of Jan was raging+. Kind of like what we are about to see over the next 15 days. Could see some days with +3 coming up. My pessimistic side is based only on hindsight of the last 2 years and also data I have showing a Dec +1 monthly doesn't bode well for JF statistically. With one good exception....82-83. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 BTW, I was comparing Christmas Day for all moderate + strong Ninos and got this: Which is interesting considering our current pattern: That ridge placement is pretty exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 And to add to my last post, statistically the anomalous + or - AO periods tend to last 45-60 days. Lots of data to back that up. However, the cases show mixed results with all out flips (for better or worse) or just a temporary relax and reload. I've only dug into DJFM and haven't include Nov in my # crunching. Theoretically our current +AO regime began in Nov. Nov 1st or 15th depending on which way you look at it. All things considered I would expect at least a break from the anomalous period during the second half of Jan. Of course the AO itself isn't the end all be all but having it on our side is an important piece of the puzzle for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The AO flipped negative at the very end of Jan in '83...and Lorenzo Charles slammed it home 2 months later. Post of the day nominee. Looking at the 6z GFS, it looks like a good southern stream gets going during the course of the run. So, that's a good thing, I guess. Great posts in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Post of the day nominee. Looking at the 6z GFS, it looks like a good southern stream gets going during the course of the run. So, that's a good thing, I guess. Great posts in here today. Yeah 12Z running now but the 06Z had several decent storms towards the end of the run with tracks shifting east with each one that is typical of a pattern change.....I for one think that by March most folks will be happy with the way JFM turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Yeah 12Z running now but the 06Z had several decent storms towards the end of the run with tracks shifting east with each one that is typical of a pattern change.....I for one think that by March most folks will be happy with the way JFM turn out.Step down process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 "Delayed not denied. Had the right idea and pattern pegged, just off on timing a couple of weeks. " "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got." In all seriousness I'm a big fan of his. Have been since early 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'm going on record. It's official so book it. Raleigh, espeacilly Apex and wake forest will achieve double digit snowfall before April 2015. Be of good cheer and brick have no fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'm going on record. It's official so book it. Raleigh, espeacilly Apex and wake forest will achieve double digit snowfall before April 2015. Be of good cheer and brick have no fear. I'll take that bet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Long range GFS shows the ridge building over the West and more into Canada with the STJ undercutting it. It's the GFS so probably not right at this range but an interesting change to see at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Long range GFS shows the ridge building over the West and more into Canada with the STJ undercutting it. It's the GFS so probably not right at this range but an interesting change to see at least. Days 14-16 on GEFS is best look we have had yet, still a blowtorch but it's a step, small step considering it's day 14+....(+PNA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 One other interesting observation, the GFS anomalies for January 1st are remarkably similar to the CANSIPS for January. Anyone else notice this? The anomalies in Canada are similar as are those across the Deep South and into Montana. CANSIPS 12z GFS 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Long range GFS shows the ridge building over the West and more into Canada with the STJ undercutting it. It's the GFS so probably not right at this range but an interesting change to see at least. Gotta get rid of that big negative anomaly over AK and in the GOA. No good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Gotta get rid of that big negative anomaly over AK and in the GOA. No good.I'm gonna need alot of CAN SIPS, if this dumpster fire doesn't quickly show signs of a turnaround ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Gotta get rid of that big negative anomaly over AK and in the GOA. No good. While it's clearly not great , it's better than what we currently have. Height heights building in WC is a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 While it's clearly not great , it's better than what we currently have. Height heights building in WC is a start Agreed. But as long as those anoms are there as well as that big red blob north of the GL hangs out there, that suggests to me that any PNA ridging would be transient. I could be wrong, though. Either way, that frame is a step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I wonder if the MJO will spend any time in the left side of the chart this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Thinking Jan will step down to the freezer finally. Good news is Christmas is looking colder now. Front moves in last 12/24. 12z GFS actually has a snow threat at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 And to add to my last post, statistically the anomalous + or - AO periods tend to last 45-60 days. Lots of data to back that up. However, the cases show mixed results with all out flips (for better or worse) or just a temporary relax and reload. I've only dug into DJFM and haven't include Nov in my # crunching. Theoretically our current +AO regime began in Nov. Nov 1st or 15th depending on which way you look at it. All things considered I would expect at least a break from the anomalous period during the second half of Jan. Of course the AO itself isn't the end all be all but having it on our side is an important piece of the puzzle for sure. My estimate is that the Nov-Dec AO finishes as the 3rd highest since 1950 at +1.57. Here are the top 10 highest Nov-Dec AO yrs with subsequent winter AO (crazy that 3 have occurred within the last 5 yrs) If we limit it to the top 7 highest in El Nino winters, we see that most had an AO flip to negative, but not til Feb-Mar. The two that didn't were contaminated by Pinatubo, in which case +AO was favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'll take that bet!! April 1 2016. Corrected lolGreat disco today. Glad I could contribute my clutter to the discussuon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 April 1 2016. Corrected lol Great disco today. Glad I could contribute my clutter to the discussuon. All kidding aside, I agree with you on that call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Merry Christmas from Europe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Decent warming in the stratosphere on the 18z GFS run. PV doesn't look nearly as consolidated as previous runs. However its the 384 GFS so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Call me stupid, stubborn or all the above..lol I really like where we are heading. I think JFM are going to be good. The strat warming is getting more and more impressive on the GFS and EURO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 12 GEFS also shows signs of the PV becoming elongated in the LR: First good sign PV-wise I've seen on the GEFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Yeah I think its safe to think that the models are homing in on "A" pattern change not sure if its gonna be "THE" pattern change we all want....but it sure looks like the wall to wall heat is gonna at least become more seasonal into the beginning of Jan and then hopefully blocky by mid to late Jan and Feb......I think at the least those looking to jump off the cliff and cancel the entire winter have a reason to step back some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Question....do we have any years (analogs) to where we have a rapidly falling NINO for the heart of winter....& its more Central based vs East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Question....do we have any years (analogs) to where we have a rapidly falling NINO for the heart of winter....& its more Central based vs East?88 but not sure we drop as fast. It was a two year Nino like this year and +PDO/+QBO. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/January.88.anomaly.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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