2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[deltadog03]

Question for my analog guys/gals and map guru's.....Need to see what JFM looked like in 57 please.

[pcbjr]

Question for my analog guys/gals and map guru's.....Need to see what JFM looked like in 57 please.

I'm no guru but will try - at what level? 500, 1000, surface air temps?

 

Does this help?

 

[griteater]

Question for my analog guys/gals and map guru's.....Need to see what JFM looked like in 57 please.

Delta - you can get temps and precip here - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/

 

500mb (and other levels) here - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.v2.pl

[pcbjr]

Question for my analog guys/gals and map guru's.....Need to see what JFM looked like in 57 please.

Or this?

 

 

If so, here's hoping it's not a precursor ....

[deltadog03]

all the above yes.....ewww...don't like that last map...hahaah

[deltadog03]

Thank you everyone!!!  FFC said that DEC 56 was warmest on record here at KMCN.....72 (DEC) was 9th warmest...

[griteater]

Question - and very serious -

 

Other than Alaska not being quite so cold on 12/31 as opposed to 12/25, and the SE not being quite so over the top on above temp anomalies between Christmas and New Year's, where is there any dynamic showing up to break this pattern? I'm quoting/re-posting Ryan since this is his info and credit is due for the source - his "lock" phrase is what I'm asking about (not challenging Ryan but just wondering what, if anything, short of a SSWE (which Jon has so astutely already discussed), would/could "unlock" this pattern)? Any other likely dynamics that might come in to play?

 

Discussion?

Generally, the pattern with El Ninos improves thru winter and peaks in Feb (climo best pattern).  So, we should see some level of improvement with the Pacific pattern as we go forward, but it's going to be a while based on where we are right now...and the strength of this nino opens the possibility of limited improvement.  As far as the AO goes, IMO it's Feb to early March or bust...decent chance we see a favorable flip, but no guarantees in +QBO/lowering solar combo...not to mention beginning winter with a monster PV

[pcbjr]

Generally, the pattern with El Ninos improves thru winter and peaks in Feb (climo best pattern).  So, we should see some level of improvement with the Pacific pattern as we go forward, but it's going to be a while based on where we are right now...and the strength of this nino opens the possibility of limited improvement.  As far as the AO goes, IMO it's Feb to early March or bust...decent chance we see a favorable flip, but no guarantees in +QBO/lowering solar combo...not to mention beginning winter with a monster PV

 Thought so  :~(

 

We need to tell Delta Dog to look at the same period in 1958 - the blue would, well, cream him ....

[snowlover91]

Question - and very serious -

 

Other than Alaska not being quite so cold on 12/31 as opposed to 12/25, and the SE not being quite so over the top on above temp anomalies between Christmas and New Year's, where is there any dynamic showing up to break this pattern? I'm quoting/re-posting Ryan since this is his info and credit is due for the source - his "lock" phrase is what I'm asking about (not challenging Ryan but just wondering what, if anything, short of a SSWE (which Jon has so astutely already discussed), would/could "unlock" this pattern)? Any other likely dynamics that might come in to play?

Not sure if you have access to the Euro weeklies but the control run gives a good idea on how the pattern could break, and quite suddenly. It doesn't split the PV from what I can tell, however it does displace it to the south and beats down the ridge over the eastern US. At the same time a massive PNA ridge builds west of the Rocky Mountains causing a sharp trough to form east of the Mississippi River. This all happens in a 2-3 day window and is probably overdone, however it gives a good idea how the pattern could change with a PV displacement or split. Much more likely to happen imo is the displacement option and for a big storm around January 5-6th to setup this pattern change. Also, FWIW, the control run of the weeklies takes the EPO off the charts, below -6, at the time the pattern change occurs. It's a big outlier compared to its ensembles but those who don't have access might like to know.

[Jon]

I wanted to respond to NCRain in here instead of Banter so more people can see the data, it's good.

 

When looking at the modern era nino's it's not pretty, probably should have guessed it would be like this.  Of the previous 8 nino's we have had 5 below average for snowfall and 3 right at average, this is for RDU, I am sure other locations are different.

 

2015 (???)

2014 (+AO DJF, avg snowfall)

2010 (- AO DJF, avg snowfall)

2007 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall)

2005 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall)

2003 (-AO DJF, avg snowfall)

1998 (-AO DJF, below avg snowfall)

1995 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall)

1992 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall)

 

Funny we were doing the same thing today but we both came to different conclusions...haha

I was looking at Moderate + Strong + Very Strong Ninos only, leaving weak out. A majority of those years you listed are weak and moderate, with 97-98 being the only strong year in there, which will skew the data I think. Overall, weak ninos are less snowy than strong ones, and strong ones less snowy than very strong ones, at RDU and overall for a lot of cities on the east coast.

 

So the years I compared were:

57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 72-73, 82-83, 86-87, 87-88, 91-92, 02-03, 09-10

 

Here's what I found:

*preliminary data

 

Keep in mind the sample size is small (that's what sucks about strong Ninos, there aren't many)

 

In all 10 El Nino years, the trends are as follows:      
     
50% of years have a +AO in Dec and 70% of years have a +NAO in Dec.     
50% of years have a +AO in Jan and 70% of years have a -NAO in Jan.     
70% of years have a -AO in Feb and 60% of years have a -NAO in Jan.     
     
In 5 Strong El Ninos:     
     
80% of years have a +AO in Dec and 100% of years have a +NAO in Dec.     
60% of years have a -AO in Jan and 40% of years have a -NAO in Jan.     
80% of years have a -AO in Feb and 60% of years have a -NAO in Feb.

 

So with that said, -AO/-NAO doesn't look at all important in Dec...in fact, with 8/10 years with a +AO in Dec and 10/10 with a +NAO in Dec, we'd almost be rooting for a +AO/+NAO combo until the new year if we want above average snowfall for RDU.

 

Additionally, 82-83 (very strong) and 86-87 (strong) both had multiple winter events with horrible teleconnecitons...as you can see from the picture, 82-83 had a +AO/+NAO combo DJ before flipping in Feb. Events were Jan 21, Feb 6, Feb 10, March 24 (this event was pretty much the total for the year, 7.5" for RDU)...For 86-87, again +AO/+NAO for DJ then flip for Feb. Events were Jan 1, 22, 25, Feb 16 (again large event here with 5"), 27.

 

82-83 was above average and 86-87 was average for snowfall @RDU. Both had single events with large snowfall that either met or exceeded average.

 

So with all of that said, the earlier the flip the better (after December), but still no reason to jump even if the teleconnections remain positive through January...as even if it flips by February, we still have shots at big storms that can put us at average.

[snowlover91]

00z GFS at the end of its run says hello +PNA and east coast trough! It's the GFS though but at least it's different from the same old pattern of a ridge over us and a trough out west.

[packbacker]

I wanted to respond to NCRain in here instead of Banter so more people can see the data, it's good.

 

 

Funny we were doing the same thing today but we both came to different conclusions...haha

I was looking at Moderate + Strong + Very Strong Ninos only, leaving weak out. A majority of those years you listed are weak and moderate, with 97-98 being the only strong year in there, which will skew the data I think. Overall, weak ninos are less snowy than strong ones, and strong ones less snowy than very strong ones, at RDU and overall for a lot of cities on the east coast.

 

So the years I compared were:

57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 72-73, 82-83, 86-87, 87-88, 91-92, 02-03, 09-10

 

Here's what I found:

 

*preliminary data

 

Keep in mind the sample size is small (that's what sucks about strong Ninos, there aren't many)

 

In all 10 El Nino years, the trends are as follows:      

     

50% of years have a +AO in Dec and 70% of years have a +NAO in Dec.     

50% of years have a +AO in Jan and 70% of years have a -NAO in Jan.     

70% of years have a -AO in Feb and 60% of years have a -NAO in Jan.     

     

In 5 Strong El Ninos:     

     

80% of years have a +AO in Dec and 100% of years have a +NAO in Dec.     

60% of years have a -AO in Jan and 40% of years have a -NAO in Jan.     

80% of years have a -AO in Feb and 60% of years have a -NAO in Feb.

 

So with that said, -AO/-NAO doesn't look at all important in Dec...in fact, with 8/10 years with a +AO in Dec and 10/10 with a +NAO in Dec, we'd almost be rooting for a +AO/+NAO combo until the new year if we want above average snowfall for RDU.

 

Additionally, 82-83 (very strong) and 86-87 (strong) both had multiple winter events with horrible teleconnecitons...as you can see from the picture, 82-83 had a +AO/+NAO combo DJ before flipping in Feb. Events were Jan 21, Feb 6, Feb 10, March 24 (this event was pretty much the total for the year, 7.5" for RDU)...For 86-87, again +AO/+NAO for DJ then flip for Feb. Events were Jan 1, 22, 25, Feb 16 (again large event here with 5"), 27.

 

82-83 was above average and 86-87 was average for snowfall @RDU. Both had single events with large snowfall that either met or exceeded average.

 

So with all of that said, the earlier the flip the better (after December), but still no reason to jump even if the teleconnections remain positive through January...as even if it flips by February, we still have shots at big storms that can put us at average.

Nice!   Also, the if you look at the top 10 nino's ever, 7 were snowy and 3 were duds...if you compare the what the Dec's look like it makes you want to go snow shovel shopping...#painfulpatience

[FallsLake]

The current GFS runs continue to show at least a warm Christmas Eve. A front would pass for Christmas day providing some cooling but nothing below normal. Something we can hope for is a CAD not yet seen by the models. Currently the GFS shows the high on the 22/23 moving out very quickly. But as we get closer, just maybe, we may see this possibility. I would really hate to see a tropical Christmas Eve.

[buckeyefan1]

I wouldn't call the large PNA ridges that the Euro weekly tries to build and the deep trough "normal." Furthermore the control of the Euro weekly shows two massive PNA spikes in the extended range and a tank of the EPO off the charts. This is a big change from what it has been showing previously, which was a warm east vs cold west. The Euro ensembles for the weeklies show good trends as well, which is the key. Sure long range modeling like this you don't focus on details but the trend, which is a big change from what we are seeing by early to mid January.

To claim my statements are that of a "weenie" does nothing to contribute positively to this thread, or discussion. This thread is for winter pattern discussion, which I directly addressed with the Euro weeklies. Many don't have access to this so I was providing a statement as to what they show and they indicated positive changes. Isn't that what this thread is about? I never said they were accurate or would verify. However they do agree with many other long range modeling and analog indications which all point to a change around January 10th.

You are the definition of a weenie. You have been harping on the first week of Jan as a pattern changer for a long time due to what someone else says. You often repeat what you have read on social media as gospel, like the Nino is acting like a Nina......smh. To claim the Euro weeklies are showing a SUBSTANTIAL change in the pattern the first week of Jan is false(above you now stated the 10th, so you are punting).Saying the model is TRYING to build a trough is a far cry from a SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE you stated earlier. If you don't want to be called a weenie, then stop acting like one. A positive contribution to this thread would be stating verbatim what the models are showing without adding any of your personal agenda nonsense.  

[Brick Tamland]

It seems like our weather now, especially in winter, is more and more of one extreme or the other. Either this warm pattern is going to stay locked in throughout winter, or it's going to flip in a major way and the rubber band will snap back to the other end of the extreme and we'll end up having a big winter after all. It doesn't seem we ever get anything normal or in between anymore, or a gradual change from one pattern to another. It's like a switch is flipped when the pattern does change, and we go from one extreme to the other.

[packbacker]

Bob brought this up in the MA thread...the GEFS and now EPS both agree on a more zonal look by new years, sadly this is an improvement but a necessary step to hopefully a more January canonical nino look.  If it snaps back to the big west coast trough after new years then your going to see mass panic in the east...#canonicalplease

 

 

Edit: Was going to try and sugar coat the latest CFS run for Jan but nothing can be said to dress it up, LOL.

[griteater]

Bob brought this up in the MA thread...the GEFS and now EPS both agree on a more zonal look by new years, sadly this is an improvement but a necessary step to hopefully a more January canonical nino look.  If it snaps back to the big west coast trough after new years then your going to see mass panic in the east...#canonicalplease

Ha, that's about as bad an improvement as you will ever see.  I don't know about the panic part...think we are past that stage

[nflwxman]

Weird, the new 0z CFSv2 weekly run actually looks pretty good after January 7th.  The Ridge has clearly retreated and the jet has undercut.  The monthly run, however, keeps the current pattern in place all the way towards March and looks awful.  I guess one can find whatever validation they are looking for at this range though.  In this particular run below "the rubber band" breaks around the 2nd week of January, which would be somewhat earlier than some of the analogs suggest.  The next frame (which I can't show since it's on WxBell, looks stellar with the EPO and AO both helping out).  One can hope the weeklies are correct and the monthlies are off.  Either way, it's hard to bet against persistence.

 

[packbacker]

Ha, that's about as bad an improvement as you will ever see.  I don't know about the panic part...think we are past that stage

 

LOL...I didn't know whether to curl up in the fetal position or rejoice when I saw the EPS/GEFS agree on the zonal look for new years.

New GEFS seems to be doing fairly good in the 11-15 range, although it's hard to mess up this train wreck.

[snowlover91]

You are the definition of a weenie. You have been harping on the first week of Jan as a pattern changer for a long time due to what someone else says. You often repeat what you have read on social media as gospel, like the Nino is acting like a Nina......smh. To claim the Euro weeklies are showing a SUBSTANTIAL change in the pattern the first week of Jan is false(above you now stated the 10th, so you are punting).Saying the model is TRYING to build a trough is a far cry from a SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE you stated earlier. If you don't want to be called a weenie, then stop acting like one. A positive contribution to this thread would be stating verbatim what the models are showing without adding any of your personal agenda nonsense.

Obviously we disagree. I have no personal agenda whatsoever and have been following the weather for quite awhile. I also posted my own FB forecast the first week of November on my weather page based on my own data and research. The evidence I have seen points to a pattern change the first week of January which is why I keep discussing it.

When you have seasonals like the CFS, UK, CANSIPS, and Euro weeklies showing a much better pattern for January typical of El Niño, a trough over the south and ridging out west and over Canada, then one has to consider that as an option. In my winter forecast which I've linked several times I clearly stated my reasoning behind the pattern change based on several analog years and presented the data as such. I have provided data and can provide much more if you want, I'm sticking to my guns on the early January flip.

Last but not least the Euro control does indeed show a big pattern shakeup. I can't post images here but the changes are significant. It builds two massive PNA ridges out west with deep troughs over the east. These last several days before breaking down and then rebuilding. That is a BIG change from what we are seeing currently. It also tanks the EPO off the charts negative and takes the PNA to +3. The evidence and tools we have to use continue to point to an early January flip and I will continue to post what the data shows and why I think this happens. Already the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen. This is another clue which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change and I for one am excited to see it. Last but certainly not least, I believe you can make a point of you disagree without name calling. This is about winter discussion and some have argued for a warm rest of winter without any evidence whatsoever, simply stating that a warm December means winter is over. Suffice to say I believe winter flips early January and that everything is on track.

[packbacker]

Weird, the new 0z CFSv2 weekly run actually looks pretty good after January 5th.  The Ridge has clearly retreated and the jet has undercut.  The monthly run, however, keeps the current pattern in place all the way towards March and looks awful.  I guess one can find whatever validation they are looking for at this range though.

 

I was looking at that and it's been trying to get to the more canonical nino look in the days 16+ range for a couple of weeks now and it keeps pushing it back.  But now that the GEFS/EPS agree by day 13+ we see the trough in the west get scurried out.  So maybe first 10 days of Jan we see a southern plains trough try and build.  All this doesn't mean anything unless the PV weakens and I am sure it's all tied together.

[nflwxman]

I was looking at that and it's been trying to get to the more canonical nino look in the days 16+ range for a couple of weeks now and it keeps pushing it back.  But now that the GEFS/EPS agree by day 13+ we see the trough in the west get scurried out.  So maybe first 10 days of Jan we see a southern plains trough try and build.  All this doesn't mean anything unless the PV weakens and I am sure it's all tied together.

Fair point, NCrain.  We keep get stuck in these patterns longer than the models anticipate. That's why it's really hard to throw out the CFSv2 monthly run, which to this point, has been fairly accurate.  Until we see something show up on the Euro ENS (which may not be until New Years), I will remain skeptical as I don't trust the CFSv2 very much from past experience.

 

As snowlover above does point out, the JMA and Euro weeklies don't look bad after the 1st week of January or so.  The JMA has been very accurate going through the progression of winters the last 5 years and has generally whipped the CFSv2.  Perhaps the Nino has overwhelmed all; but I for one, would be shocked to see the JMA be off by THIS much.

 

[Bob Chill]

Bob brought this up in the MA thread...the GEFS and now EPS both agree on a more zonal look by new years, sadly this is an improvement but a necessary step to hopefully a more January canonical nino look.  If it snaps back to the big west coast trough after new years then your going to see mass panic in the east...#canonicalplease

 

 

Edit: Was going to try and sugar coat the latest CFS run for Jan but nothing can be said to dress it up, LOL.

 

 

It's a grind man. Like a nasty drawn out bar alley fight when you're outnumbered 3-1. lol. You'll walk away a bloody mess but eventually heal and feel good again. 

 

Ian originally posted about this in our winter thread and I pointed it out again in the Dec thread. We're dealing with one heck of a stubborn height anomaly above us. Been there for months. And is even stronger right now.

 

 

 

We aren't going anywhere until that moves out and up. I do believe it will. It was there in Dec 82 for the most part. Jan 83 was definitely a solid transition month both with that height anomaly and also the AO. Had the AO not flipped in Jan but waited until Feb, the outcome of that winter in both of our regions would have been quite different.

 

First half of Jan showed the +height anomaly moving NE and but the big +AO/NAO hanging tough. At least there was a +PNA during the period. 

 

 

 

We could potentially be moving in that direction (slowly) as we close the month and move into Jan. Last nights eps showed higher heights poking into the pac NW and the west trough axis moving from the west coast to the intermountain west. Not a bad thing even though the EPS does noting with the godawful ridge above us. But it's different at least. Mid latitude stuff is much more variable than the HL stuff.

 

My guess is the PNA flips in some fashion in the next 3 weeks. It's not going to stay stormy out west for months on end. Just doesn't work like that. They will ridge out at some point. What that means for us remains to be seen. A +pna by itself is still a fluke pattern. Timing vs blocking...oh when will we ever see blocking again...lol

 

 

Second half of Jan 83 is when things got right. AO flipped + STJ. 

 

 

My worry is the AO this year takes too much time to get right (or worse...never gets right). Just gotta wait it out and hope we see meaningful change as more and more of early Jan is exposed on LR guidance. 

[NRVwxfan.]

Fair point, NCrain.  We keep get stuck in these patterns longer than the models anticipate. That's why it's really hard to throw out the CFSv2 monthly run, which to this point, has been fairly accurate.  Until we see something show up on the Euro ENS (which may not be until New Years), I will remain skeptical as I don't trust the CFSv2 very much from past experience.

So its safe to say winters done then? 

[packbacker]

So its safe to say winters done then? 

 

LOL...no!  I think we see Feb into March give a couple of chances for the SE.  Going to be a long next 4-5 weeks though.  I definitely don't buy a early or even mid-Jan wintery pattern for SE/E, I think some still hold out hope for that but now we are just quibbling over 2-3 week window.

[mackerel_sky]

So its safe to say winters done then?

Midooki is coming!

[nflwxman]

LOL...no!  I think we see Feb into March give a couple of chances for the SE.  Going to be a long next 4-5 weeks though.  I definitely don't buy a early or even mid-Jan wintery pattern for SE/E, I think some still hold out hope for that but now we are just quibbling over 2-3 week window.

 

Yeah, what's interesting about that 2 week window is that we may not even "score" during it.  We often don't during transition periods (the NE does).  But it would still be enough to see a more zonal look by new years to start.  Hell, a nice nino winter between Jan 20th-March 1st could be pretty nice with these ridiculous SST anomalies off the atlantic seaboard.  No reason to pull the plug at all. Most here would be relatively happy with a 82-83 redux.

[Brick Tamland]

So its safe to say winters done then? 

 

Doesn't it have to start first before it's done?

[packbacker]

It's a grind man. Like a nasty drawn out bar alley fight when you're outnumbered 3-1. lol. You'll walk away a bloody mess but eventually heal and feel good again. 

 

Ian originally posted about this in our winter thread and I pointed it out again in the Dec thread. We're dealing with one heck of a stubborn height anomaly above us. Been there for months. And is even stronger right now.

 

 

We aren't going anywhere until that moves out and up. I do believe it will. It was there in Dec 82 for the most part. Jan 83 was definitely a solid transition month both with that height anomaly and also the AO. Had the AO not flipped in Jan but waited until Feb, the outcome of that winter in both of our regions would have been quite different.

 

First half of Jan showed the +height anomaly moving NE and but the big +AO/NAO hanging tough. At least there was a +PNA during the period. 

 

 

We could potentially be moving in that direction (slowly) as we close the month and move into Jan. Last nights eps showed higher heights poking into the pac NW and the west trough axis moving from the west coast to the intermountain west. Not a bad thing even though the EPS does noting with the godawful ridge above us. But it's different at least. Mid latitude stuff is much more variable than the HL stuff.

 

My guess is the PNA flips in some fashion in the next 3 weeks. It's not going to stay stormy out west for months on end. Just doesn't work like that. They will ridge out at some point. What that means for us remains to be seen. A +pna by itself is still a fluke pattern. Timing vs blocking...oh when will we ever see blocking again...lol

 

 

Second half of Jan 83 is when things got right. AO flipped + STJ. 

 

 

My worry is the AO this year takes too much time to get right (or worse...never gets right). Just gotta wait it out and hope we see meaningful change as more and more of early Jan is exposed on LR guidance. 

 

Thanks Bob!  Yeah, the AO is just nuts right now, seems very formidable to see a change anytime soon, but agree that it will change end of Jan.

 

Edit:  I am also thinking we get into Jan and look back and laugh that this was all very normal and we should have been more patient...

 

I posted this in our banter thread but the warm winter months over the past several years has got to flip eventually, winter has turned into a one month deal now...look at the lack of BN winter months (DJF) since Jan 2011.  3 out of the past 14 winter months have been below normal, no wonder my avatar looks the way it looks.  Obviously the NAO plays a huge role in this, it's been negative one time in these 14 winter months (2/13).  The other 2 cold winter months had super -EPO.

 

 

BN:  2/13, 1/2014, 2/2015  (3 Total)

 

N-AN:  2/2011, 12/2011, 1/2012, 2/2012, 12/2012, 1/2013, 12/2013, 2/2014, 12/2014, 1/2015,  12/2015 (11 Total)

[griteater]

Yeah, what's interesting about that 2 week window is that we may not even "score" during it.  We often don't during transition periods (the NE does).  But it would still be enough to see a more zonal look by new years to start.  Hell, a nice nino winter between Jan 20th-March 1st could be pretty nice with these ridiculous SST anomalies off the atlantic seaboard.  No reason to pull the plug at all. Most here would be relatively happy with a 82-83 redux.

82-83 had a great southern stream once it got going later in January and it seems like a good compare in terms of the potential AO timing this winter.  There's something that just seems a little overpowering with this nino though, and the ++AO, and ++strat PV...so that's in the back of my head even though most ninos improve as we go along thru winter.

 

^ And nice post Bob