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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

Snowless in Carrollton

By Snowless in Carrollton,
in Southeastern States

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nflwxman

nflwxman

Posted
Posted

Its gonna get cold....its really rare to not see some cold even in "bad" winters...as usual the when is harder to say.... but I am sure there will 6-8 weeks of winter in the east...it seems to me that most of these longer range models tend to show whatever is occurring to keep occurring and don't really seem to see a real pattern change until at best 10-14 days out...

 

This has truth to it due to the initial conditions used can actually blunt or exaggerate a change.  This is why most forecasters are very weary using anything aside from skilled climate models at the upper levels for more than 15 days or so.  Right now, the CFSV2, JMA, Euro, and Canadian all point to a transition period in early-mid January.  Hard to argue against it until at least New Years, IMO.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

FWIW, the Euro weeklies look pretty good after January 3rd. Actually shows a nice PNA ridge out west and a trough in the east. It breaks it down but then tries to rebuild it. The main takeaway is after January 3-5 it shows a significantly different pattern from what we see now, with colder air here in the east. It also shows favorable trends in the major indices. AO heads neutral by early January and negative after the 5th. NAO also goes neutral and PNA goes neutral/positive by first week of January. EPO goes into negative territory after January 7th. The main takeaway is this; the Euro weeklies give credence to a pattern change in the first week of January occurring. All the indices head the direction we want them to go and the pattern is definitely much different than what we are seeing this December. Also shows a nice storm around January 12 which is when many high res ensemble members of the new Euro show us seeing a first snow chance.

To the bolded....it shows closer to "normal"......significant? No...Average....yes. A pattern change for us will not happen the first week of January and why on earth would you even mention what any model is showing a MONTH from now   :weenie:  

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The PV we've seen so far in December is impressive for December, not any other months really. I looked up the PV in all the Very Strong + Strong Ninos, the last 5 that I'm comparing are as follows:

 

86-87: Strong

87-88: Very Strong

97-98: Very Strong

02-03: Strong

09-10: Strong

 

I compared 10hPa temp anomalies, 60N zonal winds, and 45-75N heat flux at 30hPa...

 

For those worried the PV is too strong for a complete split, check out 1987-88. The second peak winds is 70+ m/s...this winter had TWO SSW events, one in Dec and March. It was also an Very Strong El Nino year w/ warm Dec.

 

 

Compare that with this year, peak winds reached 50+ m/s but are forecasted to decline drastically towards the MEAN...meaning, soon if this is correct, the PV will just be "normal" in strength, if I understand this correctly....making it more susceptible to warming.

 

 

 

The heat flux is also forecasted to increase corresponding with the drop in zonal wind.

 

 

With all that said, even if the PV strength continued to go off the charts like 1987-88, it still doesn't mean we can't have a SSW event split the PV much like it did in March of 1988.

Basically, one of the strongest PV's has already occured in a Strong to Very Strong El Nino year, and that was 1987-88. The PV of 2015-16, so far, ain't got nothing on it.

 

Just some encouraging words for people who think this PV is locked in for winter, it's not. (IMO)

 

87/88 is a little different with what we are dealing with now, as you said there was a SSWE in Dec and later in Jan/Feb.    Compare 10mb temps on 12/1 for both...

post-2311-0-90399400-1450211003_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-17532300-1450211014_thumb.pn

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

87/88 is a little different with what we are dealing with now, as you said there was a SSWE in Dec and later in Jan/Feb.    Compare 10mb temps on 12/1 for both...

Yeah it's drastically different from Dec right now. I wasn't comparing Dec PV or warming in both years, I was merely comparing the strength of the PV throughout the entire year, and the fact that 87-88 was a very strong el nino, and the SSWE still occurred and was successful at splitting the PV. Not really focusing on the months at all other than the average of warming events which was late Jan.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Yeah it's drastically different from Dec right now. I wasn't comparing Dec PV or warming in both years, I was merely comparing the strength of the PV throughout the entire year, and the fact that 87-88 was a very strong el nino, and the SSWE still occurred and was successful at splitting the PV. Not really focusing on the months at all other than the average of warming events which was late Jan.

 

w-QBO/solar are similar and it did recover and then had another SSWE that flipped the AO negative end of Jan for most of Feb.  I would take that.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Warm and wet doesn't mean there will be NO chance for snow.....THIS IS THE SOUTH....there's just as much of a chance in any given year, under any Nino or Nina or Neutral conditions, be it west based, east based or basin wide, as there is any other year. It just takes the perfect conditions for a few hours for the magic to happen. I seriously don't understand why weenies act like they do and go cliff diving two or three times a week the ENTIRE WINTER. I've been here in the Carolina's since 1987(almost 30 years!) and have experienced just a handfull of wintery precipitation events that occurred under various atmospheric conditions. It's the SOUTH....it takes PERFECT conditions for anything frozen to fall from the sky, we have no "wiggle room".....why???  We LIVE IN THE SOUTH. MBY went for a decade without seeing anything frozen during what should have been the "perfect conditions" some years...why?? IT'S THE SOUTH....smh.....Enjoy the weather....it's the only weather you've got   :P   :santa:  :snorkle:  :sun:  :maprain:

 

Your warm and wet call looks pretty good right now....though we need to work on the wet part.

 

While I agree with the overall tenor of your post, as you well know, the makeup of winter varies widely from say Boone to Charleston....and I do think there are ENSO tendencies that we can lean on a bit, even though maybe not strongly so.

 

Here are some alternate numbers for Charlotte per ENSO phase.  The lean toward Nino is stronger in the mtns.  Measurable snowfall event is 0.1 inches or greater.

 

Dec_15_Snow.png
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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Well then ...

 

I continue to expect this torchy pattern to last into mid-January then it will begin to transition to a much colder regime in a series of high-amplitude flip-flops that could involve stupendous lake effect snowfalls as the Great Lakes are going to remain well above their normal January temperatures.

 

Then with strong high pressure likely to dominate in eastern Canada and New England in February, there should be one or two opportunities for east coast snowstorms to develop. I am going to mention two higher than random windows of opportunity for these storms -- Feb 8 to 12 and Feb 21 to 25. If the mild pattern holds on longer than I'm expecting, those energy peaks will be shifted northwest into the Great Lakes and north-central plains regions and will give them the heavy snowstorms instead. But I figure that with all the anomalous warmth including that being experienced in Europe this month, Greenland will start to block at some point and it should favor the east coast in a possible Feb 2010 repeat (at least 50% strength anyway). Would then expect the wintry pattern to break down gradually in early March.

 

His original winter outlook call of warmth in the first half - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46928-ka-winter-outlook-2015-16-mine-also-others-please-post-here/?p=3729009

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

If this torch continues for another month, it will look like mid april around here. The damage to the trees and plants if your forecast is right could be devestating.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

If this torch continues for another month, it will look like mid april around here. The damage to the trees and plants if your forecast is right could be devestating.

The Mid Atlantic folks were trying to tell me the other day, as I was dabbling in their threads, that length of daylight was the most important factor in causing trees to put out growth!? I said it was air and soil temperature. Seeing as how buds are swelling and I've got new growth on my shrubs and it's about the shortest day of the year, chalk one up for Mack! Boo-Yah
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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

To the bolded....it shows closer to "normal"......significant? No...Average....yes. A pattern change for us will not happen the first week of January and why on earth would you even mention what any model is showing a MONTH from now :weenie:

I wouldn't call the large PNA ridges that the Euro weekly tries to build and the deep trough "normal." Furthermore the control of the Euro weekly shows two massive PNA spikes in the extended range and a tank of the EPO off the charts. This is a big change from what it has been showing previously, which was a warm east vs cold west. The Euro ensembles for the weeklies show good trends as well, which is the key. Sure long range modeling like this you don't focus on details but the trend, which is a big change from what we are seeing by early to mid January.

To claim my statements are that of a "weenie" does nothing to contribute positively to this thread, or discussion. This thread is for winter pattern discussion, which I directly addressed with the Euro weeklies. Many don't have access to this so I was providing a statement as to what they show and they indicated positive changes. Isn't that what this thread is about? I never said they were accurate or would verify. However they do agree with many other long range modeling and analog indications which all point to a change around January 10th.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Way way out in fantasy land but the 18z GFS shows some very cold air about to invade the US. Now would it make to the SE or is it even real. The one good thing is at least the model is showing cold air.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=18&fhour=372&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Way way out in fantasy land but the 18z GFS shows some very cold air about to invade the US. Now would it make to the SE or is it even real. The one good thing is at least the model is showing cold air.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=18&fhour=372&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

It'll make it, right down the west coast!
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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Way way out in fantasy land but the 18z GFS shows some very cold air about to invade the US. Now would it make to the SE or is it even real. The one good thing is at least the model is showing cold air.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=18&fhour=372&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Roll that baby forward one more frame; take a drink and go back to sleep -

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=12&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=18&fhour=384&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

FWIW --- from DFW's AFD today...

IT APPEARS THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED UP IN THE FARNORTHERN LATITUDES THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. LONG-RANGEOUTLOOKS PROJECT EXTRAORDINARILY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INAREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS SEASON.
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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Good trends in the GEFS teleconnections today...getting rid of the monster +AO/+NAO peaks (both from +5 or more to +3)...a lot easier to head negative by the new year the smaller that peak is.

 

6qmobLo.png

RiH7r70.png

I1z5mNF.png

9nhjQQc.png

 Jon,

 

Let's hope it's like walking from Woody Gap to Springer Mountain!

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
Question - and very serious -
 
Other than Alaska not being quite so cold on 12/31 as opposed to 12/25, and the SE not being quite so over the top on above temp anomalies between Christmas and New Year's, where is there any dynamic showing up to break this pattern? I'm quoting/re-posting Ryan since this is his info and credit is due for the source - his "lock" phrase is what I'm asking about (not challenging Ryan but just wondering what, if anything, short of a SSWE (which Jon has so astutely already discussed), would/could "unlock" this pattern)? Any other likely dynamics that might come in to play?
 
Discussion?
 

GEFS 18z ensembles for Christmas and New Year's Eve. Balmy along East coast as pattern is on lock

CWTnSEcW4AAMPnm.png
CWTnSEFWEAI9uH9.png
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