2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[NEchestercountydude]

Its true, Philly was shutout in the winter of 72-73

[griteater]

Here are the strong & moderate El Nino Decembers that were warm going back to the monster nino of 1877-1878

 

Based on prior posts, I would project that the AO will continue to be positive in January.  If that's the case, we get the following years from the warm Dec nino composite above.

[Jon]

Via Allan Huffman on Twitter "In order, 1998 was warmest 1st 14 days, then 2001, 1991, 1956, 2012, 2015."

So in the modern era, other than the moderate El Nino of 1991-92, no one has lived through an El Nino December as hot as this one will end up being when it's all said and done. This is uncharted territory all of those are either Neutral or Ninas, and 1991-92 was a below average winter (snowfall) for Raleigh. The silver lining is we're living through history and everyone will remember this year, no matter what happens...and there will be research papers published solely on studying this year. History is happening, might as well enjoy it. 

 

As for the -AO I think we can get there before Feb, we'll see.

[Jon]

Based on prior posts, I would project that the AO will continue to be positive in January.  If that's the case, we get the following years from the warm Dec nino composite above.

 

 

 

The composites don't look too great but 83 and 93 were actually above average years for snowfall @ RDU. 1992 not so much, but I'll take 2/3. Fab Feb for the win... Although the composite image for Feb doesn't look bad for precip, 1992 hurts the temps. Don't want that year in my composites for this winter, Raleigh got 0". 

[buckeyefan1]

Man, it's getting bad! Robert even seems gloomy and doomy about the pattern! I posted on his Facebook page that we might not see any snow the whole winter, and he called me a troll and blocked me from posting on his page! Y'all check out his latest post or two, it's not encouraging!

Ummm......you are a troll.....this shouldn't come as a surprise  

 

I am going to create another winter pattern thread that prefaces that it might talk about warm weather or 35F rain or cold/dry...

Nobody likes my talk of warm and wet either       It's because I'm a girl isn't it   

 

Thanks for the thoughts foothills.. FB can be a bear to handle sometimes.

Sent from my iPad

I second this     

 

Warm and wet doesn't mean there will be NO chance for snow.....THIS IS THE SOUTH....there's just as much of a chance in any given year, under any Nino or Nina or Neutral conditions, be it west based, east based or basin wide, as there is any other year. It just takes the perfect conditions for a few hours for the magic to happen. I seriously don't understand why weenies act like they do and go cliff diving two or three times a week the ENTIRE WINTER. I've been here in the Carolina's since 1987(almost 30 years!) and have experienced just a handfull of wintery precipitation events that occurred under various atmospheric conditions. It's the SOUTH....it takes PERFECT conditions for anything frozen to fall from the sky, we have no "wiggle room".....why???  We LIVE IN THE SOUTH. MBY went for a decade without seeing anything frozen during what should have been the "perfect conditions" some years...why?? IT'S THE SOUTH....smh.....Enjoy the weather....it's the only weather you've got          

[packbacker]

Via Allan Huffman on Twitter "In order, 1998 was warmest 1st 14 days, then 2001, 1991, 1956, 2012, 2015."

So in the modern era, other than the moderate El Nino of 1991-92, no one has lived through an El Nino December as hot as this one will end up being when it's all said and done. This is uncharted territory all of those are either Neutral or Ninas, and 1991-92 was a below average winter (snowfall) for Raleigh. The silver lining is we're living through history and everyone will remember this year, no matter what happens...and there will be research papers published solely on studying this year. History is happening, might as well enjoy it. 

 

As for the -AO I think we can get there before Feb, we'll see.

 

Agree on the -AO...this heat is impressive, I got killed yesterday for talking about the heat but this is impressive.  And yes, it will flip in Feb and we will see snow before anyone freaks out.

 

80+F on Xmas if we are dry.

[FallsLake]

Looking at the indices, it really can't get any worse for the time around Christmas:

 

NAO - +2 with tight member agreement. **LR maybe heads towards neutral

AO - +4-5 with tight member agreement. **LR mayber heads towards neutral

PNA - (-1to 2) with tight member agreement. **LR maybe heads towards neutral.

 

Even as they all head towards neutral you could see the members start the bad turn right at the end (except maybe the PNA)

[Cold Rain]

This SAI business absolutely sucks.

[franklin NCwx]

This SAI business absolutely sucks.

time to short that stock.

[Cold Rain]

time to short that stock.

Yeah what a pig. I'm going the opposite next year for sure.

[packbacker]

Yeah what a pig. I'm going the opposite next year for sure.

 

It will be interesting to see if we see a -AO in Feb, it would be quite the feat if the w-QBO/solar combo wins out again.  The super nino and SAI should be enough to get some blocking in Feb, you would think.  

[griteater]

Looking at the indices, it really can't get any worse for the time around Christmas:

You're going to be hard pressed to find a worse forecast look than this (from the superensemble which is the avg of the last 4 GFS ensemble runs).  It's a teleconnection nightmare, everywhere.  Regardless of the AO/NAO, the first order of business has to be to get that trough out of western N America (ridge N of Hawaii is feeding the monster).

 

[griteater]

^ Heck, that map is a teleconnection nightmare even in Asia where you'd like to see high pressure in northern / NW Asia to promote wave driving into the strat PV

[snowlover91]

From one forecaster I follow:

"the cold West vs warm East split will continue through two more storms: one December 29-31 and another January 5-7. It is that last disturbance in the series which might 'turn the page' to a colder transition east of the Rocky Mountains."

[packbacker]

^ Heck, that map is a teleconnection nightmare even in Asia where you'd like to see high pressure in northern / NW Asia to promote wave driving into the strat PV

 

Ensembles show that changing in 10 days but yeah, that's not good for trying to speed up a change to mid-Jan.

[packbacker]

The warming being shown on models is like a ant on the back of an elephant...

 

I am hoping/thinking by early Jan this will look a lot different...if not, well.....

[Stormcatt]

The warming being shown on models is like a ant on the back of an elephant...

I am hoping/thinking by early Jan this will look a lot different...if not, well.....

Yeah the warming is a joke. It's better than nothing but it's nothing that's gonna shake up the pattern

[Jon]

The warming being shown on models is like a ant on the back of an elephant...

 

I am hoping/thinking by early Jan this will look a lot different...if not, well.....

Warming that's suppose to occur in January won't show up in December 24th modeling, right?

[packbacker]

Warming that's suppose to occur in January won't show up in December 24th modeling, right?

 

Dec 24th?  Yeah, I would think models can see 7-10 days out, so hoping by Xmas we see some better warming for early Jan. 

[Jon]

Dec 24th?  Yeah, I would think models can see 7-10 days out, so hoping by Xmas we see some better warming for early Jan. 

I was more talking along the lines of if the SSW event occurs say on Jan 20th, we'll just see pesky ants on the back of an elephant until the model gets in range, so Jan 10th-ish.

[Stormcatt]

HM says the AO will peak during the first ten days of January

[snowlover91]

FWIW, the Euro weeklies look pretty good after January 3rd. Actually shows a nice PNA ridge out west and a trough in the east. It breaks it down but then tries to rebuild it. The main takeaway is after January 3-5 it shows a significantly different pattern from what we see now, with colder air here in the east. It also shows favorable trends in the major indices. AO heads neutral by early January and negative after the 5th. NAO also goes neutral and PNA goes neutral/positive by first week of January. EPO goes into negative territory after January 7th. The main takeaway is this; the Euro weeklies give credence to a pattern change in the first week of January occurring. All the indices head the direction we want them to go and the pattern is definitely much different than what we are seeing this December. Also shows a nice storm around January 12 which is when many high res ensemble members of the new Euro show us seeing a first snow chance.

[Stormcatt]

FWIW, the Euro weeklies look pretty good after January 3rd. Actually shows a nice PNA ridge out west and a trough in the east. It breaks it down but then tries to rebuild it. The main takeaway is after January 3-5 it shows a significantly different pattern from what we see now, with colder air here in the east. It also shows favorable trends in the major indices. AO heads neutral by early January and negative after the 5th. NAO also goes neutral and PNA goes neutral/positive by first week of January. EPO goes into negative territory after January 7th. The main takeaway is this; the Euro weeklies give credence to a pattern change in the first week of January occurring. All the indices head the direction we want them to go and the pattern is definitely much different than what we are seeing this December. Also shows a nice storm around January 12 which is when many high res ensemble members of the new Euro show us seeing a first snow chance.

The weeklies have a positive AO all four weeks . Gets close to neutral but that's about it

[snowlover91]

The weeklies has a positive AO all four weeks . Gets close to neutral but that's about it

The average on the AO is positive but the control went negative. It's heading down to only +1 by January which is a good sign and the control goes negative, another good sign. All signs point to pattern change first week of January, it is coming.

[Stormcatt]

The average on the AO is positive but the control went negative. It's heading down to only +1 by January which is a good sign and the control goes negative, another good sign. All signs point to pattern change first week of January, it is coming.

We might flirt we neutral or even negative from time to time but there is nothing that points to a sustained -AO . Even with the elongated PV and slight warming all ensembles still show the PV on roids . I guess getting towards neutral is better than nothing

[snowlover91]

We might flirt we neutral or even negative from time to time but there is nothing that points to a sustained -AO . Even with the elongated PV and slight warming all ensembles still show the PV on roids . I guess getting towards neutral is better than nothing

Yep it's a good step and better than seeing it stay super positive. Also since it's an ensemble mean you won't see as drastic of a drop in these indices as what I think we will actually see, especially this far out. Models like GFS and euro should start picking up on this after Christmas, probably the 28-30th timeframe after a big storm passes and they pick up on the one (January 5-7th) that will drive the pattern change. If we could take the D20 or D30 image from the Euro control and have that all January and February we would be in business, massive PNA ridge and a nice change to see.

[Stormcatt]

Yep it's a good step and better than seeing it stay super positive. Also since it's an ensemble mean you won't see as drastic of a drop in these indices as what I think we will actually see, especially this far out. Models like GFS and euro should start picking up on this after Christmas, probably the 28-30th timeframe after a big storm passes and they pick up on the one (January 5-7th) that will drive the pattern change. If we could take the D20 or D30 image from the Euro control and have that all January and February we would be in business, massive PNA ridge and a nice change to see.

Hell I forgot what a positive PNA look like lol . Hopefully we get there sooner rather than later

[LithiaWx]

The average on the AO is positive but the control went negative. It's heading down to only +1 by January which is a good sign and the control goes negative, another good sign. All signs point to pattern change first week of January, it is coming.

Yeah a change from as bad as it gets to still not very good. Any hope of a great pattern is beyond the first week in January, if it happens at all.

[Jon]

The PV we've seen so far in December is impressive for December, not any other months really. I looked up the PV in all the Very Strong + Strong Ninos, the last 5 that I'm comparing are as follows:

 

86-87: Strong
87-88: Very Strong
97-98: Very Strong
02-03: Strong
09-10: Strong

 

I compared 10hPa temp anomalies, 60N zonal winds, and 45-75N heat flux at 30hPa...

 

For those worried the PV is too strong for a complete split, check out 1987-88. The second peak winds is 70+ m/s...this winter had TWO SSW events, one in Dec and March. It was also an Very Strong El Nino year w/ warm Dec.

 

Compare that with this year, peak winds reached 50+ m/s but are forecasted to decline drastically towards the MEAN...meaning, soon if this is correct, the PV will just be "normal" in strength, if I understand this correctly....making it more susceptible to warming.

 

 

The heat flux is also forecasted to increase corresponding with the drop in zonal wind.

 

With all that said, even if the PV strength continued to go off the charts like 1987-88, it still doesn't mean we can't have a SSW event split the PV much like it did in March of 1988.

Basically, one of the strongest PV's has already occured in a Strong to Very Strong El Nino year, and that was 1987-88. The PV of 2015-16, so far, ain't got nothing on it.

 

Just some encouraging words for people who think this PV is locked in for winter, it's not. (IMO)

[downeastnc]

Its gonna get cold....its really rare to not see some cold even in "bad" winters...as usual the when is harder to say.... but I am sure there will 6-8 weeks of winter in the east...it seems to me that most of these longer range models tend to show whatever is occurring to keep occurring and don't really seem to see a real pattern change until at best 10-14 days out...