2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[JoMo]

So did everyone on there brother but did he expect a persistent aletuian ridge with west coast trough with record cold PV?

Nobody is going to win this discussion until Jan gets going. Weeklies say we torch through mid Jan but still not a canonical Nino look.

 

But... -EPO! It just dumps all the cold in the -PNA (west) 

[packbacker]

But... -EPO! It just dumps all the cold in the -PNA (west)

That would be funny, we have a super Nino with a stable aletuian ridge that migrates to a -EPO but with cold buried in the west. I hope that happens it would be funny. #weeklies

I can see JB hitting the bottle right about now.

[packbacker]

Cohen says keep hope alive...he's a good follow on twitter.

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

The polar vortex model also predicts a similar perturbing of the stratospheric polar vortex in the first week of January and again an even bigger event the second week of January.  In addition, the predicted temperature pattern of cold Siberia and warm western Eurasia is favorable for increased WAFz.  Therefore, based on the polar vortex model and the upcoming atmospheric circulation pattern, we are anticipating more upward pulses of WAFz. If our expectations of more upward pulses of WAFz is correct, this should be sufficient to force a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in January

[Cold Rain]

Continuing...

...With effects felt generally 30-45 days later, our expectations are for the Arctic oscillation to turn negative in early to mid March.

[mackerel_sky]

Continuing...

...With effects felt generally 30-45 days later, our expectations are for the Arctic oscillation to turn negative in early to mid March.

The record breaking snowcover currently over Eurasia , will keep snow chances going well into April , even in the SE!

Feliz Navidad!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

That would be funny, we have a super Nino with a stable aletuian ridge that migrates to a -EPO but with cold buried in the west. I hope that happens it would be funny. #weeklies

I can see JB hitting the bottle right about now.

    You crack me up.... Some of your post are really quite hilarious. I have lived here 50 years and have never been shut-out in the snow department. I know, I will get mine come January / Feb. It always happens. I remember one January back in the early 70's (can't remember which year) our neighbors were actually in their back yards sunbathing in bikinis. We had a foot of snow on the ground the following week. So, this Dec being warm is nothing new and is not concerning to me in the least. The only thing that troubles me is the lack of snow for our ski industry. There are jobs at stake and livelihoods could be compromised. Best thing to do is look for the positive and don't post so much negativity. It's warm right now.....we get it.  

[NRVwxfan.]

So did everyone on there brother but did he expect a persistent aletuian ridge with west coast trough with record cold PV?

Nobody is going to win this discussion until Jan gets going. Weeklies say we torch through mid Jan but still not a canonical Nino look.

My money is with the professional mets. 

[packbacker]

My money is with the professional mets. 

 

Me too    What's funny is we are all roughly saying the same thing, wait till Feb, when I say that it comes off as I am cancelling winter, when they say it comes off winter is on.   All in the delivery...

 

As a reminder on how I think it unfolds...I am hugging the wQBO/solar/nino analogs, they make the most sense right now.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47339-2015-16-winter-pattern-discussion/page-18#entry3794697

[NRVwxfan.]

    You crack me up.... Some of your post are really quite hilarious. I have lived here 50 years and have never been shut-out in the snow department. I know, I will get mine come January / Feb. It always happens. I remember one January back in the early 70's (can't remember which year) our neighbors were actually in their back yards sunbathing in bikinis. We had a foot of snow on the ground the following week. So, this Dec being warm is nothing new and is not concerning to me in the least. The only thing that troubles me is the lack of snow for our ski industry. There are jobs at stake and livelihoods could be compromised. Best thing to do is look for the positive and don't post so much negativity. It's warm right now.....we get it.  

Hilarious seeing weenies on the edge of the cliff.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

    You crack me up.... Some of your post are really quite hilarious. I have lived here 50 years and have never been shut-out in the snow department. I know, I will get mine come January / Feb. It always happens. I remember one January back in the early 70's (can't remember which year) our neighbors were actually in their back yards sunbathing in bikinis. We had a foot of snow on the ground the following week. So, this Dec being warm is nothing new and is not concerning to me in the least. The only thing that troubles me is the lack of snow for our ski industry. There are jobs at stake and livelihoods could be compromised. Best thing to do is look for the positive and don't post so much negativity. It's warm right now.....we get it.  

 That surprises me. Even Philly has been shutout before. I believe it was 72-73 and I'm pretty sure they get more snow than your area. Are you at a very high elevation ?

[packbacker]

You crack me up.... Some of your post are really quite hilarious. I have lived here 50 years and have never been shut-out in the snow department. I know, I will get mine come January / Feb. It always happens. I remember one January back in the early 70's (can't remember which year) our neighbors were actually in their back yards sunbathing in bikinis. We had a foot of snow on the ground the following week. So, this Dec being warm is nothing new and is not concerning to me in the least. The only thing that troubles me is the lack of snow for our ski industry. There are jobs at stake and livelihoods could be compromised. Best thing to do is look for the positive and don't post so much negativity. It's warm right now.....we get it.

HUH, this is a winter pattern thread, what are we supposed to talk about in this thread? Socioeconomic effects of the warm weather, yeah, that's a real uplifting message. If you don't want to discuss the relevant winter weather then don't read the winter pattern thread. If it shows cold/snowy then that's what will be discussed I would suppose.

[mackerel_sky]

HUH, this is a winter pattern thread, what are we supposed to talk about in this thread? Socioeconomic effects of the warm weather, yeah, that's a real uplifting message. If you don't want to discuss the relevant winter weather then don't read the winter pattern thread. If it shows cold/snowy then that's what will be discussed I would suppose.

Let's talk severe! It's warm enough! Just waiting on my thunderstorms for Xmas!

[NCSNOW]

But... -EPO! It just dumps all the cold in the -PNA (west)

Since no one at NASA, the NWS or Whitehouse will do it, allow me to toot my own horn. I've said it many times back in the fall that if there is a signal to track and get on our side it was the pna, this year espeacilly. If it can't lock in posotive our goose would be cooked. We have to get a ridge to build with staying power in the ne pac. No other way to win out. Those warm sst basin wide in the pac are a beast to reckon with.

[FranknRaleigh]

I'm certainly not a professional met and I seldom post, but I pay attention to mets daily and the valid discussions on these boards. As a professional economist/mathematician I'll admit I am watching closely for the first solid indications of a SSW and concurrent pacific changes/PV split.  The natural gas markets and heating oil futures markets are currently imploding all due to the absence of eastern US cold weather. I expected a very warm December and I expect to see a substantial shift of cold to the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS by +/-January 10th.  As soon as the aforementioned changes are being forecasted and show progression, I'm buying natural gas and heating oil futures. Yes, there is still a risk, but one I believe to be diminishing daily.  I'm expecting to put money on the POTENTIAL of real winter weather during January-March. If the potential comes to fruition, lots of money will be made by those investing in these two energy sources.

 

btw.......As an economist, I feel for you mets who post on these boards.  Just like me, you're always being commanded to gaze into that crystal ball called "the future" and spit out guaranteed prophesies.

[packbacker]

Let's talk severe! It's warm enough! Just waiting on my thunderstorms for Xmas!

I am going to create another winter pattern thread that prefaces that it might talk about warm weather or 35F rain or cold/dry...

[franklin NCwx]

HUH, this is a winter pattern thread, what are we supposed to talk about in this thread? Socioeconomic effects of the warm weather, yeah, that's a real uplifting message. If you don't want to discuss the relevant winter weather then don't read the winter pattern thread. If it shows cold/snowy then that's what will be discussed I would suppose.

we could discuss fantasy football, goes right along with our fantasy storms.

[packbacker]

I'm certainly not a professional met and I seldom post, but I pay attention to mets daily and the valid discussions on these boards. As a professional economist/mathematician I'll admit I am watching closely for the first solid indications of a SSW and concurrent pacific changes/PV split.  The natural gas markets and heating oil futures markets are currently imploding all due to the absence of eastern US cold weather. I expected a very warm December and I expect to see a substantial shift of cold to the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS by +/-January 10th.  As soon as the aforementioned changes are being forecasted and show progression, I'm buying natural gas and heating oil futures. Yes, there is still a risk, but one I believe to be diminishing daily.  I'm expecting to put money on the POTENTIAL of real winter weather during January-March. If the potential comes to fruition, lots of money will be made by those investing in these two energy sources.

 

btw.......As an economist, I feel for you mets who post on these boards.  Just like me, you're always being commanded to gaze into that crystal ball called "the future" and spit out guaranteed prophesies.

That is very interesting, I was reading about NG futures today...good luck I hope your right!

[griteater]

DonS had a good post last week.  In a nutshell, based on how the AO has progressed, and how it is forecasted to progress in the 2nd half of Dec (per CR's comic chart), the AO is likely to remain positive through Jan, but then likely to be negative in Feb.  Of course, the AO isn't everything.  Can get shutout with it negative, and get a storm with it positive.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3786729

HM posted this chart regarding the evolution of the AO during +MEI (essentially, El Nino), +QBO (W QBO) vs. -QBO (E QBO) winters.  I'd say a good call for the evolution of the AO this winter is the  W QBO line (red line) in that chart based on W QBO/El Nino climo, and the info in the AO post above from DonS.

 

I am going to create another winter pattern thread that prefaces that it might talk about warm weather or 35F rain or cold/dry...

lol Pack last year you said you were going to have to create a thread for discussion of puppies and rainbows...ha ha

 

 

^ A Foothills sighting, nice!

[snowlover91]

I expected a warm DEC. I did NOT, nor did any model or human that I know of thought it would be be this warm for DEC. I have always said JFM is MUCH better for snow/ice chances vs DEC.

One person I follow actually did a good job forecasting the warm anomalies with an area of >6F anomalies near Canada. Still underdone but better than everyone else I've read for December.

[superjames1992]

That surprises me. Even Philly has been shutout before. I believe it was 72-73 and I'm pretty sure they get more snow than your area. Are you at a very high elevation ?

You sure about Philly being shut out? That seems hard to believe. MBY hasn't been shut out in my lifetime, at least.

[Amos83]

holy hell, Foothills makes an appearance.... it must be Christmas time!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

You sure about Philly being shut out? That seems hard to believe. MBY hasn't been shut out in my lifetime, at least.

You have had a short lifetime though. 

[mackerel_sky]

You sure about Philly being shut out? That seems hard to believe. MBY hasn't been shut out in my lifetime, at least.

Philly , GA

[packbacker]

HM posted this chart regarding the evolution of the AO during +MEI (essentially, El Nino), +QBO (W QBO) vs. -QBO (E QBO) winters. I'd say a good call for the evolution of the AO this winter is the W QBO line (red line) in that chart based on W QBO/El Nino climo, and the info in the AO post above from DonS.

lol Pack last year you said you were going to have to create a thread for discussion of puppies and rainbows...ha ha

^ A Foothills sighting, nice!

Was just reading your Twitter exchange...the magnitude for w-QBO Feb AO's is impressive and lasts into March.

Also to you rainbows/sunshine comment :-). I posted in the banter thread that only 3 out of the past 14 winter months were BN, that will flip soon and everyone will be sick of me posting about how cold/snowy it is. It has to flip....eventually...doesn't it.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

 That surprises me. Even Philly has been shutout before. I believe it was 72-73 and I'm pretty sure they get more snow than your area. Are you at a very high elevation ?

 

Philly is not in the CAD region. We here in "cad central" always get the effects of cold air damming several times a winter. This usually means a front end thump of snow followed by ice.

[KChuck]

taken from here:

As reported, Buffalo has set a record for the longest wait for measurable snow at the National Weather Service’s official measuring station.

And based on what the computer models are spitting out, that record is going to become tougher and tougher to match, even if the planet gets warmer.

It’s not just Buffalo that is snow deprived. Syracuse, which actually is significantly snowier than Buffalo on average, has measured only 0.8 inches so far. By now, it usually has had over a foot.

The lake-effect snows just haven’t been happening as the cold fronts that howl out of north country that typically lift moisture out of the Great Lakes just haven’t been happening.

As for the north country itself, we were in beautiful Mont-Tremblant, Quebec, last week and those folks still were waiting for their first official centimeter.

 

This site supposedly lists the Philadelphia snow amounts by year up to the current date and yearly totals. It does list that the year 1972-73 received no snow. However, if you look at the Weather Underground daily weather reports by month for the months December thru February for those two years you will see that snow was reported at least once for those months for both years.

[superjames1992]

You have had a short lifetime though. 

23 years is a long time to not get shutout, though.

[snowlover91]

Not sure if anyone is watching the GFS but looks like some major changes through 240, not quite as warm leading up to Christmas and more cold air behind that system.

[FallsLake]

Not sure if anyone is watching the GFS but looks like some major changes through 240, not quite as warm leading up to Christmas and more cold air behind that system.

6z would have a cool frontal passage on Christmas day, but Christmas Eve would be warm and possibly rainy. After that the pattern really does not improve. Maybe out towards day 16 there would be more cold air to our NW but the overal pattern would probably still make this a quick cold shot, if even that.

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for the thoughts foothills.. FB can be a bear to handle sometimes.

The warmth was expected in December. I didn't do a monthly breakdown though. As for blocking you, if you mean on FB, I have to do that at times, and if I did, it's because you must have really said something way out of line. I don't have as much patience now esp. on the aspects of weather on FB lately Between taking care of details at my little site, my sister's care (cancer in remission twice) my elderly parents and much more, I don't have the time and my patience runs thin sometimes and I cant juggle every single post I make, or monitor who's doing what. I give plenty of chances to be a decent person without getting ugly so I don't know what you said. If I did so in error, let me know. As for Winter overall, its much different than our usual setup. I actually like the ridge pulling north on the CFS and the new JMA , seasonal models. I have been writing about this evolution a lot the last 2 months on my site, and I have to be more brief on the FB side and less detailed. Who knows though, maybe the Winter won't be a big deal after all is said and done, except for the Warmth. I still lean heavily on my reasoning for the Winter overall from TX to Carolinas to MidAtlantic, esp. the Apps region being ground zero when all is said and done, especially in view of a Nino following a strong droughty summer. The evolution seems to be happening but is very slow. If we get to early or mid January and things look about the same for the (then) next two weeks, obviously that will mean a much shorter window, and my Winter forecast could easily bust. But as it stands now, I am still pretty confident on all I mentioned synoptically . That being just barely cold enough air down south a few times, with extensive surface high ridging froma long distance, such that some areas are snow, barely, in a very, very, very, very active southern stream. The fact that troughing shows up in the means on most seasonal models in the South, from TX to Carolinas , is very telling,even though not that cold overall. Who knows if that's how it happens. The Southeast ridge may indeed dominate, time and time again. In that case, its warm and wet. There's more than usual number of subtle things going on between Mid Jan and Mid March that can make or break somewhere in the Southeast, really from one end of the extreme, to the other. More so than usual . Theres a lot more detail in put in my update recently, that I think will be about what happens. Its a very strange 5H setup in the means.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk