No snow for you Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 JB hugs the cfs every year! I'll stand by my word! 12 inches total, right? I still owe someone on this board dinner from Tiger woods making the cut at the masters last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Well, has been mentioned, the NAO forecast isn't generating any excitement: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml BTW, I did some quick climate data comparisons from KGSP: So far in Dec. 2015 our average daily temp is 51.8 The only Decembers with warmer daily averages were 1956, 2007, 1931 2013 average daily temp was 46.9 2014 average daily temp was 46.9 1989, the Holy Grail of SE Decembers, was 36.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It is encouraging to see the CFS turn around. If that trend continues, then that's definitely a good sign and a reason to be optimistic.cfs and optimistic should not be used in the same sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This is GOLD right now...LOL y'all have been talking about the CFSv2 and its been showing wall to wall warm, but now the latest runs are flipping to a more normal to potentially below normal pattern by the beginning of JAN or so. Its following the JMA, CMC and the EURO (along with WXB model and JB) Below is week 2, 3 and 4 precip and days 11-15, 16-20 and 21-25 at 500mb. Notice the mean ridge starting to build NW....and the jet really undercutting into the southern plains and nosing into the SE. That is the start of the true winter pattern IMHO....that will mean the nino can drive the pattern....The nino is NOT driving it right now imho. Thanks for this post Chris, long way to go with winter and it doesn't start normally for us (south of DC) this time of year anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 cfs and optimistic should not be used in the same sentence. When it showed a torch for December people said it was wrong.. And now it shows a favorable January pattern and people say it's wrong again? It does have some value and the key is the trend has been better, not worse. As have many seasonal models recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 cfs and optimistic should not be used in the same sentence. Haha normally, I would agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 When it showed a torch for December people said it was wrong.. And now it shows a favorable January pattern and people say it's wrong again? It does have some value and the key is the trend has been better, not worse. As have many seasonal models recently.lol... I'm not going after what it shows I have never been a big fan of that model. I hope it's righr, that would be a great pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 12 inches total, right? I still owe someone on this board dinner from Tiger woods making the cut at the masters last year. 14"! Somehow, I read our avg is 7", and I'm rolling with the 200% of normal forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 One other note that might interest some....86/87 has been the popular analog of choice for those who still believe in such things. Dec 86 daily average temp was 49.6 This means Dec 86 was a relatively mild month before the epic Jan and Feb. Keep in mind that the 51.8 we've seen so far this month is only through the 13th. With a period of below average temps this weekend coming before a Christmas week warm-up, and a another cool down the last week of the month, we could get closer to the Dec 86 daily average. This is not completely scientific since I only reviewed temps and I am not ready to go out on a limb to say we will have a 87 Jan/Feb. However, for those waving the white flag, Dec 86 was above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The sub-weekly CFSv2 runs have been showing cold dumps in January for a while now, nothing new there. So if you're excited about seeing those maps now you should have been excited for a while...haha. However, Jan CFSv2 ens continues to look awesome. It will look even better once the below normal probabilities move up the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Triple Dog dare ya! https://www.telluride.com/webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just booked a flight to Flagstaff for Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The sub-weekly CFSv2 runs have been showing cold dumps in January for a while now, nothing new there. So if you're excited about seeing those maps now you should have been excited for a while...haha. However, Jan CFSv2 ens continues to look awesome. It will look even better once the below normal probabilities move up the SE. TY for posting these. I never really liked the CFSv2...It usually sucked! BUT....its has been doing the best job at this hellacious Dec pattern, so it does carry something...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Man, it's getting bad! Robert even seems gloomy and doomy about the pattern! I posted on his Facebook page that we might not see any snow the whole winter, and he called me a troll and blocked me from posting on his page! Y'all check out his latest post or two, it's not encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Man, it's getting bad! Robert even seems gloomy and doomy about the pattern! I posted on his Facebook page that we might not see any snow the whole winter, and he called me a troll and blocked me from posting on his page! Y'all check out his latest post or two, it's not encouraging! LOL...I doubt GSP to RDU get's completely shut out this winter but it's not going to be easy to get some flakes. Anyone that is saying this winter is going as planned is reaching. Yes, maybe everyone expected a warm December but nobody expected the pattern to develop like this and nobody expected the PV to be what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 LOL...I doubt GSP to RDU get's completely shut out this winter but it's not going to be easy to get some flakes. Anyone that is saying this winter is going as planned is reaching. Yes, maybe everyone expected a warm December but nobody expected the pattern to develop like this and nobody expected the PV to be what it is. Of course it's not easy to get flakes when your are south of 40N, but acting like we know if this enitre season will be easier/harder than average is quite deceptive in an El Nino year with little analog support. It's not even past the solstice yet and stratospheric forecasts are fickle at best. The AO, while troubling, is not something can't change in a relative hurry as the nino collapses. Right now the vast majority we have to go by are dynamical models like the CFSV2, Canadian, UKMET, and JMA. None of those models show a blowtorch for the SE. All of those models show higher than average precipitation. This is not a La Nina. Sweeping statements about the winter as a whole are premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 LOL...I doubt GSP to RDU get's completely shut out this winter but it's not going to be easy to get some flakes. Anyone that is saying this winter is going as planned is reaching. Yes, maybe everyone expected a warm December but nobody expected the pattern to develop like this and nobody expected the PV to be what it is. Statements like this are silly.....Yes, its warm, but honestly who the hell cares at this point. This is the SOUTHEAST bro...it gets warm in the winter. We have 2.5 months of solid chances and the pattern will not stay like this. Again, the Nino is not driving the pattern right now, but all signs are its about to get rolling quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Of course it's not easy to get flakes when your are south of 40N, but acting like we know if this enitre season will be easier/harder than average is quite deceptive in an El Nino year with little analog support. It's not even past the solstice yet and stratospheric forecasts are fickle at best. The AO, while troubling, is not something can't change in a relative hurry as the nino collapses. Right now the vast majority we have to go by are dynamical models like the CFSV2, Canadian, UKMET, and JMA. None of those models show a blowtorch for the SE. All of those models show higher than average precipitation. Sweeping statements about the winter as a whole are premature. Thank you for this post....I don't understand what people want that live in the SE...or should say expect...LMAO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Of course it's not easy to get flakes when your are south of 40N, but acting like we know if this enitre season will be easier/harder than average is quite deceptive in an El Nino year with little analog support. It's not even past the solstice yet and stratospheric forecasts are fickle at best. The AO, while troubling, is not something can't change in a relative hurry. Right now the vast majority we have to go by are dynamical models like the CFSV2, UKMET, and JMA. None of those models show a blowtorch for the SE. All of those models show higher than average precipitation. Definitely agree.... it's going to be a painful wait until end of Jan into Feb. Post 1950 the only mod+ nino we have been completely shut out is 92 and in 98 we had 2.5"....Pre-1950 you have 41 (2") and 1903 (0"). So out of the 30 mod+ nino's we have been skunked twice, this definitely could be the third. The seasonal avg is very high for RDU, that's why it's going to suck big time if underperform this winter, but you get what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Statements like this are silly.....Yes, its warm, but honestly who the hell cares at this point. This is the SOUTHEAST bro...it gets warm in the winter. We have 2.5 months of solid chances and the pattern will not stay like this. Again, the Nino is not driving the pattern right now, but all signs are its about to get rolling quickly. What's silly about it? Is this what you expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Definitely agree.... it's going to be a painful wait until end of Jan into Feb. Post 1950 the only mod+ nino we have been completely shut out is 92 and in 98 we had 2.5"....Pre-1950 you have 41 (2") and 1903 (0"). So out of the 30 mod+ nino's we have been skunked twice, this definitely could be the third. The seasonal avg is very high for RDU, that's why it's going to suck big time if underperform this winter, but you get what you get. It could be, but none of the climate guidance suggest that's likely, IMO. Especially for RDU, at least. Keep in mind, the CFSV2 has been trending towards a better 500mb pattern the last week in the midst of this torch. Initial conditions are very important to these types of models, so I would take that as generally a favorable sign. While February is absolutely the favored month for Nino climo, there is no reason to write off anything after January 5th at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Thank you for this post....I don't understand what people want that live in the SE...or should say expect...LMAO....My seasonal AVG is 7"! I know I don't live in AK, but we didnt get that avg. by having lots of 70s during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 My seasonal AVG is 7"! I know I don't live in AK, but we didnt get that avg. by having lots of 70s during the winter months. amazing that you average more snow than Nashville ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 amazing that you average more snow than Nashville ! Thank you to the mountains and the CAD for that. As for this winter. Our money months are always late January and February. Sure this December is bad, but enjoy the nice weather and look forward to Jammin January. The change is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What's silly about it? Is this what you expected? He expected a warm December.Its people that are cancelling winter in Mid December that he is saying is silly. He is a professional meteorologist afterall. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 He expected a warm December.Its people that are cancelling winter in Mid December that he is saying is silly. He is a professional meteorologist afterall. SMH.So did everyone on there brother but did he expect a persistent aletuian ridge with west coast trough with record cold PV?Nobody is going to win this discussion until Jan gets going. Weeklies say we torch through mid Jan but still not a canonical Nino look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What's silly about it? Is this what you expected? I expected a warm DEC. I did NOT, nor did any model or human that I know of thought it would be be this warm for DEC. I have always said JFM is MUCH better for snow/ice chances vs DEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Nino HAS to jump start the pattern imo...We need some strat help as well. This is why seasonal forecasts are silly most of the time. I do them because I think they are fun...and the station wants me to do them. I am NOT fond of them....at all. I still think we are well on our way to a great winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Chill folks, take a break and go get some dinner! Let's meet back up after then when folks are happier. We all want the same thing, but none of us has that magic cold weather/snow button to push (of course, if you magically do have it, please push it tonight!!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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