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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Look at where the AO is heading after January 6th... Excellent.

I hope that that is a good sign but the damage will be done by then. I have Magnolias that will bloom this week. Never seen that before, mid February, yes, but never in December and to that Forsythia in bloom, not sure what impact that will have on the Spring bloom cycle.

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I hope that that is a good sign but the damage will be done by then. I have Magnolias that will bloom this week. Never seen that before, mid February, yes, but never in December and to that Forsythia in bloom, not sure what impact that will have on the Spring bloom cycle.

My roses are looking better than they have all spring/summer. And their kind of pretty with the holiday lights!

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This would definitely be a SE winter if this came to fruition...big if though.  I do think the UK is one of the better seasonal though.

 

Latest UK seasonal

Do they have a breakdown of the seasonal?  The JMA showed something very close to that as well.  Basically colder than average for the Mason/Dixon Line and south.

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Do they have a breakdown of the seasonal?  The JMA showed something very close to that as well.  Basically colder than average for the Mason/Dixon Line and south.

 

Looking at the JMA..all 3 months are roughly the same and the three month mean does look similar to UK.

 

This definitely isn't the looks a lot of people NE of here are going to want but it's better than what we have now.

 

Edit:  The more I look at the JMA the more 98'ish it looks to me...

 

Edit2:  Even JB is throwing his hands in the air, looking for a cliff.

post-2311-0-09813900-1450097829_thumb.pn

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This would definitely be a SE winter if this came to fruition...big if though.  I do think the UK is one of the better seasonal though.

 

Latest UK seasonal

UK looks decent, though it was a little worse than the Nov run.  It's a little warmer across the upper south, like a slightly warmer version of '83.  It's a good seasonal model IMO

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UK looks decent, though it was a little worse than the Nov run.  It's a little warmer across the upper south, like a slightly warmer version of '83.  It's a good seasonal model IMO

Agreed, not as great as Nov but if I would have wrote that it would have caused a firestorm around here. In Nov I would have put any amount of money that at worst we would have to wait till Feb and it would be good, I wouldn't bet a nickel now.

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Uh....no.... That type of cold in July would set all-time monthly records. The heat we are experiencing now is not unprecedented.

 

The heat that New England is seeing is pretty insane.  Down here, a lot of us will break all time warm Decembers, but we shouldn't post +10 or MORE departures like NYC might.  People will be tanning in Central Park next week if ALL of the guidance is correct.

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We shall see . AO forecasts are horrible weeks in advance . As mentioned by NCRAIN , the GEFS and EPS show no signs of a weakening PV . Until that happens we roast

Not sure what you're looking at but Euro D10 stratosphere clearly shows an elongated PV, and GFS past D10 attempts to split it. There is strong influx of wave 1 activity right now which will soon affect it and by late December wave 2 activity will be in full swing. We won't see the results until about 7-12 days later, between January 6th and 11th, which also happens to be when analogs favor the cold pattern locking in.

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Not sure what you're looking at but Euro D10 stratosphere clearly shows an elongated PV, and GFS past D10 attempts to split it. There is strong influx of wave 1 activity right now which will soon affect it and by late December wave 2 activity will be in full swing. We won't see the results until about 7-12 days later, between January 6th and 11th, which also happens to be when analogs favor the cold pattern locking in.

Do you know how many times we saw the euro and GFS show a " split " the last two years only for it never to verify . Wave 1 activity is no sure thing to benefit us. Let's just assume the PV does split , that does not mean we will see the benefits . We have seen plenty of splits that send the bulk of the cold to Europe. Analogs are a tool people use to help shape their forecast. Just cause analogs may suggest a change does not mean one is a given. Analogs have " failed " many times before . With that said I hope those that are suggesting an early January flip are correct. But given the strength of the PV and the horrible pattern that is locked in I would favor a late January flip. This pattern is gonna take a while to shake

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Do you know how many times we saw the euro and GFS show a " split " the last two years only for it never to verify . Wave 1 activity is no sure thing to benefit us. Let's just assume the PV does split , that does not mean we will see the benefits . We have seen plenty of splits that send the bulk of the cold to Europe. Analogs are a tool people use to help shape their forecast. Just cause analogs may suggest a change does not mean one is a given. Analogs have " failed " many times before . With that said I hope those that are suggesting an early January flip are correct. But given the strength of the PV and the horrible pattern that is locked in I would favor a late January flip. This pattern is gonna take a while to shake

Of course I do, I've been following weather for about 15 years now so I've seen a little of everything in my time. The original post claimed that the Euro and GFS show no sign of a weakening PV, which they actually do. Whether or not that occurs is not the subject up for debate, my point is simply that your statement was incorrect because they do in fact show a distressed and weakening PV by late December.

Additionally there is far more than analogs and a weakening PV indicating a better pattern. Seasonal models like the CFS, CANSIPS, UK and JMA all point to a cooler January here in the south. Many pro mets who forecasted a cold January also forecasted a torch for the whole month of December, which is verifying quite nicely. It's amazing that we are having a torch December which was forecasted quite well and expected. Now that it's verifying, people are suddenly jumping ship and saying January will also torch. There is very little evidence for this at this time. If by late December models show a torch for the first half of January then it would be time to reevaluate and consider that, but not now when everything looks favorable still and the PV is indeed showing signs of stress.

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Of course I do, I've been following weather for about 15 years now so I've seen a little of everything in my time. The original post claimed that the Euro and GFS show no sign of a weakening PV, which they actually do. Whether or not that occurs is not the subject up for debate, my point is simply that your statement was incorrect because they do in fact show a distressed and weakening PV by late December.

Additionally there is far more than analogs and a weakening PV indicating a better pattern. Seasonal models like the CFS, CANSIPS, UK and JMA all point to a cooler January here in the south. Many pro mets who forecasted a cold January also forecasted a torch for the whole month of December, which is verifying quite nicely. It's amazing that we are having a torch December which was forecasted quite well and expected. Now that it's verifying, people are suddenly jumping ship and saying January will also torch. There is very little evidence for this at this time. If by late December models show a torch for the first half of January then it would be time to reevaluate and consider that, but not now when everything looks favorable still and the PV is indeed showing signs of stress.

a stressed PV would be better than what we have now but it's no sure thing that it happens nor is it a sure thing that it would be beneficial to us . I'll stick with a later January flip . Hell just last week the GFS showed a complete PV split and of course it's nowhere to be found now in the LR . I haven't found one Person that's jumping ship. But I have a hard time buying into early January flip. Hell even Allan Huffman a " pro met" is even now saying it's gonna be later in January before we flip

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Of course I do, I've been following weather for about 15 years now so I've seen a little of everything in my time. The original post claimed that the Euro and GFS show no sign of a weakening PV, which they actually do. Whether or not that occurs is not the subject up for debate, my point is simply that your statement was incorrect because they do in fact show a distressed and weakening PV by late December.

Additionally there is far more than analogs and a weakening PV indicating a better pattern. Seasonal models like the CFS, CANSIPS, UK and JMA all point to a cooler January here in the south. Many pro mets who forecasted a cold January also forecasted a torch for the whole month of December, which is verifying quite nicely. It's amazing that we are having a torch December which was forecasted quite well and expected. Now that it's verifying, people are suddenly jumping ship and saying January will also torch. There is very little evidence for this at this time. If by late December models show a torch for the first half of January then it would be time to reevaluate and consider that, but not now when everything looks favorable still and the PV is indeed showing signs of stress.

Yeah I agree it is much too early to be throwing in the towel on winter although to be fair, most mets who predicted a warm December only were talking about 1-2 degrees, not 4-10 above normal. Analogs are a piece, although an important one, of the puzzle for long term forecasting but anyone expecting it to verify exactly are not being realistic. All of the indices, PACJET, Polar Vortex, analogs, ENSO and many other factors are dynamically involved in forecasting and those putting all their emphasis on the analog years are short sighted

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Most of the seasonal forecasts I read indicated a warm December.  I think we can all pretty much agree with that.  But I don't remember reading that the monthly departures would be as warm as they appear they're going to be.  Also, I don't recall reading many that suggested the current strong El Nino would be acting as much like a La Nina.  I also don't recall anyone forecasting the almost record strong strat PV that is currently in place.  So, when we talk about the predictions for a warm December, point taken.  But in the context of the current pattern, the calls for a quick flip to winter may turn out to be in a bit of trouble.

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Most of the seasonal forecasts I read indicated a warm December.  I think we can all pretty much agree with that.  But I don't remember reading that the monthly departures would be as warm as they appear they're going to be.  Also, I don't recall reading many that suggested the current strong El Nino would be acting as much like a La Nina.  I also don't recall anyone forecasting the almost record strong strat PV that is currently in place.  So, when we talk about the predictions for a warm December, point taken.  But in the context of the current pattern, the calls for a quick flip to winter may turn out to be in a bit of trouble.

 

We can all agree that the magnitude of this heat was generally unexpected, but as a forecaster, you never call for a "record" warm month from 30-40 days out.  Forecasters that tend to skew towards the mean as the general rule of thumb, since they are most likely to verify (or not bust as horribly).  Honestly, the warmest December forecast I've seen from a reputable meteorologist was like +4 for RDU.  

 

The point is, the warmth was part of the plan.  The pattern 15-20 days from now is generally unknown, but almost all of the analogs show a flip in January from these types of Decembers.  How much of January we "waste" is very much open to debate.  Though, canceling winter now is unwise.  If we sit in the same spot on January 25th, punting is certainly a viable option.

 

If a 1997-1998 redux is in the works (and it's possible), it would be in direct contrast with what has occurred so far the last 2 months.

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