packbacker Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Well I guess one positive is the heights are building over the pole but other than that...it's only Dec 1st. And we will be saving on our heating bills. I wonder when the Aleutian low is coming back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It's actually encouraging for me because the pattern we are in has been following some of the top analogs quite nicely. They indicated an average to above average November, a torch for December (especially Canada and northern US areas) and then a dramatic flip to cold by early January as blocking begins to amplify. Also I've seen some preliminary research on the PV which indicates a strong one for October-December has historically reversed itself by weakening quickly late December into early January. If true and if that does indeed happen it would further corroborate the forecast of cold January/February. With such a strong Nino and active STJ it could be a fun winter and well worth the wait imo. Hmmm, now how do I feel about analogs, especially after last year? Let me think...oh here comes one now... Yeah I'm certainly in the wait and see mode right now. I can see a lightswitch to a better pattern like the analogs portend, but I can also see us being slow to transition and missing the boat untill March. I'm hoping of course for the former but preparing for the later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Not too encouraging from one with all the data ... Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 4h4 hours ago 2nd week of December not too encouraging for winter reindeer games. old-GEFS temp anomaly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Well I guess one positive is the heights are building over the pole but other than that...it's only Dec 1st. And we will be saving on our heating bills. I wonder when the Aleutian low is coming back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Not too encouraging from one with all the data ... Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 4h4 hours ago 2nd week of December not too encouraging for winter reindeer games. old-GEFS temp anomaly: Doesn't that fit the pcbjr cold winter analog though? i.e. Warm Oct through mid Dec, then flip? Or are my dates off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Doesn't that fit the pcbjr cold winter analog though? i.e. Warm Oct through mid Dec, then flip? Or are my dates off? You are spot on. It's the lawyer in me - state your facts, reverse course to emphasize the facts even though they may seem improbable when looked at in a momentary context, state your facts again with a little more detail - and make your point subtly and with humor; this post was the reverse course portion of my case just to emphasize -- before more to come ..... Flip coming and buy a snow shovel with 2016 painted on it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Hmmm, now how do I feel about analogs, especially after last year? Let me think...oh here comes one now... Yeah I'm certainly in the wait and see mode right now. I can see a lightswitch to a better pattern like the analogs portend, but I can also see us being slow to transition and missing the boat untill March. I'm hoping of course for the former but preparing for the later. Analogs have a bad rap because many times people use them incorrectly, that is they pick one similarity then find years to match that one variable. A good analog forecaster looks at many different things and uses the years with the closest similarities. This may include looking at the summer pattern, current fall setup, El Niño/La Nina state, STJ setup, blocking, etc and then finding the analog years that are the top results. While it's not 100% accurate since each year is unique I find the accuracy is quite good, usually 70-80% of the time you'll get the monthly pattern right. The good news is things are progressing quite nicely with the December torch, that's one of the most encouraging things for me to see right now. January and February should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Complete crap once again. Good morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Complete crap once again. Good morning. Good morning I'm looking forward to more rain today with temps in the lower 70's flip flop weather continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Complete crap once again. Good morning. pna.sprd2.gif The AO and NAO at least will be going in the right direction. But, the PNA will not. It's hard to get them to play together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 You know we're in bad shape when the AO and NAO must do an inordinate amount of work just to get back in the vicinity of 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 You know we're in bad shape when the AO and NAO must do an inordinate amount of work just to get back in the vicinity of 0. We snow by mid-Jan 20...until then lots of squirming going on, especially by me Go this gif saved for mid-Jan if we still are looking at -PNA/+EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern. Although when you really think about it, isn't it better to have all indexes wrong then having three things right and one wrong that messes it all up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 We snow by mid-Jan 20...until then lots of squirming going on, especially by me Go this gif saved for mid-Jan if we still are looking at -PNA/+EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern. Although when you really think about it, isn't it better to have all indexes wrong then having three things right and one wrong that messes it all up.... I'd rather have most indexes in our favor....much easier to change one than all 4. But I get what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 You know we're in bad shape when the AO and NAO must do an inordinate amount of work just to get back in the vicinity of 0. Sir, if we can get a split flow regime to set up we'll get rain every few days! And if in Jan it gets into the 30's and 40's some, we'll see cold rain every few days. What's not to like? I do not understand your questionable attitude! Please elucidate. Most precipitiously yours, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Lol f384.gif YES Positive PNA. Too bad the trough is in the plains and the NAO is shooting the Gulf and Atlantic into the SE. Might have to break out the shorts soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Sir, if we can get a split flow regime to set up we'll get rain every few days! And if in Jan it gets into the 30's and 40's some, we'll see cold rain every few days. What's not to like? I do not understand your questionable attitude! Please elucidate. Most precipitiously yours, T Good word! Even though it is an onomatopoeia, I still had to look it up. We are far, far away from a good pattern, my friend. Fortunately, we have a long road to go before it matters too much. YES Positive PNA. Too bad the trough is in the plains and the NAO is shooting the Gulf and Atlantic into the SE. Might have to break out the shorts soon Trimming the tree in the 80s is not helpful for getting into the holiday spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 As far as I'm concerned, the pattern we are in now is just fine. Highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s. I'll take that for early December. No 70's in sight through at least Dec 11 !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Pretty big run to run changes on the GEFS, new upgrade rolled out for 12z and some big changes came with it. Seems like a pattern change will occur Dec 18th ish, what that is remains to be seen but it looks like an active period for storms and storminess despite most likely being too warm for the frozen stuff. This possibly sets the stage for changes late Dec into Jan. 5 day (120hr) mean precip ending 12/18 (it's going to be wet, guys) Day 10: Monster ridge over NE, 540 line in hudson bay. Day 16: Broad trough most likely over US with ++ heights now NORTH of the hudson, 540 line in the lakes. Still a -PNA You can further see the ridge displacement on the comparison between 00z and 12z ensemble runs, both valid December 18th at 00z. 00z 12z It's good to see in the LR and it may take time to start seeing a pattern that will produce the changes we need. Keep an eye out on where this ridge goes and what the teleconnections say for the end of Dec as it sets up the first half of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Latest from Cohen on the AO. As we already have surmised, it looks to stay positive through first half of December. However, he's still looking for a possible change (albeit with caution) the 3rd week of December. Maybe we are starting to see the LR models sniff out a pattern change. Interesting that he keeps temps seasonal in the SE even during this "warm spell." I suspect this is due in part to the strong subtropical jet and the increase clouds. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Something has to give, this is just dismal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Good word! Even though it is an onomatopoeia, I still had to look it up. We are far, far away from a good pattern, my friend. Fortunately, we have a long road to go before it matters too much. Trimming the tree in the 80s is not helpful for getting into the holiday spirit! We bought a flocked tree this year because we decided we needed to see some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Here's the last frame of the upgraded 12z GEFS... 0C line is close to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Anyone who has access to the Euro care to comment on what it shows for Tuesday, December 8th? Don't have access to surface maps but it shows a strong vort trying to cut off near the NC border with cold 850s. Surface temps and precip I don't have access to, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Anyone who has access to the Euro care to comment on what it shows for Tuesday, December 8th? Don't have access to surface maps but it shows a strong vort trying to cut off near the NC border with cold 850s. Surface temps and precip I don't have access to, anyone? A Nor'easter but looks too warm except maybe the high mountains in maybe VA and WV. and that is a Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Anyone who has access to the Euro care to comment on what it shows for Tuesday, December 8th? Don't have access to surface maps but it shows a strong vort trying to cut off near the NC border with cold 850s. Surface temps and precip I don't have access to, anyone? Dealing with any frozen threat, the higher mountain elevations would be the most favored. The GFS was showing this possibility yesterday. "Usually" this type of air mass would provide no hope for us off mountain folks. Just cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Anyone who has access to the Euro care to comment on what it shows for Tuesday, December 8th? Don't have access to surface maps but it shows a strong vort trying to cut off near the NC border with cold 850s. Surface temps and precip I don't have access to, anyone? A Nor'easter but looks too warm except maybe the high mountains in maybe VA and WV. and that is a Maybe. It cuts off but the track is strange to me...only way it's cold enough is perfect timing during an early morning low and ULL energy. Verbatim it's flurries in the mountains if precip hangs back, flurries or a mix throughout NC as super best case scenario..this will change next run so who cares. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Good word! Even though it is an onomatopoeia, I still had to look it up. We are far, far away from a good pattern, my friend. Fortunately, we have a long road to go before it matters too much. Trimming the tree in the 80s is not helpful for getting into the holiday spirit! We are getting the split flow which to me the most propitious of signals for winter precip. If they keep up, in a month it will be winter, when it actually gets cold in Ga, and that spells multiple events one right after they other, and deep into Ga. then up the seaboard, as you know a ridge will form out west eventually, and blocking will form northeast of here, eventually, as all things change, eventually, lol. It's a fine pattern, and a normal Ga Dec so far. The mosquitoes are gone, my Xmas lights are going up. It's cloudy, not over hot today...happy times!! The pattern change is coming soon, no worries....and by the way I am not making animal noises when I type, lol, though to me, onomatopoeia looks like some kind of growth, or lump, just looking at the word...or perhaps a species of caterpillar, and I was ready to fight, until I looked it up I'll go out on a limb and say you could have another opportunity to predict an Xmas snow coming soon..so be of good cheer. Seriously, a split flow starts the show!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 A Nor'easter but looks too warm except maybe the high mountains in maybe VA and WV. and that is a Maybe.When are y'all gonna learn!? Bowling ball$ make their own cold, nobody should worry about BL temp$! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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