snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Excellent post by Isotherm in the main forum about the winter pattern we are seeing. Basically a summary would be that everything in December is as expected but there is significant wave 1 activity distressing the PV over the next 7-10 days with wave 2 activity beginning the last few days of December and early January. A displacement of the PV is likely by early January with a partial split as well. He expects a warm rest of December with seasonal first half of January and cold second half January and extremely cold February. I would encourage everyone to go to the main forum and read his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Is there an anal log out there that shows wall to wall warmth? Like big time torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Is there an anal log out there that shows wall to wall warmth? Like big time torch?2011/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Is there an anal log out there that shows wall to wall warmth? Like big time torch? I'll give you two: 1) Mongo from Blazing Saddles with a match; and 2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The EURO control which gets talked about like it's accurate lol looks like complete hell in the LR 12z EPS...... Complete hell Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The only thing that can be said for sure about the weather is it will change. The longer it's hot early the longer it might be cold later, because things usually balance out over time. Just hope it's not in March and April/May I'm encouraged with this warm fall. A warm Xmas day, with a cold short somewhere around it..... and a bitter New Years day could be in the offing. I saw that so much as a kid. I used to think it was the norm. I never started my winter until after Xmas day, as it was so often warm on Christmas, or the days around it....but I'd see some good storms around New Years day, or at least the good cold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The EURO control which gets talked about like it's accurate lol looks like complete hell in the LR 12z EPS...... Complete hell Sent from my iPhone It shows no cold in the East, throw it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The only thing that can be said for sure about the weather is it will change. The longer it's hot early the longer it might be cold later, because things usually balance out over time. Just hope it's not in March and April/May I'm encouraged with this warm fall. A warm Xmas day, with a cold short somewhere around it..... and a bitter New Years day could be in the offing. I saw that so much as a kid. I used to think it was the norm. I never started my winter until after Xmas day, as it was so often warm on Christmas, or the days around it....but I'd see some good storms around New Years day, or at least the good cold. TI keep saying, I've got video of Christmas 1987, the windows and doors are open, it's raining and everybody is in shorts and t shirts! It was mostly warm the whole fall. Then Jan of '88 happened!I know it's not an anal log, just gives me a glimmer of hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 All those concerned about the warmth will quickly change their tune in January as we shift into a colder pattern. There are encouraging signs on the Euro ensembles such as PV elongation and the ridge near AK sliding east. The pattern won't be favorable until early January and the transition takes time, 10-20 days on average. Patience everyone. Also, people need to stop using "analog" incorrectly. It does nothing to encourage the winter weather discussion and I'm pretty tired of seeing it used as two words. For those claiming January and February will be warm and that analogs are useless it would be helpful to actually provide data for such a statement. For example, stating "winter is over because November and December are warm" is like saying we won't have a hot summer because April and May are cool. We WILL have cold weather as nature does balance out, and there is a large amount of evidence pointing towards a cold January and February for us here in the east. Seasonal models, analogs, PV weakening, etc point to this happening in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Agree 100%. The warm bias is incredible this month, I can't wait to get into a favorable pattern. On one hand you can't blame them, on the other we know this month would be hot so "what else you got?"... Warm bias? Bias doesn't make temps warm, the persistent +AO and aletuian ridge does. What else should we be talking about...#warmDec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 All those concerned about the warmth will quickly change their tune in January as we shift into a colder pattern. There are encouraging signs on the Euro ensembles such as PV elongation and the ridge near AK sliding east. The pattern won't be favorable until early January and the transition takes time, 10-20 days on average. Patience everyone. Also, people need to stop using "analog" incorrectly. It does nothing to encourage the winter weather discussion and I'm pretty tired of seeing it used as two words. For those claiming January and February will be warm and that analogs are useless it would be helpful to actually provide data for such a statement. For example, stating "winter is over because November and December are warm" is like saying we won't have a hot summer because April and May are cool. We WILL have cold weather as nature does balance out, and there is a large amount of evidence pointing towards a cold January and February for us here in the east. Seasonal models, analogs, PV weakening, etc point to this happening in early January. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We're going to find out soon enough about January. About 7-10 more days and we'll start to get a good idea how the first half of the month is shaping up. Another 7-10 days after that, we'll have a really good idea how the first half of the month will turn out and how the second half of the month will shape up. We will know very soon now whether or not we're on the right track. It certainly doesn't feel like it. But there are a lot of different people saying we are, so I'll choose to believe that for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Exactly! It's easy to have things look good on paper, but color me jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Exactly! It's easy to have things look good on paper, but color me jaded. Dude, Relax. Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We're going to find out soon enough about January. About 7-10 more days and we'll start to get a good idea how the first half of the month is shaping up. Another 7-10 days after that, we'll have a really good idea how the first half of the month will turn out and how the second half of the month will shape up. We will know very soon now whether or not we're on the right track. It certainly doesn't feel like it. But there are a lot of different people saying we are, so I'll choose to believe that for the time being. Yep, agree, it doesn't look great for a pattern flip in early Jan right now but I guess all the models could be wrong on the strength of the PV and lack of strat help. Things do look a little better for the strat to get going in another 10 days with return of Kara high. Feb still is our best bet and I would be shocked if that doesn't produce, but here's hoping to 2nd half of Jan flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Yep, agree, it doesn't look great for a pattern flip in early Jan right now but I guess all the models could be wrong on the strength of the PV and lack of strat help. Things do look a little better for the strat to get going in another 10 days with return of Kara high. Feb still is our best bet and I would be shocked if that doesn't produce, but here's hoping to 2nd half of Jan flip. Hmmm.... Where have I heard this before ? Oh wait, it was just last year. I swear this is deja vu all over again. Is this Groundhog Day ? What a nightmare !!! Seriously though, give me one reason why this February will be any different than last February ? Lots of cold last February (7 degrees below normal in ATL), and no snow. What's different about this February ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I keep saying, I've got video of Christmas 1987, the windows and doors are open, it's raining and everybody is in shorts and t shirts! It was mostly warm the whole fall. Then Jan of '88 happened! I know it's not an anal log, just gives me a glimmer of hope! Actually, 1987-1988 was a strong El Nino year with some other similarities to this one (+PDO, Warm Indian Ocean) SST Charts from Nov of this year and that one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 18z GFS still nothing great but better than the previous runs. Looks like a transient shot of cold this weekend, a warm Christmas, another quick cold shot, and then maybe a pattern change near the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 18z GFS still nothing great but better than the previous runs. Looks like a transient shot of cold this weekend, a warm Christmas, another quick cold shot, and then maybe a pattern change near the end of the run.Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Actually, 1987-1988 was a strong El Nino year with some other similarities to this one (+PDO, Warm Indian Ocean) SST Charts from Nov of this year and that one: The thing that just screams out at me from the old map is the cold pool of water off of AK! Is that good for us ( for getting snow and cold)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I am enjoying the warm weather. I for one love the warmer weather. More comfortable on my boat out on the lake. All it means to me is one more day closer to spring. That said I hope all you snow lovers get you a good storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 18z GFS still nothing great but better than the previous runs. Looks like a transient shot of cold this weekend, a warm Christmas, another quick cold shot, and then maybe a pattern change near the end of the run.Also shows what appears to be the PV splitting and dropping down near the end of the run. It is the 384 hour GFS though lol so take it fwiw. Verification scores show the Euro outperforming the GFS through 5 days right now so I would put more weight into the Euro throughout the winter. Also of note the 18z run showed a few flurries for central/southern NC on Saturday. May not be able to post much more the next few days as my wife is getting close to having a baby, just waiting for labor to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I keep saying, I've got video of Christmas 1987, the windows and doors are open, it's raining and everybody is in shorts and t shirts! It was mostly warm the whole fall. Then Jan of '88 happened! I know it's not an anal log, just gives me a glimmer of hope! I've seen an awful lot of winters that seemed like this to start, and they got in some cold. It's winter, it always gets cold. It could be seventy most all Jan. but I promise there will be some nights in the 20's. Always are. Question is will it be raining into it, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I am enjoying the warm weather. I for one love the warmer weather. More comfortable on my boat out on the lake. All it means to me is one more day closer to spring. That said I hope all you snow lovers get you a good storm or two. Ahh, but the fish bite like crazy in heavy sleet...and you don't get the least bit wet if you have a pancho and a hat. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 I've seen an awful lot of winters that seemed like this to start, and they got in some cold. It's winter, it always gets cold. It could be seventy most all Jan. but I promise there will be some nights in the 20's. Always are. Question is will it be raining into it, lol. T And 99.999999999% of the time when temps are in the 20s it will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 And 99.999999999% of the time when temps are in the 20s it will be dry.It's the 0.0000000001 we live for , Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hmmm.... Where have I heard this before ? Oh wait, it was just last year. I swear this is deja vu all over again. Is this Groundhog Day ? What a nightmare !!! Seriously though, give me one reason why this February will be any different than last February ? Lots of cold last February (7 degrees below normal in ATL), and no snow. What's different about this February ? No guarantees STJ will be active, should be but nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Also shows what appears to be the PV splitting and dropping down near the end of the run. It is the 384 hour GFS though lol so take it fwiw. Verification scores show the Euro outperforming the GFS through 5 days right now so I would put more weight into the Euro throughout the winter. Also of note the 18z run showed a few flurries for central/southern NC on Saturday. May not be able to post much more the next few days as my wife is getting close to having a baby, just waiting for labor to start I hope the delivery goes well. One good thing, you won't have to worry about ice or snow on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Read it and weep, heat lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Overnight Euro and GFS runs continue to show good trends. Euro at D10 shows the PV about to get sliced in half with strong warming significantly affecting it. It even shows some blocking developing directly over the N pole region. GFS also shows similar developments which should lead to a colder pattern developing for us by January 6-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.