NCSNOW Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 LOL. Look at the bright side we are at the peak of the winter torch. The worse will be behind us after Thursday and we've gotten it out of the way. Now who knows how Jan Feb shake out. May and probably will just wind up normal, seasonal back n forth. But doubt we see a 6 day stretch of 15 to 20 above normal like we are going through now. So there's some silver lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Your way off. RDU is + 3.4 for the month through December 10 per Raleigh NWS. Where do you get +7 from? LOL...typo, I meant to type 3. Getting old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 LOL...typo, I meant to type 3. Getting old... +3 is hardly record terrritory, not even in the top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 +3 is hardly record terrritory, not even in the top 10 Why I said we will be approaching record warmth...It's just getting started, next 6-7 days is +18-20F departures then a few days slightly BN then another reload of ridging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Would like to see something/anything in the long range after we get past 12/15 that indicates SSW coming on or we might see bugs flying New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Why I said we will be approaching record warmth...It's just getting started, next 6-7 days is +18-20F departures then a few days slightly BN then another reload of ridging in the east. Is there a significantly high probability of that ridge reload? You never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Hate to admit it but I'm enjoying this weather. If it's not going to snow, this is the way to go. Yeah, I agree. Very nice out there. Buying some Christmas-themed stamps while the sun was beating down with temperatures in the 70s didn't feel quite right, but it is what it is. At least it was comfortable. If it isn't going to snow this month, we might as well have December Torch. The good news wintry-weather wise is that we can pretty much only go up from here. Well, unless we get pop-up thunderstorms next month with temperatures in the 80s. That would be a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Is there a significantly high probability of that ridge reload? You never know Yes, but I agree with poster above that the last week of Dec probably won't be as warm as we are now (delta wise). The EPS did start to show a southern plains trough getting going days 14-15. If that occurs, and a big IF, we would be more seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Hope everyone is saving all their Dec heating bill money for January.....you'll need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Would like to see something/anything in the long range after we get past 12/15 that indicates SSW coming on or we might see bugs flying New Years Euro shows elongation D10 and GFS tries to split it past D10. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 He got it from Packbacker ! Hahaha! Where did that guy go? He was always optimistic about how the cold and snow were coming and how RDU always jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Is this warm spell really that spectacular? I've lived in NC all my life and this sort of thing seems to happen most years, some more "severe" than others. Perhaps its the hopelessness of the long-range outlooks that are driving the perception. I have heard that the vortex is bottling the cold up in NW Canada. I wonder what there anomalies are looking like. I peeked at Eureka up on Ellesmere island a few days ago, and they were in the -40's F, which is pretty stout for this early in the winter. Actually I just checked and they are at -44 F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 January ridge takes a huge hit today, we'll see if the trend continues next few days. and just for fun, top left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Start a thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I will take Top left or Bottom Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Is this warm spell really that spectacular? I've lived in NC all my life and this sort of thing seems to happen most years, some more "severe" than others. Perhaps its the hopelessness of the long-range outlooks that are driving the perception. I have heard that the vortex is bottling the cold up in NW Canada. I wonder what there anomalies are looking like. I peeked at Eureka up on Ellesmere island a few days ago, and they were in the -40's F, which is pretty stout for this early in the winter. Actually I just checked and they are at -44 F right now. It's somewhat unusual, certainly the further north you go it's unusual. Cold and snow are somewhat delayed in the NE this year. But for the Southeast it's not all that unusual. I can recall plenty of "winters" where I was still running around in shorts and t-shirts at Christmas. So much so that personally, I don't even think of December as part of "winter". January and February are the only months I truly consider to be "winter" months. Honestly I think the thing driving the despair around here is that there's not much on the long range models showing significant change. Unless there's fantasy snow 10 days out for people to salivate over, they're busy planning the cliff dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 It's somewhat unusual, certainly the further north you go it's unusual. Cold and snow are somewhat delayed in the NE this year. But for the Southeast it's not all that unusual. I can recall plenty of "winters" where I was still running around in shorts and t-shirts at Christmas. So much so that personally, I don't even think of December as part of "winter". January and February are the only months I truly consider to be "winter" months. Honestly I think the thing driving the despair around here is that there's not much on the long range models showing significant change. Unless there's fantasy snow 10 days out for people to salivate over, they're busy planning the cliff dive. Yeah, I agree December is chancy at best, but I can remember plenty of times with "outbreaks" of mid 70s in the dead of January. I will say that it has been several years since we have had a nice cold December, so I look forward to that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 January ridge takes a huge hit today, we'll see if the trend continues next few days. and just for fun, top left... What sort of hallucinogen has the ensemble in the top left been ingesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 January ridge takes a huge hit today, we'll see if the trend continues next few days. and just for fun, top left... While the ridge breakdown looks nice. What I love the most is the huge ridge that looks to develop over the Aleutian Islands and alaska. Oh, I want the bottom right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 While the ridge breakdown looks nice. What I love the most is the huge ridge that looks to develop over the Aleutian Islands and alaska. Oh, I want the bottom right. Agreed. The headline is what's projected in Alaska and how it's changed in 12 days. Oh, and top left for me please! North trend and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Pretty crazy how the CFS now shows cold overtaking the south between January 8-11th, exactly as predicted by many and what analogs show happening. I guess those analogs aren't so worthless after all Also of note, the snowfall totals for January are pretty impressive from the CFS, I'm seeing multiple members with 6" or more for a large portion of NC and parts of SC for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 LOL. is that a record positive AO on the Euro? also a huge Positive NAO with a slightly negative PNA. EPO moving higher and positive. December is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Pretty crazy how the CFS now shows cold overtaking the south between January 8-11th, exactly as predicted by many and what analogs show happening. I guess those analogs aren't so worthless after all Also of note, the snowfall totals for January are pretty impressive from the CFS, I'm seeing multiple members with 6" or more for a large portion of NC and parts of SC for January.That will be pushe back by a week or two atleast! I guess Fan Feb is are only hope!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 That will be pushe back by a week or two atleast! I guess Fan Feb is are only hope!? February is going to be the money month. But, i think we're gonna get started in mid JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 That will be pushe back by a week or two atleast! I guess Fan Feb is are only hope!? Not likely. All data I've seen from long range and seasonal models as well as analogs points to a cold pattern by January 10th or a few days earlier. Everything is playing out quite nicely and the torch for December is actually a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Not likely. All data I've seen from long range and seasonal models as well as analogs points to a cold pattern by January 10th or a few days earlier. Everything is playing out quite nicely and the torch for December is actually a great sign. Hopefully this turns out to be a great call. On another note, no Joe Bastardi Saturday Summary today. Probably hard to do an update from the bottom of the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Hopefully this turns out to be a great call. On another note, no Joe Bastardi Saturday Summary today. Probably hard to do an update from the bottom of the cliff. LOL...hard to summarize warmth. Early Jan flip is going to be difficult, very difficult, but we shall see. We are in a pattern that just wants to reload, need something to shake it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Hopefully this turns out to be a great call. On another note, no Joe Bastardi Saturday Summary today. Probably hard to do an update from the bottom of the cliff. I feel confident in the pattern changing by then. I just looked at the Euro ensembles/control and they look nice by end of December, setting up good blocking at the end of the run. This is late December and the CFS as well as analogs show a similar evolution. It's hard to go against a combo of analogs and long range models showing the same type of pattern evolving. I've been saying since November that we would have a warm December then cold January and February. I made a winter forecast on a fb page that my friend and I collaborated on together. So far November and the first part of December have verified nicely and I really think January/February will be cold for many here. Here is a link to our forecast made November 6th and the simplified reasoning behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Hopefully this turns out to be a great call. On another note, no Joe Bastardi Saturday Summary today. Probably hard to do an update from the bottom of the cliff.Him and Robert are at the beach, talking historic winter business , while getting a suntan!Had a high today of 73 and had a dp of 61 at one point! So this is what Christmas in July is really all about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Him and Robert are at the beach, talking historic winter business , while getting a suntan! Had a high today of 73 and had a dp of 61 at one point! So this is what Christmas in July is really all about! Lol. Fun fact. We have a Christmas in July festival where I live every year, and it was warmer today then it was for the frstival. But on a more depressing note, how often does the weather agree with long range forecasts? I think saying the pattern is going to change before early January might be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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