BristowWx Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The cold source is over South Dakota, so I agree classic cold chasing moisture haha...It's ok we have another threat to watch hour 384 Anything we get at the end of the month in the way of cold, even seasonable cold, is a bonus. A cold Christmas would be amazing. starting to think the cold Christmas is at least on the table for most of us. Nothing really looks like a torch. Ok, maybe just seasonal and anything more would be gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The +AO is going to kill any chances of a cold east this winter. With the PAC low over AK the PNA/EPO isn't going to help. We need some strat help and it has such a long way to go it's useless even looking at LR ensembles. The warmth is nice though, feels great outside and maybe with such a strong ridge in the east that it will push rain events to the OHV. The good news is since the pattern is so bad the next few weeks we don't have to worry about having hope. I still think Feb will gives an event or two...was thinking mid-Jan but that looks very doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The +AO is going to kill any chances of a cold east this winter. With the PAC low over AK the PNA/EPO isn't going to help. We need some strat help and it has such a long way to go it's useless even looking at LR ensembles. The warmth is nice though, feels great outside and maybe with such a strong ridge in the east that it will push rain events to the OHV. The good news is since the pattern is so bad the next few weeks we don't have to worry about having hope. I still think Feb will gives an event or two...was thinking mid-Jan but that looks very doubtful. I'm really beginning to hate high SAIs and SCEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I'm really beginning to hate high SAIs and SCEs. I think I'll just hate all acronyms from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I'm really beginning to hate high SAIs and SCEs.And DUKEs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I'm really beginning to hate high SAIs and SCEs. SAI/SCE are for suckers....which we are :-) Little doubt of another winter mean +AO. Probably see intermittent blocking in Feb, I hope. If not it couple be a long long time before we get another winter that would be considered a "snowy" background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It does look like, on the 12z GEFS, that the NAO/AO/PNA are all close to neutral in the mean. I guess that is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Record low max for monday is 62. MOS would think we have a shot at breaking the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 It does look like, on the 12z GEFS, that the NAO/AO/PNA are all close to neutral in the mean. I guess that is positive. Just looked at it. The LR isn't terrible on the GFS...certainly not like the current disaster. Looks progressive, but at least it's not locked in torch city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The +AO is going to kill any chances of a cold east this winter. With the PAC low over AK the PNA/EPO isn't going to help. We need some strat help and it has such a long way to go it's useless even looking at LR ensembles. The warmth is nice though, feels great outside and maybe with such a strong ridge in the east that it will push rain events to the OHV. The good news is since the pattern is so bad the next few weeks we don't have to worry about having hope. I still think Feb will gives an event or two...was thinking mid-Jan but that looks very doubtful. Agreed. It's the crazy +AO that is the fly in the analog ointment this year I think. There is ALWAYS some difference, some specific condition, that makes general and wide brushing analog comparisons ineffective IMO. The irony is it's not necessarily the stong nino that's the problem, it's the stratospheric hurricane above the north pole that's overpowering the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Hate to admit it but I'm enjoying this weather. If it's not going to snow, this is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Hate to admit it but I'm enjoying this weather. If it's not going to snow, this is the way to go. Is that you Brick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Hate to admit it but I'm enjoying this weather. If it's not going to snow, this is the way to go. I've been outside wearing shorts and flip flops. It doesn't get any better than this in Mid December ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like the Dec 20th cold will get here...some thought the entire month would torch. However transient the cold will be, it's coming...so enjoy this weekend, next weekend will be polar opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 GFS has the arctic air escaping towards the lower latitudes at the end of the run. Been showing this for a few runs now. Well see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like the Dec 20th cold will get here...some thought the entire month would torch. However transient the cold will be, it's coming...so enjoy this weekend, next weekend will be polar opposite. We are at +7 through Dec 10th and next 7 days looks to average close to +18F. We will be approaching record Dec warmth, the cool shot is transient but I don't know if we go back to the +15F range, we shall see.So far we have had 2 days below 32F and GEFS shows 2 more, wonder what the record is for fewest. We have to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 We are at +7 through Dec 10th and next 7 days looks to average close to +18F. We will be approaching record Dec warmth, the cool shot is transient but I don't know if we go back to the +15F range, we shall see.Yeah by entire month torch I mean no cold shots, not the average anomaly of the month. So yeah, we'll see...overall very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Yeah by entire month torch I mean no cold shots, not the average anomaly of the month. So yeah, we'll see...overall very warm. If models playout as they are showing its and end to end torch. 3-4 days out of 31 slightly BN doesn't change that. It was expected although even this is surprising me on the deltas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 If models playout as they are showing its and end to end torch. 3-4 days out of 31 slightly BN doesn't change that. It was expected although even this is surprising me on the deltas.Right. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Is that you Brick? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 EPS says we picnic on Xmas, frolic in the tall whispy grass chasing newly hatched butterflies. #heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 EPS says we picnic on Xmas, frolic in the tall whispy grass chasing newly hatched butterflies. #heat Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Great video on the upcoming pattern....... https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Isotherm posted an exellent analysis on the main board if anyone want to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 There is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The massive ridge on the CFSv2 for January has taken a beating...baby steps. Clear ridge is moving north with time and heights over AK increasing. We should hopefully see this continue throughout the month, and a trough become more apparent over the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 First run I've seen do this as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 First run I've seen do this as well... Man - You're rockin' -- keep it up and all will be well You'll get the humor - I'm in stitches .... :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 We are at +7 through Dec 10th and next 7 days looks to average close to +18F. We will be approaching record Dec warmth, the cool shot is transient but I don't know if we go back to the +15F range, we shall see. So far we have had 2 days below 32F and GEFS shows 2 more, wonder what the record is for fewest. We have to be close. Your way off. RDU is + 3.4 for the month through December 10 per Raleigh NWS. Where do you get +7 from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Your way off. RDU is + 3.4 for the month through December 10 per Raleigh NWS. Where do you get +7 from?He got it from Packbacker ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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