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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Looks torchy next week too! Funny how that pattern flip is always 300+/240 hours away!

I'll do one better, if we get 14"winter total, at GSP oficially, I'll buy all members in the Greenville area lunch, even Isohomey is invited , plus the name change!

I bet I could talk Rick Irwin to open up for lunch  :lmao:

 

JK. This winter is going to be Amazing bc JB promised it was.  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:

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Yeah, I have them.  They only go to day 10 (weatherbell) and don't show a whole lot by that time.  Looking at the GFS strat maps, much of the elongation comes after day 10.  Up to day 10, they both look pretty comparable and fairly tightly wrapped.  Hope this helps.

 

Thanks! That sounds at least somewhat promising, if they look similar (even if the SSW starts up post-day 10). Now time to see if it holds.

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I wish there was a magic button I could push and fast forward to January 10th. Or maybe I'll just fall into a deep sleep tonight and wake up in a month.

February 10th perhaps. I think January will not be great. Just a hunch. This pattern seems stubborn and pattern changes always seem to take few weeks longer than expected.

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At least we don't have to stay up late for the Euro. Hey, I wonder if it's going to be +8 or +10 for the next two weeks?! Oooooh I can't wait for the 0z to find out!

I am on pins and needles

The good news is we go raging nina next winter and those are typically cold in the NW and warm in the east. Wait, we have that locked in this winter...LOL.

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New 45 day meteograms from the parallel Euro are snowy when looking at the RDU area :) Won't say much more but it looks good for January!

I wouldn't get excited over that new product just yet. It will come in handy when we have an actual pattern that supports storms and more importantly a storm we're tracking. What it's basically showing now is nothing better than climo with an ensemble mean of
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Although not the snow we want to see, Euro is dropping large amounts of rain across the SE between the 18-20th. Up to 5" of rain from that system and widespread 2-4" amounts over the Carolinas and GA.

It remains to be seen how well the new parallel Euro will do but the part which interests me most is that the ensemble support for snow fits in well with the predicted pattern change. They show essentially nothing for RDU until around January 6-10th with some members showing light snow chances and then a few heavy hitters right after. The trend is at least to see colder weather and a better pattern for snow by the first week in January which fits perfectly with analogs, what has been forecast and long range modeling pointing to this.

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