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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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The first seasonal model starts to fall

 

It's not a wintery pattern for us but it beats having a trough on the west coast, you can see the southern plains trough trying to develop. It's going to be a painfully long and boring process until we get to mid/end January.  This super nino is exciting and all but the weather is rather boring, unless you like a lot of rain.   We should start getting more active in the next week or so let's enjoy the sun.

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Didn't we have a record cyclone in that area a few years ago that ruined winter?

Off the record: All the ingredients are coming together for a winter disaster. Analogs will fail this winter as they did last winter. 

 

What a Spike in the AO Dec 17. It goes +4 on the Euro. The NAO goes +3 around the same time and the PNA goes Neutral at best. 

"cant get much worse" it's about too. 

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Off the record: All the ingredients are coming together for a winter disaster. Analogs will fail this winter as they did last winter. 

 

"cant get much worse" it's about too. 

 

Off the record:  Agree.

 

On the record:  At least Canada is decently cold.  So if we do ever get a pattern change, we should have some cold air to tap.

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Encouraging trends on the Euro ensembles and control run overnight. The control run indicates a ridge building over Alaska and another over Greenland in the extended range with the western trough sliding east by late December. The ensemble mean shows the trough also sliding east as we end the month, which is exactly what one would expect to see for a cold January and what analogs indicate should happen. Everything is on track for a cold January, it will be worth the wait imo.

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Off the record: All the ingredients are coming together for a winter disaster. Analogs will fail this winter as they did last winter.

"cant get much worse" it's about too.

Most reasonable mets are punting to mid January. We just have to hope to god that time frame doesn't get pushed back or we will be in deep trouble. One thing is for sure this won't be a blockbuster winter. We are burning so much met winter waiting all we can hope for is a nice second half but even that isn't a lock.

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Off the record: All the ingredients are coming together for a winter disaster. Analogs will fail this winter as they did last winter. 

 

"cant get much worse" it's about too. 

 

I am not sure about a winter disaster but I personally never though this would be a banner year outside of NW-NC/SC/GA.  

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Most reasonable mets are punting to mid January. We just have to hope to god that time frame doesn't get pushed back or we will be in deep trouble. One thing is for sure this won't be a blockbuster winter. We are burning so much met winter waiting all we can hope for is a nice second half but even that isn't a lock.

Winter doesn't technically begin until December 21st so we haven't wasted any of winter yet since that's not here yet. The long range models are all pointing to a pattern change beginning December 20th or so. These changes can sometimes take a solid 10-20 days to fully lock in which means we are right on track with a January 5-10th timeframe for cold weather. Interestingly enough the Euro 45 day meteograms from the new high res parallel Euro also show no snow until on or after January 5th for RDU. If they're on the right track then January will be both cold and snowy for many.

Also most winter forecasts called for a warmer November and very warm December. This is exactly what we are seeing and it's expected. Likewise winter will roll around soon enough if we all have a little patience for January and then the fun starts. All models and ensembles are hinting at this pattern change and it's the first time they've showed one in such agreement at day 10+.

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Off the record:  Agree.

 

On the record:  At least Canada is decently cold.  So if we do ever get a pattern change, we should have some cold air to tap.

 

Off the record: I agree too, and have jumped off the cliff...into the nice warm waters caused by the mid Dec 70 degree toastiness!

 

On the record:  What do the Euro Ensembles say today? 

 

I don't think there's anyway we make significant changes by January 1.  Persistance always wins out in the short term IMO.  Mid January I think is the next check point, but I'm starting to believe this is just not our winter.  Analogs shmamalogs.  I hope I'm dead wrong. 

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Off the record: I agree too, and have jumped off the cliff...into the nice warm waters caused by the mid Dec 70 degree toastiness!

 

On the record:  What do the Euro Ensembles say today? 

 

Good question!  The 12Z GFS builds a ridge over and north of AK starting around 240 and continues this through the run.  It dislodges the PV and allows it to migrate southeast.  We never really get cold, but the high latitude ridging is a welcome sight.  The NAO regions still sucks, but it's definitely good to see changes for the better over and near AK.

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Winter doesn't technically begin until December 21st so we haven't wasted any of winter yet since that's not here yet. The long range models are all pointing to a pattern change beginning December 20th or so. These changes can sometimes take a solid 10-20 days to fully lock in which means we are right on track with a January 5-10th timeframe for cold weather. Interestingly enough the Euro 45 day meteograms from the new high res parallel Euro also show no snow until on or after January 5th for RDU. If they're on the right track then January will be both cold and snowy for many.

Also most winter forecasts called for a warmer November and very warm December. This is exactly what we are seeing and it's expected. Likewise winter will roll around soon enough if we all have a little patience for January and then the fun starts. All models and ensembles are hinting at this pattern change and it's the first time they've showed one in such agreement at day 10+.

 

Plus, the average first snow day is January 9 for RDU, so it isn't like us not getting snow in December (though doable) is the norm.

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The blood will flow down our back, after being stabbed in the back, by yet again, anal logs!

When will we learn?????

 

We're not being stabbed in the back- a warm December was expected, and so is the pattern change that will come after it. 

 

A SSW Event has been on the GFS for a while now, and it looks like a split may accompany it (or at least an elongation). Can't post a pic, sorry.

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I am looking forward to your name change. Brick Rain has a great ring to it.

Looks torchy next week too! Funny how that pattern flip is always 300+/240 hours away!

I'll do one better, if we get 14"winter total, at GSP oficially, I'll buy all members in the Greenville area lunch, even Isohomey is invited , plus the name change!

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Looks torchy next week too! Funny how that pattern flip is always 300+/240 hours away!

I'll do one better, if we get 14"winter total, at GSP oficially, I'll buy all members in the Greenville area lunch, even Isohomey is invited , plus the name change!

Well sadly there isn't even a fantasy change for the better being shown on any ensemble. Maybe by Xmas.

GFS does go nuts with partial strat split though, which is fantasy range.

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Anybody here have access to the EURO Strat maps?

Yeah, I have them.  They only go to day 10 (weatherbell) and don't show a whole lot by that time.  Looking at the GFS strat maps, much of the elongation comes after day 10.  Up to day 10, they both look pretty comparable and fairly tightly wrapped.  Hope this helps.

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