snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Well here is 2009 SSW and 2010... http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~pmartineau/updated_graphs/svw_anim/all_gif/2010_01_30 Thanks! Euro shows similar at D10 so I think the GFS is on the right track. By early January it should be in the process of breaking up if they are both correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yeah...but warm December was always the expected outcome but so is mid-Jan flip... first 15 days of Jan warm too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 LOL...its pretty warm over the conus the next week but then cold dumps into the west. Does it migrate east in early/mid Jan...No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Well here is 2009 SSW and 2010... http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~pmartineau/updated_graphs/svw_anim/all_gif/2010_01_30 Thanks! Euro shows similar at D10 so I think the GFS is on the right track. By early January it should be in the process of breaking up if they are both correct. 2003 was close too: http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~pmartineau/updated_graphs/svw_anim/all_gif/2003_01_18 I think its a good location for warming, but any SSW is good no matter how it happens. Obviously a full split is best, but a displacement is better than a strong PV staying undisturbed at the pole. 2010 is pretty similar. Warming tried to get going in Dec but nothing came of it. This is my expectation for any warming seen in December on the models as Jan+Feb is favored in El Ninos (also posted graphs on this a few days ago) However heading into Jan it looked similar to this year's (but I'm not saying there's correlation here, just comparing years) 2010: This year: I just wonder how much stronger this PV is compared to normal and how much warming it will take to dislodge or split it...haven't heard much on that other than to say "it's strong" and i'm not sure that means abnormally strong, either. But I will say the El Nino has an increased frequency in SSW's but no more than La Nina, just more than a neutral ENSO, so we have that on our side. I almost want to say watching for a SSW in Dec is pointless but it does happen, however it doubles in frequency in Jan+Feb compared to Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Good news is December is playing out pretty much as expected according to analogs. Cold west theme with warm in the east and northern parts of the country.When we hit Mid Jan, and still looking at 10-15 day models for pattern change , we can officially jump! And I could see that happening because anal logs are good for sh$t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 When we hit Mid Jan, and still looking at 10-15 day models for pattern change , we can officially jump! And I could see that happening because anal logs are good for sh$t! I thought anal logs were just that Mack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 first 15 days of Jan warm too ? Right now it's hard to imagine with first week of two of Jan being wintery with how strong the PV is... I don't know if we will be that warm the last 10 days of Dec, more seasonal but really not a snowy pattern outside of the mountains. I could envision Jan-March being more of the same, shots of cold but never any prolonged cold periods but still active and timing has to be right. This is assuming we don't get a total destruction of the PV, I am going on the premise it will be just weakened and later in Jan into Feb we start seeing bouts of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I thought anal logs were just that Mack...This whole winter will go down as the biggest fail anal log , in history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Right now it's hard to imagine with first week of two of Jan being wintery with how strong the PV is... I don't know if we will be that warm the last 10 days of Dec, more seasonal but really not a snowy pattern outside of the mountains. I could envision Jan-March being more of the same, shots of cold but never any prolonged cold periods but still active and timing has to be right. This is assuming we don't get a total destruction of the PV, I am going on the premise it will be just weakened and later in Jan into Feb we start seeing bouts of blocking. Don't we reall have to be concerned about the Polar vortex split or SSW happening and then all the cold goes into Europe!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 This whole winter will go down as the biggest fail anal log , in history! What evidence do you have for this happening? I've seen a large amount of data pointing to the early January cold pattern setting up from models to analogs and quite a few forecasters also indicating this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Chill. There's always hope, even down here. http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/winters Although, if today's 12Z GFS is anywhere even slightly or remotely close to being anywhere near right, my October 1st call for cold starting down here at or about Christmas will be a total bust .... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KGNV# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 Chill. There's always hope, even down here. http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/winters Although, if today's 12Z GFS is anywhere even slightly or remotely close to being anywhere near right, my October 1st call for cold starting down here at or about Christmas will be a total bust .... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KGNV# Have you even had a freeze in Gainesville yet ? What's the coldest temp you've had so far this fall/winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Chill. There's always hope, even down here. http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/winters Although, if today's 12Z GFS is anywhere even slightly or remotely close to being anywhere near right, my October 1st call for cold starting down here at or about Christmas will be a total bust .... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KGNV# I think it will be a little delayed. While we may see an overall change to a cooler pattern around Christmas the colder pattern should setup January 5-10th. That's also what the Euro parallel indicates, PV weakening would have impacts about 15 days later (early January), and all models indicating the warm east pattern slowly breaking down by late December. January and February should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Have you even had a freeze in Gainesville yet ? What's the coldest temp you've had so far this fall/winter ? No freeze yet; none on the horizon. Unusual (but not unheard of, of course). 39º has been my lowest with frost - a few days before Thanksgiving. We did have a couple days in there where 60º was the high, brisk NE wind, but the nights were in the upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 and on the other side of the globe -- snow cover: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I just wonder how much stronger this PV is compared to normal and how much warming it will take to dislodge or split it...haven't heard much on that other than to say "it's strong" and i'm not sure that means abnormally strong, either. A good metric would be zonal wind anomalies around the vortex. At 10mb, we've been on the high end of the scale thru Nov (pink & orange), and have set a record here in early Dec. Another metric I like to look at is the heat flux into the vortex. We've been at the low end of the scale so far in Nov-Dec (pink-orange). Compare that to 2009...complete opposite with record high levels of heat flux into the vortex during November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 A good metric would be zonal wind anomalies around the vortex. At 10mb, we've been on the high end of the scale thru Nov (pink & orange), and have set a record here in early Dec. Another metric I like to look at is the heat flux into the vortex. We've been at the low end of the scale so far in Nov-Dec (pink-orange). Compare that to 2009...complete opposite with record high levels of heat flux into the vortex during November. Grit, I'm sitting here recovering from neck surgery, so my comprehension level is sub-par at best. Is this "bad" (not to know how to say it any simpler)? Thanks! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 ^ 2009 is like Mike Tyson coming out in the first round (November) and knocking down Trevor Berbick. Berbick may get up, but he'll be wobbly and not at full strength the rest of the fight (i.e. same as the stratospheric polar vortex during the winter of 2009-2010 after taking a heavy blow in November). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 A good metric would be zonal wind anomalies around the vortex. At 10mb, we've been on the high end of the scale thru Nov (pink & orange), and have set a record here in early Dec. Another metric I like to look at is the heat flux into the vortex. We've been at the low end of the scale so far in Nov-Dec (pink-orange). Compare that to 2009...complete opposite with record high levels of heat flux into the vortex during November. Cool yeah I've seen them both before but it's over my head, 500mb is hard enough. I think I got it though. Haha. Can you link me to the website you pulled the images from? I want to mess around with it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Grit, I'm sitting here recovering from neck surgery, so my comprehension level is sub-par at best. Is this "bad" (not to know how to say it any simpler)? Thanks! Phil Hey man, best wishes on the recovery. Sounds rough. Yeah, the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger and colder than normal right now. If it largely stays that way, the AO will largely stay +AO. We should see an opportunity for a breakdown late Jan into Feb, but we'll have to see. Noone can predict that with accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Cool yeah I've seen them both before but it's over my head, 500mb is hard enough. I think I got it though. Haha. Can you link me to the website you pulled the images from? I want to mess around with it. Thanks! Yep - http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/ Hey man, you, me, all of us, we're all learning. For the zonal winds, it's simply, the stronger the westerly winds around the vortex (at 60 deg N in this case), the stronger the vortex (i.e. stronger low pressure). Seems like another simple metric would be the height contour (lower being stronger), but I don't see a chart for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Hey man, best wishes on the recovery. Sounds rough. Yeah, the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger and colder than normal right now. If it largely stays that way, the AO will largely stay +AO. We should see an opportunity for a breakdown late Jan into Feb, but we'll have to see. Noone can predict that with accuracy. Hopefully it will happen much sooner than that maybe will start getting warming in the vortex Dec 20th onward?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Hey man, best wishes on the recovery. Sounds rough. Thanks man! No biggie - just a pain in the neck, as they say. One upside - I can't work and so cannot get sued for malpractice, so weather is the topic de jure - and hey - who can sue me for making a bad call/observation here? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Have to admit, I like the look of the 18z GFS long range. Looks like it is trying to sniff out a pattern change. Give me a 1048+mb high in Montana along with a strong 50/50 low and I will take my chances. That's what the LR GFS is showing. One problem..... it will probably be gone on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Have to admit, I like the look of the 18z GFS long range. Looks like it is trying to sniff out a pattern change. Give me a 1048+mb high in Montana along with a strong 50/50 low and I will take my chances. That's what the LR GFS is showing. One problem..... it will probably be gone on the next run. 18 Z - acid reflux and zonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Have to admit, I like the look of the 18z GFS long range. Looks like it is trying to sniff out a pattern change. Give me a 1048+mb high in Montana along with a strong 50/50 low and I will take my chances. That's what the LR GFS is showing. One problem..... it will probably be gone on the next run. I too like when the models spit out different solutions. Could mean change...but I really like that continuing theme of some solid cold dropping south from Canada. Might not be text book winter storm pattern but it beats massive ridge and +15 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nice model runs overnight! Baby steps! 6Z GFS , is off the chain , yo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Nice model runs overnight! Baby steps! 6Z GFS , is off the chain , yo!Yes sir! Def pattern change on tap around the 20th and beyond. Let's get the 12z on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Yes sir! Def pattern change on tap around the 20th and beyond. Let's get the 12z on board. Holy crap. not perfect but that X-mas bomb would be sweet if it happened. 6z continues the notion that things are changing upstairs just as Santa is getting ready to pull into town. 12z runs will be telling.....always wanted to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 JMA is less enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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