snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Really? I saw the one for 240hrs and it looked like business as usual. how massive? I only see what others post but it sounds like a positive The euro control on wxbell goes out to 15 days similar to the GFS. It shows a huge PNA ridge over AK and sliding east with a PV lobe dropping down with a large Arctic outbreak pouring cold weather into the central US and spreading east. The anomalies in AK from the building ridge are almost off the scale (+21C) with the cold anomalies also near the end of the scale (-18C). Good indications of the pattern change since the euro seems to be on board. The ensembles are also trending this way slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The EPS post day ten looks horrible. Sure there is a nice little break in the day 7-10 range but after that it's the same BS we are in now . Both the GEFS and EPS are fairly ugly in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Op runs are fools gold...they lead you down the primrose path. best to use ensembles until inside 7 days is what I hear from the experts on the board. But its fun to look and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The good news is all the models long range are pointing to a different pattern evolving which matches well with the expected transition to colder weather by late December and early January. When you have analogs strongly suggesting that and now long range ensembles and op runs hinting at it you have good evidence that it should occur sooner rather than later. Again the initial changes will be transient however looking at the big picture they're a big difference from what we've already seen. Furthermore as the pattern changes the cold air intrusions into the south will get stronger/more frequent and the blocking will setup for longer. I am still holding to my prediction for a much better pattern between January 5-10th taking hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The euro control on wxbell goes out to 15 days similar to the GFS. It shows a huge PNA ridge over AK and sliding east with a PV lobe dropping down with a large Arctic outbreak pouring cold weather into the central US and spreading east. The anomalies in AK from the building ridge are almost off the scale (+21C) with the cold anomalies also near the end of the scale (-18C). Good indications of the pattern change since the euro seems to be on board. The ensembles are also trending this way slowly. This sounds similar to the 00z GFS run, which is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The EPS post day ten looks horrible. Sure there is a nice little break in the day 7-10 range but after that it's the same BS we are in now Ugly May want to take that image down unless you have permission from wxbell as Euro images aren't to be posted publicly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The EPS parallel that Ryan added is pretty sweet Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Op runs are fools gold...they lead you down the primrose path. best to use ensembles until inside 7 days is what I hear from the experts on the board. But its fun to look and hope. Agreed, the Euro is good once inside its range and has done well with precip and track so far this fall/winter. It will be my model of choice for when we do get snow chances. All the Euro products I've looked at from the weeklies to the 45 day meteograms, ensembles, etc all point to a better but transient pattern after December 18-20th with a locked in cold pattern setting up around the first week of January. This is encouraging as the weeklies and euro in general has done quite well predicting the warmer weather we've had in November and also December. It looks pretty snowy in January, that's all I'll say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The EPS post day ten looks horrible. Sure there is a nice little break in the day 7-10 range but after that it's the same BS we are in now . Both the GEFS and EPS are fairly ugly in the LR would be nice to roll that forward 5-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 would be nice to roll that forward 5-10 days The problem I have with EPS is that it's often held as the might ensemble due to the fact it's verification scores are higher than the GEFS. However the EPS was not showing our day 7-10 cold shot four days ago . It was showing the same pattern we are in now. So the EPS can be wrong, has been wrong and will be wrong again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Here you go: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ It takes some figuring out but it's pretty simple. Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The problem I have with EPS is that it's often held as the might ensemble due to the fact it's verification scores are higher than the GEFS. However the EPS was not showing our day 7-10 cold shot four days ago . It was showing the same pattern we are in now. So the EPS can be wrong, has been wrong and will be wrong again. Sent from my iPhone when 12z comes out I will be looking for that ridging over Greenland that, when it appears, seems to make things better. If that is not there and all we see is massive low pressure its curtains...just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 May want to take that image down unless you have permission from wxbell as Euro images aren't to be posted publicly. lol, those images will be posted here, there, and everywhere over the course of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 lol, those images will be posted here, there, and everywhere over the course of winter Some of them are okay to post, the regular euro maps through hour 240 are fine (500mb anomaly and others) but the higher res versions, precip, snow totals, etc are against the TOS. Just putting it out there since it can result in people losing their service and/or Ryan losing his ability to host the Euro on weather bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Welp, last night's EPS run featured a +AO, +NAO and -PNA as we head up to christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Welp, last night's EPS run featured a +AO, +NAO and -PNA as we head up to christmas.Nice! Pretty much what we have been getting already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 at this point just having Christmas eve and day not be an all out torch would be a win..I think the wintry precip cold Christmas ship has sailed and sunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Thanks, all. Some of them are okay to post, the regular euro maps through hour 240 are fine (500mb anomaly and others) but the higher res versions, precip, snow totals, etc are against the TOS. Just putting it out there since it can result in people losing their service and/or Ryan losing his ability to host the Euro on weather bell. While you're right, he doesn't enforce it so people don't have to worry about it. Check out the main board, people post the EPS all day. Not speaking for him, but it's something he has to do so he doesn't lose the ecmwf. Sharing his models gets him subscribers, so I'm sure unless people are reproducing his maps constantly on another website, they're fine. Just look how many model images (and sometimes animations) you see from stormvista models and those cost an arm & leg. From a moral standpoint, I don't like to share the EPS at all unless I absolutely have to, and I think most people should take that route. But sharing it here and there is no big deal imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 actually reading donaldsutherlands post in the general weather forum perhaps a normal Christmas with seasonal temps may be a bridge too far. milder than avg seems to be in the kettle for 12/25. tired of eating this stew but we will continue to feast on it for a while it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Thanks, all. While you're right, he doesn't enforce it so people don't have to worry about it. Check out the main board, people post the EPS all day. Not speaking for him, but it's something he has to do so he doesn't lose the ecmwf. Sharing his models gets him subscribers, so I'm sure unless people are reproducing his maps constantly on another website, they're fine. Just look how many model images (and sometimes animations) you see from stormvista models and those cost an arm & leg. From a moral standpoint, I don't like to share the EPS at all unless I absolutely have to, and I think most people should take that route. But sharing it here and there is no big deal imo. Yeah just putting the info out there since some may not know or be aware of it. While others may do it imo it's not right from an ethical/moral point of view and it violates the TOS. I guess I'm old fashioned but if I agree to something I would rather do the right thing. Plus it's probably hard to enforce it because once someone saves a screenshot he would have no way to figure out who is sharing what when random images get posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z GFS hates winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 GFS is starting to show some signs of PV warming, obviously needs to get stronger but it is starting to elongate the PV...GEFS shows some support. Long ways to go though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 12z GFS hates winter LOL...its pretty warm over the conus the next week but then cold dumps into the west. Does it migrate east in early/mid Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 LOL...its pretty warm over the conus the next week but then cold dumps into the west. Does it migrate east in early/mid Jan... I don't even know why I look past day two . The GFS can't keep a long range idea for more than 48 hours . With that said the warm torch solutions always seem to verify Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Euro also showing the same weakening in the Siberia region at D10. Question: if the warming is induced in say the Siberia region, would the PV split occur in that area and migrate towards the warming or away from it? Is there any correlation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I don't even know why I look past day two . The GFS can't keep a long range idea for more than 48 hours . With that said the warm torch solutions always seem to verify Sent from my iPhone Yeah...but warm December was always the expected outcome but so is mid-Jan flip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Euro also showing the same weakening in the Siberia region at D10. Question: if the warming is induced in say the Siberia region, would the PV split occur in that area and migrate towards the warming or away from it? Is there any correlation? Well here is 2009 SSW and 2010... http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/36000/36972/npole_gmao_200901-02.mov http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~pmartineau/updated_graphs/svw_anim/all_gif/2010_01_30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 GFS still moving it along too..it does tend to be overly excited with this though, hard to trust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Good news is December is playing out pretty much as expected according to analogs. Cold west theme with warm in the east and northern parts of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yeah...but warm December was always the expected outcome but so is mid-Jan flip... True , I was wanting to see the change by end of December vs the first few weeks of January. Anytime you punt 6 weeks of winter it sucks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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