burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 lol gotta love the 12z in fantasy land. Descent CAD setup and then it spins a big ULL that hits NC with snow. .0000001% chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 And GFS with a day 11-12 big winter storm for many, LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:50 PM, burgertime said: lol gotta love the 12z in fantasy land. Descent CAD setup and then it spins a big ULL that hammers NC with snow. .0000001% chance of that happening. Wow, I am more bullish than you, I would say 20% chance, you don't see that very often, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:50 PM, burgertime said: lol gotta love the 12z in fantasy land. Descent CAD setup and then it spins a big ULL that hammers NC with snow. .0000001% chance of that happening. CAD setup at 240hrs from absolutely nothing on the 06z...classic GFS OP 240hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:45 PM, Jon said: We have essentially 10 days of runs left, I'm not sure how important the 12z runs are today...they will likely not show much different than the 00z. We just need to wait until the models still have it in under 5 days. The HP does need to trend a lot better than currently being modeled for anyone in the SE to have a chance. I like the inland track at this time (through Central NC), of course that can change as we move forward but nothing really indicates, to me, a low strength Miller A staying suppressed off our coast (more likely an inland to coastal bomb for the NE as the hp moves in overtop). Like you said we could get stronger highs to our north, we NEED that in order to cash in here and it's non-existent at this point. This is why I think the 12z runs are important, mainly the Euro ensembles. If we are going to see more of a Miller A track then we want models to start picking up on a stronger HP and blocking to the north. Since we are 216-240 hours out we have time, however I've noticed once inside 144-180 hours models begin locking down on a solution so we need things to start showing up soon if we are going to get a more suppressed track. There is so much energy flying around everywhere, short waves and low pressure systems, that the evolution and strength of them will impact future storms also. There will be 2-3 storms to track in the 10-15th range it looks like and with a good pattern setting up we should score on one of them, hey all 3 would be great but that's not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:51 PM, NCrain said: Wow, I am more bullish than you, I would say 20% chance, you don't see that very often, LOL lol big CAD storm OK..a ULL directly behind it that transfers to the coast and deepens??? Come on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:53 PM, burgertime said: lol big CAD storm OK..a ULL directly behind it that transfers to the coast and deepens??? Come on!! Makes sense...no? I am trying to feed the hungry...I get beat on for being honest so I have to throw in some hope or Mack gets on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:51 PM, Jon said: CAD setup at 240hrs from absolutely nothing on the 06z...classic GFS OP 240hrs+ Maybe GFS OP runs belong in the banter thread like someone suggested yesterday lol. Basically if you don't like what the GFS shows, wait for the next run and you'll get an entirely different solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:52 PM, snowlover91 said: This is why I think the 12z runs are important, mainly the Euro ensembles. If we are going to see more of a Miller A track then we want models to start picking up on a stronger HP and blocking to the north. Since we are 216-240 hours out we have time, however I've noticed once inside 144-180 hours models begin locking down on a solution so we need things to start showing up soon if we are going to get a more suppressed track. There is so much energy flying around everywhere, short waves and low pressure systems, that the evolution and strength of them will impact future storms also. There will be 2-3 storms to track in the 10-15th range it looks like and with a good pattern setting up we should score on one of them, hey all 3 would be great but that's not realistic. I agree 100% with you, my point in saying the 12z won't say much is that it's hard to nail down a solution in this time frame so you'll likely see one thing and the next run will give you another (same thing goes for ensembles)...it's just too erratic to tell you much. If you start looking at specifics now it will be a long 10 days haha, but I understand the excitement! 12z is about as weenie as it gets for N VA, 25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:53 PM, burgertime said: lol big CAD storm OK..a ULL directly behind it that transfers to the coast and deepens??? Come on!! That track and low transfer seems 110% realistic! LOCK IT IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 CMC OP has a big pattern change @240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:57 PM, Jon said: I agree 100% with you, my point in saying the 12z won't say much is that it's hard to nail down a solution in this time frame so you'll likely see one thing and the next run will give you another (same thing goes for ensembles)...it's just too erratic to tell you much. If you start looking at specifics now it will be a long 10 days haha, but I understand the excitement! 12z is about as weenie as it gets for N VA, 25"+ Haha next run it'll show a Midwest cutter the way the GFS is. Now when the Euro starts showing some snow and under 200 hours then maybe we can start getting excited, with many sleepless nights and PBP of the Euro taking our hopes and dreams away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:58 PM, Jon said: That track and low transfer seems 110% realistic! LOCK IT IN! You two are no fun, and I get called being negative..12z GFS was the gift that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Snow down to Atlanta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:00 PM, burgertime said: CMC OP has a big pattern change @240. Storm in the same period? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:02 PM, NCrain said: You two are no fun, and I get called being negative..12z GFS was the gift that keeps on giving. Wait a minute...are you NC Piedmont Weather on facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:02 PM, NCrain said: You two are no fun, and I get called being negative..12z GFS was the gift that keeps on giving. I can do without that (what would be) ice storm down here in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Back to reality...you see the HP now trying to build over the lakes on latest EPS, still predominately in NW conus though. Just need to improve...a little shift south/east would go a long way in the new few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:04 PM, burgertime said: Wait a minute...are you NC Piedmont Weather on facebook? LOL..you got me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Cohen FTW...his latest model/forecast for J-M temps. We snow if true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:12 PM, NCrain said: Cohen FTW...his latest model/forecast for J-M temps. We snow if true... We snow often if that's close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 4:29 PM, jburns said: The fly in that ointment is the fact that there is a lot of warm water off the coast. While that would help a storm intensify it also would throw quite a bit of warmth ashore with the moisture forcing the changeover line further west than is normal. That is a very good point! I think there will be a lot of messy storm...... #mixbag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:05 PM, Shawn said: I can do without that (what would be) ice storm down here in SC. No kidding. That would be a massive ice storm for almost the entire state. No way that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 3:26 AM, snowlover91 said: For those curious the high res Euro (parallel) meteogram for Raleigh has significantly improved in recent days. I'll let the chart speak for itself but good agreement for something between January 10-15th with that big storm from the SW. image.png Do you mind posting the meteogram for Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 JB's Jan forecast, that would be sick for ATL, -5F+ temp departures with active STJ...the Feb map is just as nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:34 PM, GlaringSun said: Do you mind posting the meteogram for Atlanta?Here you go! First one is the high res Euro ensembles and second is the extended range Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:12 PM, NCrain said: Cohen FTW...his latest model/forecast for J-M temps. We snow if true... The numbers on his map don't look like they match up with the legend. The best I can tell on his map, the darkest area looks to be -1.0 C. But that particular color looks more associated with the -2.0 on the legend. I can run a level 2 diagnostic on my multiphasic spectral micrometer, but that will take a while. Can someone else validate for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:42 PM, Cold Rain said: The numbers on his map don't look like they match up with the legend. The best I can tell on his map, the darkest area looks to be -1.0 C. But that particular color looks more associated with the -2.0 on the legend. I can run a level 2 diagnostic on my multiphasic spectral micrometer, but that will take a while. Can someone else validate for me? Looks like it matches to me. Each shade is in increments of 0.2, so yes, when you count the layers/shades, the darkest area is "only" -1.0C You are correct, CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 On 1/1/2016 at 5:40 PM, snowlover91 said: Here you go! First one is the high res Euro ensembles and second is the extended range Euro ensembles. image.png image.png Thank you! Doesn't look as crazy as I thought it was gonna look, but still looks nice.. It also seems there will be multiple storm threats throughout the 45-day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z GEFS is suppressed vs the 12z OP Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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