Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Let's get winter started ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Jammin' January will deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 For Greensboro I'm going normal on temps December, -3 Jan, -1 Feb on temps. Snowfall will be slightly above avg for the season, would be higher but mixing issues will be a big player this season. Big Lanina coming by summer for all the cane addicts and drought fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 gfs_z500_mslp_namer_24.png Thank you. nice weather in Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 At least we might get to normal by Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 At least we might get to normal by Christmas! it will be pretty close to normal here starting on Wednesday. Highs in the 50s ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 nice weather in Raleigh! Yup. Perfect mid-summer day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 gfs_z500_mslp_namer_24.png Thank you. Lol! That's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Pain and suffering on the CFS for Dec...well unless you like warmth. The past few days were very nice here, temps in the 70's and sun, if we get more of that I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Pain and suffering on the CFS for Dec...well unless you like warmth. The past few days were very nice here, temps in the 70's and sun, if we get more of that I will take it!Looks good! Great winter still on track! That model is never right when it shows cold, but it will nail that! I've already tossed December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Looks good! Great winter still on track! That model is never right when it shows cold, but it will nail that! I've already tossed December Weeklies take us to first week of Jan tonight, I can feel a good weekly run coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Weeklies take us to first week of Jan tonight, I can feel a good weekly run coming... Pattern change should take hold on or after January 5-7th timeframe imo. Until then expect a warm December with lots of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Pain and suffering on the CFS for Dec...well unless you like warmth. The past few days were very nice here, temps in the 70's and sun, if we get more of that I will take it! December makes no difference to me snow-wise and I really don't care much if we torch honestly. December rarely works out anyways for CLT. With that said, I'm starting to worry, just a bit, that this strong of a vortex, this bad of a locked-in pattern will take longer than foreseen to wash away to a good one. We eat in to January and that's takes alot of opportunity away for the SE IMO. It drives me crazy when good blocking shows up early/mid March....JUST in time to be too late. That's in the back of my head moving forward. Hopefully the last two weeks of Dec sets the stage but man we're in a bad pattern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Weeklies take us to first week of Jan tonight, I can feel a good weekly run coming... I do worry that everything gets stuck in the west again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Weeklies take us to first week of Jan tonight, I can feel a good weekly run coming... If you like posotive nao and ao your in luck. Wetter than normal and above normal temps for SE. West is cold. Never been a fan of the weeklies myself regardless of what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 New CanSIPS = party in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I do worry that everything gets stuck in the west again..... If you like posotive nao and ao your in luck. Wetter than normal and above normal temps for SE. West is cold. Never been a fan of the weeklies myself regardless of what they show. They were good, showing the typical +QBO nino pattern with warmth everywhere except SW...but when you roll the analogs forward it does get cold. All in all I like they way they looked, good thing we got the holidays to keep us busy as it will be a tough wait until mid-January or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 New CanSIPS = party in the SE Interesting it follows the global ens of shoving the PV over Siberia...if that does come to fruition I wonder just how cold we can get, it looks like a fairly good -EPO for Jan-March so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Jon, I'll take a few SIPS of that brew Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 December makes no difference to me snow-wise and I really don't care much if we torch honestly. December rarely works out anyways for CLT. With that said, I'm starting to worry, just a bit, that this strong of a vortex, this bad of a locked-in pattern will take longer than foreseen to wash away to a good one. We eat in to January and that's takes alot of opportunity away for the SE IMO. It drives me crazy when good blocking shows up early/mid March....JUST in time to be too late. That's in the back of my head moving forward. Hopefully the last two weeks of Dec sets the stage but man we're in a bad pattern right now. It's actually encouraging for me because the pattern we are in has been following some of the top analogs quite nicely. They indicated an average to above average November, a torch for December (especially Canada and northern US areas) and then a dramatic flip to cold by early January as blocking begins to amplify. Also I've seen some preliminary research on the PV which indicates a strong one for October-December has historically reversed itself by weakening quickly late December into early January. If true and if that does indeed happen it would further corroborate the forecast of cold January/February. With such a strong Nino and active STJ it could be a fun winter and well worth the wait imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Looks seasonal Thursday into the weekend! Storm track currently sucks, unless you live from DIA to MSP, and I wanted to post in the same thread , twice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Not really sure what the difference is with this thread and the other winter thread. I guess the other one is more of a prediction thread than a pattern one. Anyway, I'm not concerned about an average to warm December. I have seen the weather flip on a dime plenty of times during winter here. We can have sunny and 70 one week and a foot of snow the next, so we can certainly go from warm to cold from one month to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Happy December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 It's actually encouraging for me because the pattern we are in has been following some of the top analogs quite nicely. They indicated an average to above average November, a torch for December (especially Canada and northern US areas) and then a dramatic flip to cold by early January as blocking begins to amplify. Also I've seen some preliminary research on the PV which indicates a strong one for October-December has historically reversed itself by weakening quickly late December into early January. If true and if that does indeed happen it would further corroborate the forecast of cold January/February. With such a strong Nino and active STJ it could be a fun winter and well worth the wait imo. Exactly. Every long term climate model has been predicting a warm Nov/Dec since the late summer, which goes along nicely with the main analogs. The wildcard is obviously the NAO, which is nearly impossible to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Happy December! Indexes.jpg Lol your the best CR! Like the titanic we are going down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Lol your the best CR! Like the titanic we are going down! Thanks man. I hope I get to create one with some happy pictures at some point this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Comparing the strong Nino years that gave above average snowfall in Raleigh, we get this Compare that with the CanSIPS for Jan Now the strong el nino years that don't produce snow for Jan..I'd add the moderate year snowfall data if I had it but I don't. To me it doesn't look like we really need that ridge over Canada to move all the way west to a super negative EPO, we just need it out of the freakin' way...and maybe a west-based -NAO and a decently negative EPO won't hurt. Here's the all the moderate and strong el ninos for Jan, for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 So much for the Dec torch LOL: Probably gonna hang a -5 here in Greensboro on day 1 of met winter. We'll see come midnight. Course Wed should be a big plus before we run off about 3 to 4 days of slightly negative temp departures. Anyway almost 1 down and 89 to go. Clocks ticking, "Wheres the snow"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Thanks man. I hope I get to create one with some happy pictures at some point this winter!Lol yes that would be nice. A turnaround in indices and pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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