packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 "we" haven't, some have but not all. My area finished average in snowfall the last two years. I don't see any reason to be down on this year either. Look at my avatar, that's RDU's 30 year snowfall average....that's beyond ridiculous. JB's touting this period we are entering is like the late 50's which was the last time RDU's 30 year snowfall average was this low and we took off from there for the next 30 years. Makes sense, AMO flip, more -NAO winters, blah blah, so we will see. I do think the western/elevations do well this year but the 5" I am thinking/hoping for RDU may be a little high this winter. So I was never up for my area to begin with but my thinking is still the same as it was back in November. A meh 2-3" winter storm for central NC and maybe another 1-2" grass topper in a 2 week period sometime in early/mid Feb. I was much more bullish last winter and that was an OK winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 gfs looks cold for next week. highs in the 30s and 40s will feel frigid after this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 gfs looks cold for next week. highs in the 30s and 40s will feel frigid after this month. It does, but then the head fake ensues. Nice coastal day 8-9 though, first of many this winter. Edit: Curious if cold air could hang around a little longer and we could sneak in a ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It does, but then the head fake ensues. Nice coastal day 8-9 though, first of many this winter. Edit: Curious if cold air could hang around a little longer and we could sneak in a ice event. probably another 2 weeks before we even get our first fantasy storm to track, i think that is what the board needs. model watching with no 280hr+ storm will drive you nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 probably another 2 weeks before we even get our first fantasy storm to track, i think that is what the board needs. model watching with no 280hr+ storm will drive you nuts. Strat watching is interesting. Today is the first day I really looked at a surface map in a while, CMC agrees on a little overrunning potential the 9/10th. #ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Look at my avatar, that's RDU's 30 year snowfall average....that's beyond ridiculous. JB's touting this period we are entering is like the late 50's which was the last time RDU's 30 year snowfall average was this low and we took off from there for the next 30 years. Makes sense, AMO flip, more -NAO winters, blah blah, so we will see. I do think the western/elevations do well this year but the 5" I am thinking/hoping for RDU may be a little high this winter. So I was never up for my area to begin with but my thinking is still the same as it was back in November. A meh 2-3" winter storm for central NC and maybe another 1-2" grass topper in a 2 week period sometime in early/mid Feb. I was much more bullish last winter and that was an OK winter for us. What has me hanging on is a nice stat Grit threw out in the beginning of December....our best snow year averages come in strong Ninos, CLT anyway. That's got to mean something. Hopefully end of January into Feb we get a nice cold/wet pattern and that proves true again. That plus the AO tanking is a great sign. Just need the smaller intangibles to cooperate as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This board has multiple personality disorder. Some of the same posters who were jumping for joy yesterday are in meltdown mode today. The pattern will eventually flip. Hopefully, it doesn't take until the last half of Fab Feb to get a rockin' wintry pattern like last year, but it'll happen eventually. We've had rockin' Fab Febs and Marvelous Marches in recent winters, so maybe we're due for more of the same this year, though it would be nice if January finally produced again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Global atmospheric indices aren't derived from numerical modeling. They're based in magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Evidently it's always my fault You would think after watching and waiting last year for things that were supposed to happen, that never did, some would learn The last half of February last year had a pretty awesome pattern, IMO. One of the more wintry patterns you'll see, IMO. A major cold outbreak with single digit temps and two major winter storms in a 10-day period occurred in portions of the SE (4 snowfalls here with 3 accumulating). IMBY, we went from nil on February 15th to above average in snowfall by the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Global atmospheric indices aren't derived from numerical modeling. They're based in magic. I magic The last half of February last year had a pretty awesome pattern, IMO. One of the more wintry patterns you'll see, IMO. A major cold outbreak with single digit temps and two major winter storms in a 10-day period occurred in portions of the SE (4 snowfalls here with 3 accumulating). IMBY, we went from nil on February 15th to above average in snowfall by the 26th. I got to see 8 flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The last half of February last year had a pretty awesome pattern, IMO. One of the more wintry patterns you'll see, IMO. A major cold outbreak with single digit temps and two major winter storms in a 10-day period occurred in portions of the SE (4 snowfalls here with 3 accumulating). IMBY, we went from nil on February 15th to above average in snowfall by the 26th. Yeah that may have been the most active 2-week period here since the second half of Jan 2000. A decent sleet event, a brief but heavy summertime-like snow event, a surprise 1-2" daytime snow event, and a 3-5" event with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Global atmospheric indices aren't derived from numerical modeling. They're based in magic.dark magic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I magic Me too! How can those LR indices possibly be wrong or uncertain? They live by different, darker, rules than mere models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 dark magic? That. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That.I'm getting stationed in Hickam AFB. Our AOR includes the entire Pacific ocean, Japan, Northern Australia, and Alaska. They told us at times that the TAF for Hawaii can get pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm getting stationed in Hickam AFB. Our AOR includes the entire Pacific ocean, Japan, Northern Australia, and Alaska. They told us at times that the TAF for Hawaii can get pretty boring. Yeah...but when there is wx...they better be right! Especially for tropical cyclones and winter stroms. They have a lot of variability across their AOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Me too! How can those LR indices possibly be wrong or uncertain? They live by different, darker, rules than mere models. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah...but when there is wx...they better be right! Especially for tropical cyclones and winter stroms. They have a lot of variability across their AOR.Yeah. They said they had one hell of time with FCST ing this year with all the typhoons and Hurricanes in the Pacific and many close calls with Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah. They said they had one hell of time with FCST ing this year with all the typhoons and Hurricanes in the Pacific and many close calls with Hawaii. Have fun there. Hear folks like it a lot. I came so close to transferring my reserve duty to Hickam ABS a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Have fun there. Hear folks like it a lot. I came so close to transferring my reserve duty to Hickam ABS a few weeks ago. I know! BUT...... I'm glad you decided to stick around here for just a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Wow the GFS is BADLY under forecasting rainfall over parts of GA, SC, and NC right now. If it had been right, some of us would only have .25 at most. Reality is 1-2 inches widespread, with up to 3-4 in some areas. Yesterday's 18z GFS was even drier for today. I see our NWS did not bite and kept our flood watches going and very rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I know! BUT...... I'm glad you decided to stick around here for just a bit longer Hey I wouldn't have moved! I'd just go to Hawaii for a month every year in January. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Hey I wouldn't have moved! I'd just go to Hawaii for a month every year in January. That's all. Whew You shouldn't scare people like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Whew You shouldn't scare people like that I have a feeling I'll be "stuck" here for a while. :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I have a feeling I'll be "stuck" here for a while. :-D Suck it up buttercup, we need you here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I know! BUT...... I'm glad you decided to stick around here for just a bit longer Now if we can just get him to post in the pattern change, snow weenie thread and teach us a thing or 2 Congrats metatlicwx and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Now if we can just get him to post in the pattern change, snow weenie thread and teach us a thing or 2 Congrats metatlicwx and good luck! I teach periodically from the sidelines. I'm not getting down in the dirt with model chasers and wishcasters. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just reading the winter pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Time to ban NCRain! Pot stirrer! Get a job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Some here would be pessimistic about snow, even if it was falling outside. Others buy snow shovels based off the 7 day GFS. Everyone just needs to relax, we are exiting the pattern of death and are entering the pattern of unknown.. Chill. Ready for our teams to go at it today? Should be fun in the buckets falling from the sky. Go Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.