FallsLake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Another dreadful 6Z GFS. Barely below 30 the entire 16 day period.. Looks like last January. Lots of days not going below freezing but also lots of days not peaking past 50. Oh and still wet. Very Seattle like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like we are only going to see a couple days in the high 50s this weekend, if it isn't increased by then, then back in the low to mid 60s all next week. Above average, but at least I can shut the AC off. I'm just going to leave my AC on all winter. I'll disconnect the gas as the heat won't be needed. I need the dehumidifying action anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like the warm January and normal February is back on the table! Glad I'm still right about that. I was getting a bit worried for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like the warm January and normal February is back on the table! Glad I'm still right about that. I was getting a bit worried for a minute. Lol. Based on what one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Lol. Based on what one run? Last nights Euro and all GFS runs. So, all the majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 God the overreaction this time of year is always amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Last nights Euro and all GFS runs. So, all the majors. Well if you follow what other mets say that is normal in a pattern change. Every model run is not going to be the same anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 God the overreaction this time of year is always amazing live and die by each model run, its the weather weenie way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 live and die by each model run, its the weather weenie way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 God the overreaction this time of year is always amazing Who's overreacting? I just think there will be more of this the next couple of months ? Compare it to Dec 97..hmmmm. J-F 98 also featured HLB and we know how that turned out..LOL. #blindweenieoptimism I said back in early Nov we flip end of Jan into Feb but a wall to wall warmth isn't out of the question. Nobody knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Siting here listening to the thunder rolling up the hill... This makes twice In a week I have been in a nice winter thunder storm... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Who's overreacting? I just think there will be more of this the next couple of months ? Compare it to Dec 97..hmmmm. J-F 98 also featured HLB and we know how that turned out..LOL. #blindweenieoptimism I said back in early Nov we flip end of Jan into Feb but a wall to wall warmth isn't out of the question. Nobody knows for sure. There is a lot of overreacting going on in many areas this morning . I was not directly talking about you but to your post , there is nothing modeled that screams record warmth for anyone. Let's say we do continue to dump in the west with the higher latitudes becoming a solid block it's not like we are gonna torch . Would it be a great winter pattern? No not great but like every winter with the right timing we could pull something off IF we continue to dump in the west. IF the AO and NAO do go negative , who cares what the pacific does. Again wasn't talking directly about you and I happen to agree with what you have said all along - later January. But let's be honest we are already in a petter spot than we were . The overall H5 look over the next few weeks will be getting better and better Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I will banter/complain a little: It does suck that we possibly lose another January. The last two winters have been February/March focused and we could be looking at a third (I suppose we need to hope for that...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I really don't see the point in trying to make a case out of one set of model runs. Now if you see this consistently showing than that is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I really don't see the point in trying to make a case out of one set of model runs. Now if you see this consistently showing than that is a different story. Agreed 100% But that goes both ways, whether day 13+ model runs show fantasy cold or fantasy warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Agreed 100% But that goes both ways, whether day 13+ model runs show fantasy cold or fantasy warmth. I wouldn't call warmth fantasy. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I wouldn't call warmth fantasy. Lol. LOL..good point. We got the warmth down, we just need to verify this fantasy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Agreed 100% But that goes both ways, whether day 13+ model runs show fantasy cold or fantasy warmth.It's ok if the ensemble runs show cold 13 days out, that's $$! Plus, DT can't be wrong, it's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I really don't see the point in trying to make a case out of one set of model runs. Now if you see this consistently showing than that is a different story. You do realize that this pattern of a western trough/eastern ridge has been repeating for over a month now. Persistence would argue that it will continue. So when you see the models start to mute the cold push and re-build the trough in the west, it shouldn't be readily dismissed, even if it's one or two model runs. Also, there are some really good mets that are pointing to a warmer than normal east for the entire winter. Also, we have a very strong El Nino that is not waning as quickly as predicted and is pushing us into uncharted territory (few analogs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Wow, what a change of attitude once again this morning. Amazing. Winter cancelled again after just being un-cancelled yesterday lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You do realize that this pattern of a western trough/eastern ridge has been repeating for over a month now. Persistence would argue that it will continue. So when you see the models start to mute the cold push and re-build the trough in the west, it shouldn't be readily dismissed, even if it's one or two model runs. Also, there are some really good mets that are pointing to a warmer than normal east for the entire winter. Also, we have a very strong El Nino that is not waning as quickly as predicted and is pushing us into uncharted territory (few analogs). Not a lot of rational people on this board but your one of them. :-) And your wrong by the way, it's persisted for past 2 months, LOL. Nobody is cancelling winter, it has to start first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Wow, what a change of attitude once again this morning. Amazing. Winter cancelled again after just being un-cancelled yesterday lmao. I think alot of the reg posters had to go back to work today, so they are back to bitter casting and hating weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You do realize that this pattern of a western trough/eastern ridge has been repeating for over a month now. Persistence would argue that it will continue. So when you see the models start to mute the cold push and re-build the trough in the west, it shouldn't be readily dismissed, even if it's one or two model runs. Also, there are some really good mets that are pointing to a warmer than normal east for the entire winter. Also, we have a very strong El Nino that is not waning as quickly as predicted and is pushing us into uncharted territory (few analogs). Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Not a lot of rational people on this board but your one of them. :-) And your wrong by the way, it's persisted for past 2 months, LOL. Nobody is cancelling winter, it has to start first. The AO has persistently been positive too. Persistence does break, at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 buckeyefan really has a thing for El Nino...He must've bought her tacos and sweatpants for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Wow, what a change of attitude once again this morning. Amazing. Winter cancelled again after just being un-cancelled yesterday lmao. It seems to me most mets looking at all the factors as a whole think this winter has more of a chance of being snowy/icy than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Wow, what a change of attitude once again this morning. Amazing. Winter cancelled again after just being un-cancelled yesterday lmao. You cant really be shocked I mean that's par for the course.......anyone can see that the next 2 weeks are nothing like the last 2 months......what happens after that is the question.....indexes point more towards cold than warm and I would be very surprised to see us go back to a sustained torch like pattern anytime in the next few months...AO tanking and a PNA going + alone are enough to make me happy...if it locks in at all then the rest of the winter will actually be winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You do realize that this pattern of a western trough/eastern ridge has been repeating for over a month now. Persistence would argue that it will continue. So when you see the models start to mute the cold push and re-build the trough in the west, it shouldn't be readily dismissed, even if it's one or two model runs. Also, there are some really good mets that are pointing to a warmer than normal east for the entire winter. Also, we have a very strong El Nino that is not waning as quickly as predicted and is pushing us into uncharted territory (few analogs).the eps and the Canadian ensembles don't have a western trough. Nothing teleconnects to a western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You do realize that this pattern of a western trough/eastern ridge has been repeating for over a month now. Persistence would argue that it will continue. So when you see the models start to mute the cold push and re-build the trough in the west, it shouldn't be readily dismissed, even if it's one or two model runs. Also, there are some really good mets that are pointing to a warmer than normal east for the entire winter. Also, we have a very strong El Nino that is not waning as quickly as predicted and is pushing us into uncharted territory (few analogs). Sure but when the crappy pattern breaks it's on. Last winter we didn't have the stj like we do this winter so we can easily score with even a brief cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Cold Rain on the winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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