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December Banter

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

Yeah I don't get the snowlover hate either. His posts are pretty good, IMO. But I there may be back story that we don't know.

It's a conspiracy!!!!

But seriously, he's not Webber (Eric) for those still undecided...maybe that's part of it? Eric's posts were extremely technical and he knows the meteorology intricacies of things that many others do not. Twitter chains with discos between him and people like HM and others are insane. I think he'll be a prominent forecaster and met in the near future, he's already in some met circles and he isn't even a met yet...

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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Snowlover has been here since 2010.  I remember him posting back then, plus I remember he posted on another forum that I've visited in the past (not Talkweather).  I'm almost certain he's not Webber, or Wilkesborodude, or anyone else.

 

I'm a bit puzzled by all the drama.  Maybe there's something I don't know, though.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

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Snowlover has been here since 2010. I remember him posting back then, plus I remember him posted on another forum that I've visited in the past (not Talkweather). I'm almost certain he's not Webber, or Wilkesborodude, or anyone else.

I'm a bit puzzled by all the drama. Maybe there's something I don't know, though.

Yeah, at this point, it's time to take it to PM!
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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
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I'm learning about how this forum community works.  Who/what is PM?  And what is a disco?

Well let's see-

 

A PM is a private message so you can communicate with someone without cluttering up the disco (which is not a 1980's gawd awful dance scene) but a discussion.

 

A discussion is the action or process of talking about something, typically in order to reach a decision or to exchange ideas.

 

It is not barb throwing or posting maps without some rational reason to do so ....

 

I'm signing off ....

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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Snowlover has been here since 2010.  I remember him posting back then, plus I remember he posted on another forum that I've visited in the past (not Talkweather).  I'm almost certain he's not Webber, or Wilkesborodude, or anyone else.

 

I'm a bit puzzled by all the drama.  Maybe there's something I don't know, though.

 

I can guarantee he isn't I know the guy personally, as does Shaggy, Bozart etc.....he grew up in Pitt Co and I have known him since he was a 16 yr old kid......he has been a weather hobbyist just like everyone else up here and he knows his stuff, we have a small local weather forum on YUKU, he has been up there since 2008 and was on Easternwx even....like you I am not sure what the problem is.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

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I can guarantee he isn't I know the guy personally, as does Shaggy, Bozart etc.....he grew up in Pitt Co and I have known him since he was a 16 yr old kid......he has been a weather hobbyist just like everyone else up here and he knows his stuff, we have a small local weather forum on YUKU, he has been up there since 2008 and was on Easternwx even....like you I am not sure what the problem is.

^This. I have been around awhile and am none of the names mentioned. I've had this same account since 2010. I'm not an expert but do enjoy reading behind them and posting my own research, methods used and thoughts. After all that's what a discussion board is for. I have no idea why there are one or two who call out my posts when I mention a LR model or what my thoughts on the pattern change are.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
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In some respects, I miss webber.

 

Despite the fact I never understood a word he said and he was always long winded, long term and theoretical - he did bring some science here.

 

How's about some science in the posts and not telling us what the picture post says (I can see what it says)  - what does the pic mean, and where is it taking us, and WHY?

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snowlover91

snowlover91

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The ego is strong smh.......changing an IP/name doesn't mean they've learned any lessons since being banned last winter. Maybe we should start a poll on how long it takes before the ego is 5 posted or banned :lol:

Is this a reference to me or someone else? I've never been banned from this forum or even had a warning and do my best to stay within the boundaries of discussion and keep things civil.

I'm confused. Do you think that snowlover is Webber? Snowlover's posts are much shorter and not nearly as technical as webbers from last winter.

Why the passive aggressive behavior? If someone breaks a rule, lower the boom. Until then, there's nothing to do. It seems like you are stirring the pot, which doesn't seem to be behavior that a moderator should be using.

I'm sorry if I sound harsh. There may be more to the story that I don't know. If appropriate and you are so inclined, send me a pm or post here. Transparency would more than likely clear up any confusion. Thank you for your efforts as a moderator.

Definitely not Webber. He was a met or interesting in becoming one from what I remember and was quite technical. I remember reading his posts last winter. Different person. I've been around since 2010 but haven't posted much until recently. I've learned a lot from some of the great mets like Don S., Foothills, Isotherm, etc and enjoy learning new techniques for long range/seasonal forecasting.

Yeah I don't get the snowlover hate either. His posts are pretty good, IMO. But I there may be back story that we don't know.

If there is a backstory I would like to know as well, no idea what's going on.

It's a conspiracy!!!!

But seriously, he's not Webber (Eric) for those still undecided...maybe that's part of it? Eric's posts were extremely technical and he knows the meteorology intricacies of things that many others do not. Twitter chains with discos between him and people like HM and others are insane. I think he'll be a prominent forecaster and met in the near future, he's already in some met circles and he isn't even a met yet...

I'm definitely not Webber. Some on this board know me personally and can confirm as such. My IP address would also confirm that as well, and I've had the same screen name since 2010. I just enjoy discussing weather events, patterns, models, seasonal forecasting methods, etc like everyone else.

Snowlover has been here since 2010. I remember him posting back then, plus I remember he posted on another forum that I've visited in the past (not Talkweather). I'm almost certain he's not Webber, or Wilkesborodude, or anyone else.

I'm a bit puzzled by all the drama. Maybe there's something I don't know, though.

This is the only other weather board I post on here. it's a small community and I personally know several of the members and have met a few like downeast, shaggy and a few others. I'm not anyone else, just myself :)
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J.C.

J.C.

Posted
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Honestly the GFS just gets warmer and warmer, etc, drama queens come out of the closet.

 

 

And we are still 4 days away from this cool down.  If things keep trending warmer, we will still be above average behind the front.  We are just reverting to the slightly above average pattern we had before the record warmth.  

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packfan98

packfan98

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^This. I have been around awhile and am none of the names mentioned. I've had this same account since 2010. I'm not an expert but do enjoy reading behind them and posting my own research, methods used and thoughts. After all that's what a discussion board is for. I have no idea why there are one or two who call out my posts when I mention a LR model or what my thoughts on the pattern change are.

Keep posting! I enjoy your posts. They are well thought out. There is no rule that says you can't use long term models. I would say that well over half of the posts on the board refer to long range modeling. I'm just glad we can use the GFS and euro now instead of the CFS.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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This is the only other weather board I post on here. it's a small community and I personally know several of the members and have met a few like downeast, shaggy and a few others. I'm not anyone else, just myself :)

Yeah, that's the forum I was speaking of. I am a member, as well, though I have not posted in forever. Perhaps I will jump on there again once winter gets cooking.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

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Keep posting! I enjoy your posts. They are well thought out. There is no rule that says you can't use long term models. I would say that well over half of the posts on the board refer to long range modeling. I'm just glad we can use the GFS and euro now instead of the CFS.

Thank you! I enjoy learning new methods of long range forecasting, it's an area I have a strong interest in currently. When forecasting long range pattern changes and making winter forecasts the tools I use most are analogs, seasonal models like the CFS, Euro weeklies, UK, JMA and CANSIPS. Once a pattern change is 10-15 days away it's then helpful to use long range ensembles and notice the trends rather than specifics.

As an example of the usefulness I purpose saved an image of the Euro Ensembles from December 19th. When I referenced the early pattern change I was attacked for posting a 300+ hour map that suggested an early pattern change. The key takeaway is this; at 360 hours it hinted at a shift from ridging in the East to a weak trough with ridging out west. The beginning of a pattern change which many thought in many December would never happen yet long range ensembles proved useful in picking up on the overall changes.

December 19th Euro Ensemble for 360 hours. Valid for January 3rd.

post-2321-0-67613400-1451352381_thumb.pn

Now the Euro at hour 144 for the same date. Notice the ensemble run posted above was useful in picking up on the overall change with ridging in Canada and a trough along the Eastern Seaboard. The exact placement and strength is obviously off but it did pick up on the overall changes. There is some value in 300+ hour ensemble runs at picking up long range pattern changes and imo that is the main way they should be used.

post-2321-0-57578100-1451352452_thumb.pn

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Ya know, really no need for sarcasm, if it is not sarcasm I apologize. I am disgusted too..

Your sarcasm detector is functioning within normal parameters. Look, I'm as skeptical of strong ninos as anyone, but to embrace the operfreakingrational GFS, particularly outside of 3 days, particularly, when it is opposed its ensembles, particularly when its opposed to the Euro and its ensembles, particularly when it is opposed to the way decaying Ninos tend to impact the atmosphere, particularly when it's opposed to the way many atmospheric pattern influences appear to be aligning, particularly when it's opposed to the analogue pool, as your model of choice for defining the upcoming pattern is not the best idea in the idea jar. The pattern may turn out as bad or worse than the one we're just coming out of. But it won't be because the GFS says so.

Maybe my sarcasm detector is broken and you were actually being sarcastic with your post. That has to be it, because you can't possibly be serious with the GFS stuff.

Come on man. :)

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