Bevo Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 What's up Bevo? How are you, man? As good as can be. I check the forum still, but all I read are threads full of one-liners and complaints, so I just don't really post anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 As good as can be. I check the forum still, but all I read are threads full of one-liners and complaints, so I just don't really post anymore. Well, it's probably because there's no winter yet. It'll probably get better in a week or so. I hope you start posting more. We need less bollocks around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This forum has become as much of a dumpster fire as the current weather.As it is in this time of the warmer... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well, it's probably because there's no winter yet. It'll probably get better in a week or so. I hope you start posting more. We need less bollocks around here! Yeah - winter or not though, the salt levels are super charged about something no one likes at the moment. Saying it over and over doesn't change anything. I'm sure I'll post more when there's something to post about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This should help the board if the CFSv2 is right. We get the screw job in GSP but most of the rest of the board would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 This should help the board if the CFSv2 is right. We get the screw job in GSP but most of the rest of the board would be happy While we are wish casting and snipe hunting, I'll take the 2nd panel! Looking forward to seasonal temps this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 As good as can be. I check the forum still, but all I read are threads full of one-liners and complaints, so I just don't really post anymore. Don't forget about the wishcasting too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm glad I didn't chase to Amarillo! Think they busted pretty hard with totals! I mean they rocked the blizzard with the 40-50 mph winds, but everytime I checked the radar, they looked to be in a snowhole!Yeah, they busted really hard. They were forecasted to get 18-24 inches and only got 3.8. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I just read thee last couple of pages of the discussion thread and I just have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I just read thee last couple of pages of the discussion thread and I just have to say . The only thing I look forward to in the discussion thread is Cold Rain teleconnection picture posts. Those usually make my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 +13 here for the month. Today will be another typical 86 degree day . This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 +13 here for the month. Today will be another typical 86 degree day . This is insane.Waycross-type nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 . The only thing I look forward to in the discussion thread is Cold Rain teleconnection picture posts. Those usually make my day. Those are priceless What's sad is the amount of "followers" people will have because they say what they want to hear and believe. Those people don't bother to do their own research. Gawd forbid anyone having to actually learn how to read a model,or anything else in life that doesn't meet their thinking. There's an "easy" button where everything is deciphered for them and they "follow" others that match their thinking. They are easy to spot, as they steer clear of any real discussion by knowledgeable people, but will "quote" them when they agree in order to stroke their never ending ego....I miss the old days where people just didn't scroll past the stoopidity, but called it for what it is Just sayin............... /[endrant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 +13 here for the month. Today will be another typical 86 degree day . This is insane. +11.4F for RDU and with the warmth the rest of the week we should finish right around +12F. This should go down as one of the warmest strong nino's ever. Even if Jan-Feb average -2 to -4F which would be really really cold that would put us in the +4 to 5F for DJF. It would handily beat 92 and 98 as the warmest strong nino's ever. And we were worried about being warmer than 98, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 What a screwed up world we're evolving in to. GREENVILLE, SC (FOX Carolina) -Greenville police said a man was arrested after pointing a gun at two pedestrians who asked the man to slow down as he drove through a residential area on Christmas Day.The incident happened around 2 p.m. on Dec. 25.Police said two people were walking their dog in the Parkins Mill area when a vehicle sped by. The couple motioned for the driver to slow down and police said an argument broke out between the couple and the driver, Cody Cole.Cole sped off and then returned a short time later and pointed a gun at the couple, who in turn took down his vehicle information and called police“When officers responded, they were able to locate the individual and recovered the firearm and the subject provided information as to his involvement in the incident,” said Officer Johnathan Bragg with the Greenville Police Department.Cole was arrested and charged with two counts of pointing and presenting a firearm, Bragg said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Man, there have been some warmer runs of models and it's thrown away as wrong. Then we have 360 hour + runs of fantasy storms being taken seriously. I do not understand. I personally think anything past hour 192 (storm threats) shouldn't be in the pattern thread but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Man, there have been some warmer runs of models and it's thrown away as wrong. Then we have 360 hour + runs of fantasy storms being taken seriously. I do not understand. This is easy. We've been taking warm progs seriously for the past 2 months. Now that we have some actual winter patterns showing up, people are starting to get excited. Don's post in the main forum looks pretty good. Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This is easy. We've been taking warm progs seriously for the past 2 months. Now that we have some actual winter patterns showing up, people are starting to get excited. Don's post in the main forum looks pretty good. Check it out. This is the thread/post you speak of? - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3816344 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This is the thread/post you speak of? - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?p=3816344 Yeah...it sounded pretty good to me. I don't think it's realistic to expect an immediate flip from a record warm pattern to a Mac-daddy snow pattern. It'll probably take some time and we'll see some bad model runs along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah...it sounded pretty good to me. I don't think it's realistic to expect an immediate flip from a record warm pattern to a Mac-daddy snow pattern. It'll probably take some time and we'll see some bad model runs along the way. Same here. I agree with the transition period he talked about.... you can't just flip a switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Read a really good quote today. The world would be a better place, if we didn't criticize,condem, or complain! Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Good times await! Snow is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah...it sounded pretty good to me. I don't think it's realistic to expect an immediate flip from a record warm pattern to a Mac-daddy snow pattern. It'll probably take some time and we'll see some bad model runs along the way. Well, given the odds of it happening, I don't think you can throw out that possibility though. We've got a record El Nino out in the Pacific now that we've never seen since being able to have all the weather tech that we have now. I feel that the possibility of the unknown is higher because of it. I believe that a major flip can occur faster than most people think. (Not even a hunch, just a ballpark possibility). Read a really good quote today. The world would be a better place, if we didn't criticize,condem, or complain! Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Good times await! Snow is right around the corner. I disagree with this quote. How are you supposed to meet your potential if no one ever criticizes you. a portion of life is criticism, and that's how you know what you did wrong. Granted people don't realize what criticism is anymore and resort to complaining. Hope you had a Merry Christmas as well and hopefully by the weekend all the snow guns can be firing on the slopes at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Man, there have been some warmer runs of models and it's thrown away as wrong. Then we have 360 hour + runs of fantasy storms being taken seriously. I do not understand. I personally think anything past hour 192 (storm threats) shouldn't be in the pattern thread but meh. The only model I've seen warmer during the first week of January is the GFS, which doesn't surprise me considering how much it struggles during pattern changes or times of volatility. It is terrible with them with 5 day verification scores dropping like a rock, literally. The fact that it earlier showed super cold first week of January and now mild isn't surprising, it's having a hard time figuring it out. Best thing to use during pattern changes are a blend of the various ensembles which are in good agreement of cooler weather the first week of January with the pattern further amplifying by January 10th and getting much colder here in the Southeast. CMC, Euro and GFS ensembles all shows this quite well and Euro OP through 240 is much different than GFS. I don't use GFS OP when in patterns of volatility or a changing pattern, it struggles and flips around way too much. This is why people are "discrediting" it since it has no agreement from other models and completely disagrees with its own ensembles. I posted about it in the main discussion thread for winter with a graph illustrating how it struggles with 5 day verification scores compared to the Euro, check it out on page 43 it shows it quite well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 12Z GFS sucks again, barely below freezing for the 16 day period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The only model I've seen warmer during the first week of January is the GFS, which doesn't surprise me considering how much it struggles during pattern changes or times of volatility. It is terrible with them with 5 day verification scores dropping like a rock, literally. The fact that it earlier showed super cold first week of January and now mild isn't surprising, it's having a hard time figuring it out. Best thing to use during pattern changes are a blend of the various ensembles which are in good agreement of cooler weather the first week of January with the pattern further amplifying by January 10th and getting much colder here in the Southeast. CMC, Euro and GFS ensembles all shows this quite well and Euro OP through 240 is much different than GFS. I don't use GFS OP when in patterns of volatility or a changing pattern, it struggles and flips around way too much. This is why people are "discrediting" it since it has no agreement from other models and completely disagrees with its own ensembles. I posted about it in the main discussion thread for winter with a graph illustrating how it struggles with 5 day verification scores compared to the Euro, check it out on page 43 it shows it quite well! I agree and wasn't talking about your posts so much as just the idea that some believe a 300 hour + run if it shows snow/storm chances but won't believe the same run/hour if its warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Please explain again how to engage the "ignore" feature, Michelle I seriously can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well, given the odds of it happening, I don't think you can throw out that possibility though. We've got a record El Nino out in the Pacific now that we've never seen since being able to have all the weather tech that we have now. I feel that the possibility of the unknown is higher because of it. I believe that a major flip can occur faster than most people think. (Not even a hunch, just a ballpark possibility). Yeah, I don't mean to indicate that it's impossible for a pattern flip from locked in super warm to locked in super cold to occur. It's just that it seems more reasonable (and likely) for us to work out way there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Please explain again how to engage the "ignore" feature, Michelle I seriously can't find it. While logged in, clicking this will take you the page to manage your ignores. Link The long way is to go up top (top bar where you sign out or in), click your name with the arrow pointed down and in the menu, find the "manage ignore preferences" link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 . The only thing I look forward to in the discussion thread is Cold Rain teleconnection picture posts. Those usually make my day. Thanks man! I'm not at work today or tomorrow, so I won't be able to do another one till Wednesday. I only do those at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Thanks man! I'm not at work today or tomorrow, so I won't be able to do another one till Wednesday. I only do those at work. I'll do a quickie for you: PNA - NAO - AO - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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