December Banter

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I think I'm going to take a month long break. I'll be back on Jan 15th and see where we stand.

[mackerel_sky]

I think I'm going to take a month long break. I'll be back on Jan 15th and see where we stand.

Don't bother, unless you want to come back and see 70s at the 384 hr GFS !

[NCummingWx93]

Where?

In his backyard Saturday morning, after not having gotten to 50 on Friday. It's gonna be a very short duration cold snap, but a cold snap nontheless.

[JoshM]

I'm ready for some 70s and T-Storms on Christmas Eve

 

[J.C.]

Check out the low temps Thursday.

 

[Isopycnic]

Things keep up like this we'll be able to cook christmas cookies out on the sidewalk!

[mackerel_sky]

Warm and dark! Just like I like my soup!

[superjames1992]

In his backyard Saturday morning, after not having gotten to 50 on Friday. It's gonna be a very short duration cold snap, but a cold snap nontheless.

It isn't really a cold snap, though. That's pretty average for this time of year.

[BIG FROSTY]

Never fear WINTER will be here, Mid January!   Then you will be sick of the cold and snow/Ice................... When it finally ends in late March.  

[Jon]

Never fear WINTER will be here, Mid January! Then you will be sick of the cold and snow/Ice................... When it finally ends in late March.

Frosty's here everyone...the FSI (Frosty Sighting Index) correlates with above average snow throughout the SE during JFM if seen during an above average (temps) December.

[BIG FROSTY]

Frosty's here everyone...the FSI (Frosty Sighting Index) correlates with above average snow throughout the SE during JFM if seen during an above average (temps) December.

lol, been to warm for a snowman to be out and about! You been posting some good stuff, I been reading!!!

[Brick Tamland]

I am getting really pumped for the Force Awakens. And this video is amazing. Fallon, The Roots, and cast from the Force Awakens singing music from Star Wars.

 

[mackerel_sky]

#NERDS

[buckeyefan1]

Another beautiful day on tap imby! High of 75 under full sun        I bought this really cool coat rack a couple of months ago......there's still nothing hanging on it     

[Brick Tamland]

Possible severe threat tomorrow.

 

It's beginning to look a lot like spring time. 

[Isopycnic]

On this day five years ago. It snowed

[buckeyefan1]

Let me get this straight, some folks are arguing with packbacker because he's too negative and snowlover because he's too positive?  If we were all middle of the road, this would be a very boring forum.  Both have given solid reasons for the their beliefs.  Carry on, fellas.  I like reading both extremes of what could happen.  Thanks to both for solid background work!

It's called a discussion. wth is there to argue over? So the weenie reference due to stating incorrect facts stated by others is now considered arguing? Seriously? 

[packfan98]

It's called a discussion. wth is there to argue over? So the weenie reference due to stating incorrect facts stated by others is now considered arguing? Seriously? 

My apologies.  I think "argue" was not the word I was looking for.  My definition of "weenie" is one who makes outrages claims without any justification.  I also didn't realize that there were incorrect facts.  I removed my post.  Have a good day (another warm one)!

[buckeyefan1]

Obviously we disagree. I have no personal agenda whatsoever and have been following the weather for quite awhile. I also posted my own FB forecast the first week of November on my weather page based on my own data and research. The evidence I have seen points to a pattern change the first week of January which is why I keep discussing it.

When you have seasonals like the CFS, UK, CANSIPS, and Euro weeklies showing a much better pattern for January typical of El Niño, a trough over the south and ridging out west and over Canada, then one has to consider that as an option. In my winter forecast which I've linked several times I clearly stated my reasoning behind the pattern change based on several analog years and presented the data as such. I have provided data and can provide much more if you want, I'm sticking to my guns on the early January flip.

Last but not least the Euro control does indeed show a big pattern shakeup. I can't post images here but the changes are significant. It builds two massive PNA ridges out west with deep troughs over the east. These last several days before breaking down and then rebuilding. That is a BIG change from what we are seeing currently. It also tanks the EPO off the charts negative and takes the PNA to +3. The evidence and tools we have to use continue to point to an early January flip and I will continue to post what the data shows and why I think this happens. Already the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen. This is another clue which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change and I for one am excited to see it. Last but certainly not least, I believe you can make a point of you disagree without name calling. This is about winter discussion and some have argued for a warm rest of winter without any evidence whatsoever, simply stating that a warm December means winter is over. Suffice to say I believe winter flips early January and that everything is on track.

I'm replying here as not to clutter up the already cluttered up discussion thread   

 

The first bolded: No it doesn't...it points to seasonal 

The second bolded: Let me know how that works out for you

The third bolded: For now those are frontal boundaries because the time period would be for the end of Jan(a month from now) that is NOT significant

The forth bolded: Zonal flow =  warm

The fifth bolded: You simply stating wrong information from what others are saying and taking it as gospel is not a discussion, it's being a Again......zonal flow with a passing front and no blocking the first week of Jan = seasonal temps

 

Way to stick to your guns though

[Bob Chill]

The euro control run shouldn't be available to the public

[Cold Rain]

I would be wary about relying too much on the control.  It's run at a lower resolution from my understanding.  I've heard many discussions over the years about how it shows a LR cold/snowy pattern.  It doesn't always turn out that way.  That said, it's nice that it's showing cold vs. warm, though.

[packbacker]

The euro control run shouldn't be available to the public

 

How about these maps....I like these, it's like going to Disney World.

[Bob Chill]

I would be wary about relying too much on the control.  It's run at a lower resolution from my understanding.  I've heard many discussions over the years about how it shows a LR cold/snowy pattern.  It doesn't always turn out that way.  That said, it's nice that it's showing cold vs. warm, though.

 

The control is just a lower resolution version of the op that initiates with identical initial conditions as the op. IIRC (and please someone correct me if I'm wrong) the value of the control run is to compare it against the op and look for large divergence over the medium term. This indicates the possibility of the op overdoing something because of the higher resolution. Just used as a tool for medium range forecasting. 

 

Once you get past medium term (say 7 days or so), ensembles are king by a mile. Considering the weeklies let the control run go 30 days, error growth becomes exponential pretty quick and has no more reliable value than any single ensemble member. It should never be used as a sensible wx guage in the long range. 

[Bob Chill]

How about these maps....I like these, it's like going to Disney World.

 

Bob Chill rabidly approves this post

[snowlover91]

You are the definition of a weenie. You have been harping on the first week of Jan as a pattern changer for a long time due to what someone else says. You often repeat what you have read on social media as gospel, like the Nino is acting like a Nina......smh. To claim the Euro weeklies are showing a SUBSTANTIAL change in the pattern the first week of Jan is false(above you now stated the 10th, so you are punting).Saying the model is TRYING to build a trough is a far cry from a SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE you stated earlier. If you don't want to be called a weenie, then stop acting like one. A positive contribution to this thread would be stating verbatim what the models are showing without adding any of your personal agenda nonsense.  

 

To elaborate further on the pattern change I will provide my reasoning below for what my initial forecast in November was based off of and why I still believe the early January pattern flip is on track. Data from this site here lists the various El Nino and La Nina years by intensities with a nice graph showing the peaks of each. What I did was take all the years fitting into the "strong El Nino" and above category and use the analog maps for each month of those seasons. I included 1987-88 since it was initially included as a strong El Nino but later reclassified as moderate. The map below indicates a warm December for most with the cooler air centered out west. I also added my predicted storm track which has verified quite nicely for December thus far.

 

Rolling those analog years forward to January and February yields the following results (with my forecast storm tracks included).

January

 

February 

 

It quickly becomes clear from these analog maps that December would be quite warm with a cold January/February to follow. December has verified well so far but to the warm extreme, something no one could foresee exactly how warm it would be. Despite this the analogs have proved to be useful in helping us to understand the overall pattern well in advance.

 

Also used in my forecast was some of the seasonal model output, specifically the CANSIPS model but others like the JMA, UK and Euro weeklies. The CANSIPS run on November 1st accurately depicted the theme of cold west vs warm east with elevated anomalies over Maine for the month of December. This is fairly close to what we have seen although it doesn't depict the extreme anomalies over these areas like we have seen. It still does a good job with the overall pattern and proved useful for the month of December.

 

Here is the November 1st run for the month of December, 2m Temp anomalies.

 

The new run from December 1st for the month of January is favorable also. It shows the coldest anomalies centered over Texas with below normal anomalies throughout the Deep South. 

 

The 500mb pattern it depicts for January is also favorable.

 

A similar theme is shown on other seasonal models. The JMA and UK both show similar patterns for January. The weekly CFS shows a very favorable pattern for January and is now putting out some of the highest 45 day snow totals from all 4 members that I've seen so far. It paints a picture of a snowy January with high totals across parts of NC and the Deep South on several of the members.

 

The 5 day anomaly map shows below average temps across the Deep South beginning January 5-10th and these continue through the end of January.

 

Adding further to this the PV charts from the Euro (which I can't post due to it violating the TOS of WxBell) show decent warming affecting the PV. It doesn't appear to be enough to split it however it very well could be enough to displace the PV by early January. A key to remember is that a split or displaced PV isn't always good, we have seen years where the PV splits or it gets displaced on the other side of the globe and dumps cold air in Siberia or Europe. However the signs do point to warming affecting the PV by late December such that it should at least be displaced/weakened some early January. This is another favorable trend we need to see for a cold January and February.

 

The Euro weeklies show improvement and the control run shows significant improvement. The weeklies move the indices towards neutral which is a nice improvement while the control run tanks the EPO, spikes the PNA several times and drops the AO well into negative territory. It also shows a deep trough lasting several days over the East Coast with a massive PNA ridge out west. This breaks down within a few days but then once again attempts to rebuild at the end of the Euro control. This is a significant change from previous modeling which showed a persistent ridge over the East Coast. We have yet to see a significant PNA ridge like the weeklies showed, and it shows 2 of them occurring between January 1-11th and lasting several days each with a transient warm shot in between (reloading so to speak). This IS a big change from its previous runs which showed much more ridging and warmth across the East Coast.

 

A needed change has also been noted in the GFS/Euro ensembles and even the Canadian ensembles. Where they previously indicated a trough West vs ridge East they now indicate a zonal flow across the US. This is a positive change in the right direction and shows they are also picking up on an early January pattern change. These maps have already been posted on here recently and analyzed by some pro mets and others so I won't repost them, however the changes seen are a step in the right direction and what you would want to see if an early January pattern change is going to occur.

 

I am sticking to the forecast I made in early November and if I'm wrong I'll admit it and examine what happened and how I can better use the tools we have available to make better seasonal forecasts. This is an area where so many variables (PNA, EPO, QBO, solar cycles, PV strength, etc.) can impact the pattern making it hard to forecast general patterns months in advance. However it is also an area I am extremely interested in and when examining the data presented above there is abundant evidence for an early January pattern flip. There just isn't much data indicating a warm January other than the monthly CFS. Many are simply extrapolating the current pattern in December forward into January and saying we will continue to torch. The tools we have available indicate otherwise and that is my basis for consistently saying a cold January with pattern flip occurring the first week. By January 10th I believe we will be locked into a much better pattern which should last through February and give everyone in the south a good 4-6 weeks at seeing some of the white stuff, and hopefully a lot of it    Now if you can provide evidence for a warm January from computer models, analogs or other sources I would love to see it. I have backed my statements and claims up with hard data but am always open to analyze other methods of seasonal/long range forecasting. After all that's what we are here to discuss right?

[buckeyefan1]

To elaborate further on the pattern change I will provide my reasoning below for what my initial forecast in November was based off of and why I still believe the early January pattern flip is on track. Data from this site here lists the various El Nino and La Nina years by intensities with a nice graph showing the peaks of each. What I did was take all the years fitting into the "strong El Nino" and above category and use the analog maps for each month of those seasons. I included 1987-88 since it was initially included as a strong El Nino but later reclassified as moderate. The map below indicates a warm December for most with the cooler air centered out west. I also added my predicted storm track which has verified quite nicely for December thus far.

 

 

Rolling those analog years forward to January and February yields the following results (with my forecast storm tracks included).

January

 

 

February 

 

 

It quickly becomes clear from these analog maps that December would be quite warm with a cold January/February to follow. December has verified well so far but to the warm extreme, something no one could foresee exactly how warm it would be. Despite this the analogs have proved to be useful in helping us to understand the overall pattern well in advance.

 

Also used in my forecast was some of the seasonal model output, specifically the CANSIPS model but others like the JMA, UK and Euro weeklies. The CANSIPS run on November 1st accurately depicted the theme of cold west vs warm east with elevated anomalies over Maine for the month of December. This is fairly close to what we have seen although it doesn't depict the extreme anomalies over these areas like we have seen. It still does a good job with the overall pattern and proved useful for the month of December.

 

Here is the November 1st run for the month of December, 2m Temp anomalies.

 

 

The new run from December 1st for the month of January is favorable also. It shows the coldest anomalies centered over Texas with below normal anomalies throughout the Deep South. 

 

 

The 500mb pattern it depicts for January is also favorable.

 

 

A similar theme is shown on other seasonal models. The JMA and UK both show similar patterns for January. The weekly CFS shows a very favorable pattern for January and is now putting out some of the highest 45 day snow totals from all 4 members that I've seen so far. It paints a picture of a snowy January with high totals across parts of NC and the Deep South on several of the members.

 

The 5 day anomaly map shows below average temps across the Deep South beginning January 5-10th and these continue through the end of January.

 

Adding further to this the PV charts from the Euro (which I can't post due to it violating the TOS of WxBell) show decent warming affecting the PV. It doesn't appear to be enough to split it however it very well could be enough to displace the PV by early January. A key to remember is that a split or displaced PV isn't always good, we have seen years where the PV splits or it gets displaced on the other side of the globe and dumps cold air in Siberia or Europe. However the signs do point to warming affecting the PV by late December such that it should at least be displaced/weakened some early January. This is another favorable trend we need to see for a cold January and February.

 

The Euro weeklies show improvement and the control run shows significant improvement. The weeklies move the indices towards neutral which is a nice improvement while the control run tanks the EPO, spikes the PNA several times and drops the AO well into negative territory. It also shows a deep trough lasting several days over the East Coast with a massive PNA ridge out west. This breaks down within a few days but then once again attempts to rebuild at the end of the Euro control. This is a significant change from previous modeling which showed a persistent ridge over the East Coast. We have yet to see a significant PNA ridge like the weeklies showed, and it shows 2 of them occurring between January 1-11th and lasting several days each with a transient warm shot in between (reloading so to speak). This IS a big change from its previous runs which showed much more ridging and warmth across the East Coast.

 

A needed change has also been noted in the GFS/Euro ensembles and even the Canadian ensembles. Where they previously indicated a trough West vs ridge East they now indicate a zonal flow across the US. This is a positive change in the right direction and shows they are also picking up on an early January pattern change. These maps have already been posted on here recently and analyzed by some pro mets and others so I won't repost them, however the changes seen are a step in the right direction and what you would want to see if an early January pattern change is going to occur.

 

I am sticking to the forecast I made in early November and if I'm wrong I'll admit it and examine what happened and how I can better use the tools we have available to make better seasonal forecasts. This is an area where so many variables (PNA, EPO, QBO, solar cycles, PV strength, etc.) can impact the pattern making it hard to forecast general patterns months in advance. However it is also an area I am extremely interested in and when examining the data presented above there is abundant evidence for an early January pattern flip. There just isn't much data indicating a warm January other than the monthly CFS. Many are simply extrapolating the current pattern in December forward into January and saying we will continue to torch. The tools we have available indicate otherwise and that is my basis for consistently saying a cold January with pattern flip occurring the first week. By January 10th I believe we will be locked into a much better pattern which should last through February and give everyone in the south a good 4-6 weeks at seeing some of the white stuff, and hopefully a lot of it    Now if you can provide evidence for a warm January from computer models, analogs or other sources I would love to see it. I have backed my statements and claims up with hard data but am always open to analyze other methods of seasonal/long range forecasting. After all that's what we are here to discuss right?

Do you even read the discussion in the areas you are posting? If so, then you can see there is no reason for me to provide it again. I'll repeat....let me know how that flip works out for you the first week of Jan as everything just points to zonal after a frontal passage. I'll continue to call you a as long as you keep posting like one. After all.....it is what it is

[LithiaWx]

Michelle is roasting some weenies on the BBQ. Total carnage.

[snowlover91]

I'm replying here as not to clutter up the already cluttered up discussion thread  

 

The first bolded: No it doesn't...it points to seasonal 

The second bolded: Let me know how that works out for you

The third bolded: For now those are frontal boundaries because the time period would be for the end of Jan(a month from now) that is NOT significant

The forth bolded: Zonal flow =  warm

The fifth bolded: You simply stating wrong information from what others are saying and taking it as gospel is not a discussion, it's being a Again......zonal flow with a passing front and no blocking the first week of Jan = seasonal temps

 

Way to stick to your guns though

 

I am not stating wrong information from what others are saying this is my analysis as to why I feel the winter flip for early January is on track. I went to great lengths to show why. The models are indicating a change the first week of January. Long range GFS, GEFS, EPS and others clearly show a pattern change to zonal. This is the first step in a pattern change and a big difference from what we have currently seen. The CFS, as posted in my original post, shows cold anomalies across the south beginning January 5th. It also shows in some members 20"+ of snow across western NC through January. A pattern change is just that, a change of pattern. It doesn't matter if its a change to season, cold or a torch, it is a change from the existing pattern. We are currently in a "torch" pattern so even a "seasonal" one with zonal flow vs ridging East and a trough out west IS a pattern change. 

 

Secondly, I will bring this post back up when we do change to a cold pattern in early January. It's already bookmarked

 

Third, not sure what weekly you are looking at but the Euro weekly on WxBell shows a nice trough January 2-5th then a brief warmup with zonal flow and ridging in central Canada with another shot of colder air showing up January 10-13th as a southern stream system cranks up. Even at the end of the run, D32, there is massive ridging across the central US with a trough right off the East Coast. Again, a much different pattern than what we are currently seeing. 

 

Forth, you built up a false argument by picking my statement about the zonal flow out of context. Not cool. My full quote about the zonal flow was this, "Already the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen. This is another clue which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change and I for one am excited to see it." Notice I clearly said it is a CLUE which reinforces the idea of a coming pattern change. A zonal flow is much different from a trough out West and a ridge over the East, that is a fact. 

 

Lastly, you completely disregarded the information I presented from various models like the CFS, JMA, UK, etc. and instead focused on picking statements apart out of the context they were originally written in. The evidence is indicative of a coming pattern change early January with cold locking in by January 10th. FWIW, the CFS I presented doesn't show "passing cold fronts" and zonal flow. Neither does the UK or JMA. If you want to say these models are wrong thats fine, but they do clearly indicate cold anomalies across the Deep South after January 5th. GEFS/EPS are taking a step this direction with a change to zonal flow instead of ridging in the East and troughing out West. These are signs and clues pointing to the overall pattern change coming and to ignore this data is not a good choice. 

[mackerel_sky]

Do you even read the discussion in the areas you are posting? If so, then you can see there is no reason for me to provide it again. I'll repeat....let me know how that flip works out for you the first week of Jan as everything just points to zonal after a frontal passage. I'll continue to call you a as long as you keep posting like one. After all.....it is what it is

BriercreekWX???

Check that IP address !!?

[snowlover91]

Do you even read the discussion in the areas you are posting? If so, then you can see there is no reason for me to provide it again. I'll repeat....let me know how that flip works out for you the first week of Jan as everything just points to zonal after a frontal passage. I'll continue to call you a as long as you keep posting like one. After all.....it is what it is

 

Certainly. I guess you would call "nflwxman" a weenie too then since he agreed with and confirmed my statement? He stated "As snowlover above does point out, the JMA and Euro weeklies don't look bad after the 1st week of January or so.  The JMA has been very accurate going through the progression of winters the last 5 years and has generally whipped the CFSv2.  Perhaps the Nino has overwhelmed all; but I for one, would be shocked to see the JMA be off by THIS much." 

 

This post here between Bob Chill and a pro met talks about the zonal flow and pattern change indications I referenced on the GEFS/EPS ensembles. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47321-december-medlong-range-disco/?p=3797828

 

Isotherm also posted an in depth discussion about the PV weakening with wave 1 activity by late December and then wave 2 activity beginning early January. He believed the PV would probably be displaced and maybe even split if the warming was strong enough. I can go through the various regional forums and link these discussions for your convenience, many pro mets and seasoned forecasters have pointed out the same things I indicated above.