Stormcatt Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 LOL...I have repeatedly said about 98738492034 times that Feb will be great, how is that gloomy? I should start posting 'don't trust ensembles past day 10' they are always wrong, we have a great chance at a wintery pattern by new years'... It's really not that difficult to see that things will be bad atleast through mid-January. Anything after that is WAG. For the 98738492035 time Feb will be rocking... I was on the Jamming Jam train but that ship has sailed with the strat half asleep still. Even Grit agrees, you saw the w-QBO/nino AO chart calling for AO flip first week of Feb. That's just it as you said the Strat is half asleep. The little warming we will see over the next few weeks is great and all but we need a strong SSW and that's not happening anytime soon. Even with the stretching of the PV and the warming that's showing we still have a very strong PV .Lots of wishcasting going on in hopes of saving seasonal forecasts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Um. I skipped a day of checking the winter thread, and well, Jayne asked it best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Morning report from EURO land: AO is not as bad, but still 2.75 positive on Christmas day. NAO is +1 at Christmas after falling from +2.5. The PNA is in a deep dive at -4 before bouncing on Christmas day to -3. Don't pack up your shorts just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yeah, I think that's his user name now. You can put me on the Legion of Gloom meme. I don't want to leave him out there all by himself. I'd prefer Legion of Reason, but I'll gladly join as we are looking at a repeat of 2012/2013 for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I'd prefer Legion of Reason, but I'll gladly join as we are looking at a repeat of 2012/2013 for my neck of the woods. Honestly so far it feels warmer than Dec 2012 to me. My fuzzy recollection of that winter is cool but not cold, like 50s all winter where I ran around in tshirts and sweaters and never got out even a lightweight coat. But I could just be having a bad memory, I haven't looked back to see the averages that month. So far.. this month has been far too warm to wear a sweater even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Sooooo...what do I do during the Holiday Season when Mother Nature insists flip flop weather continues into the New Year? I turn down the AC, start a fire, turn on all the Christmas lights, fire up the candle's and start making cookies and candy I've spent more years doing this during the winter months than not while living here in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yeah, I think that's his user name now. You can put me on the Legion of Gloom meme. I don't want to leave him out there all by himself. Might as well enroll me into the legion....February is still on the table I guess, but I'm not looking for this pattern to change anytime soon. My term for chasing the SSW....chasing the unicorn. Never helps us out really that I can remember. If we can't get a -EPO/+PNA, we could get blanked this year in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Sooooo...what do I do during the Holiday Season when Mother Nature insists flip flop weather continues into the New Year? I turn down the AC, start a fire, turn on all the Christmas lights, fire up the candle's and start making cookies and candy I've spent more years doing this during the winter months than not while living here in the south We finally gave up and turned the AC back on last week, set low enough to force it to kick on a bit. Not because the house was unbearably warm, but because without any air moving it was getting kind of stuffy and we all have allergies. The nice side effect is that it's chillier in here than outside, so you can fake yourself into thinking it's winter and sleep under a blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 We finally gave up and turned the AC back on last week, set low enough to force it to kick on a bit. Not because the house was unbearably warm, but because without any air moving it was getting kind of stuffy and we all have allergies. The nice side effect is that it's chillier in here than outside, so you can fake yourself into thinking it's winter and sleep under a blanket. I do the same It's like the best of both worlds in this "hostile environment" I'm actually enjoying this weather by doing things I didn't have a chance to do back in the fall. With all of the flooding I couldn't go hiking along my favorite trails, but now the water is receding just a touch and 65-70 degrees with a slight breeze is just too good to pass up...lol. Maybe it's just the fact I'm going into this winter knowing it will be warm and wet, so I'm not disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Honestly so far it feels warmer than Dec 2012 to me. My fuzzy recollection of that winter is cool but not cold, like 50s all winter where I ran around in tshirts and sweaters and never got out even a lightweight coat. But I could just be having a bad memory, I haven't looked back to see the averages that month. So far.. this month has been far too warm to wear a sweater even. Yeah, it was cool, not cold and the 9th warmest winter in Atlanta since record keeping began. There was a winter before that, 2007/2008 maybe? that was horrible. 75 degrees in the middle of January and there wasn't even a chance of cold weather..not sure what winter that was..but it was really bad. I don't think this one will be that bad but, cool not cold and definitely no long term cold hanging around. I think the eastern half of the country will not have a "winter" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I had a gut feeling there could be some severe weather around Christmas a few months ago reading around. Now it looks like there could be a possibility of something substantial as you head Westward. Not quite sure how much it would end up affecting us severe wise this far out though. On a side note, I'll take my chances with a potential 73' snow storm again. Larry has been posting some great data and If I remember correctly, it had a +NAO and a warm December leading up. Lets not forget about the major ice storm for some earlier in the new year of 73' too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I'm still here. I'm lurking this year. The weather has been a huge torch. No need to chime in. There are some very optimistic posters in there and all me posting in there will do is stir up a hornets nest of angry winter wx weenies who are living in their own delusions about an upcoming pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 probably another 3-4 weeks before we even get our first fantasy storm to give us hope. painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Well, if it's not going to snow, it might as well be warm and sunny. Rather have that than cold and no snow or rain anytime. Hopefully, things will change as we head into January in regards to having a chance at some winter weather. Waiting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 594 dm ridge center just off the SE coast on 12/24 on the Euro. Bermuda High in December sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I cranked my air on last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Now that there is literally no chance in December for any cold...I'm hoping for an 80 degree day, just to see a record fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 It just gets better everyday doesn't it. Anyone of you young lads on this board ever hear the phrase mod to strong El nino muttered in the future let this season be a lesson. I got my schooling in 97/98. Anyway we need to cash in on El nino rains cause the big fat bermuda pig ridge is just warming up for this LA Nina summer that's inbound on the heels of our super El nino. Well be begging for rain by mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 It just gets better everyday doesn't it. Anyone of you young lads on this board ever hear the phrase mod to strong El nino muttered in the future let this season be a lesson. I got my schooling in 97/98. Anyway we need to cash in on El nino rains cause the big fat bermuda pig ridge is just warming up for this LA Nina summer that's inbound on the heels of our super El nino. Well be begging for rain by mid summer. We are in a La Nina summer right now, that's what it feels like! Who knew super nino meant summer nina..... Here's to some neutral enso's sometime in near future, the +PDO/Nino has worn it's welcome out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 It just gets better everyday doesn't it. Anyone of you young lads on this board ever hear the phrase mod to strong El nino muttered in the future let this season be a lesson. I got my schooling in 97/98. Anyway we need to cash in on El nino rains cause the big fat bermuda pig ridge is just warming up for this LA Nina summer that's inbound on the heels of our super El nino. Well be begging for rain by mid summer.Shetley? Did you change names too??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 When looking at the modern era nino's it's not pretty, probably should have guessed it would be like this. Of the previous 8 nino's we have had 5 below average for snowfall and 3 right at average, this is for RDU, I am sure other locations are different. 2015 (???) 2014 (+AO DJF, avg snowfall) 2010 (- AO DJF, avg snowfall) 2007 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 2005 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 2003 (-AO DJF, avg snowfall) 1998 (-AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 1995 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 1992 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 When looking at the modern era nino's it's not pretty, probably should have guessed it would be like this. Of the previous 8 nino's we have had 5 below average for snowfall and 3 right at average, this is for RDU, I am sure other locations are different. 2015 (???) 2014 (+AO DJF, avg snowfall) 2010 (- AO DJF, avg snowfall) 2007 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 2005 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 2003 (-AO DJF, avg snowfall) 1998 (-AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 1995 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) 1992 (+AO DJF, below avg snowfall) Strongest of ninos , actually have above normal snowfall, more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Now that there is literally no chance in December for any cold...I'm hoping for an 80 degree day, just to see a record fall. It's going to be in the 20s this weekend. That's pretty cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 What an absolute and unmitigated disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 It's going to be in the 20s this weekend. That's pretty cold to me. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Strongest of ninos , actually have above normal snowfall, more times than not. Yep, top strongest nino's...the 7 snowiest avg over 10" and the 3 clunkers. What wins, modern era or strongest climo... 1998 - 2.5" 1983 - 11.8" 1889 - 12.2" 1973 - 11.3" 1903 - 0 1897 - 9.3" 1941 - 0 1966 - 12.3" 1958 - 7.9" 1988 - 7.9" Just to add onto it...snow v/s non-snow ninos Dec composites.... \\\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Where? In his freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Heck, maybe we can get an early start to the severe weather season if there isnt gonna be a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 What an absolute and unmitigated disaster.Like Turd Ferguson bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Where? In Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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