Winter Banter

[Runman292]

If it is good, we will have them here for you tonight.

Thanks, Carver. I get paid on Friday, so hopefully I'll be able to get the Euro again then.

[John1122]

What time does it roll, like 1:00 AM?

It'll start around then, probably be 1:15 or so before it gets to the timeframe we're looking at.

[Runman292]

John, are you staying up for the EPS?

[John1122]

I'll most likely be up then. My dog is outside chasing deer back and forth across the ridge behind my house. I couldn't sleep if I wanted to until he gets tired.

[Runman292]

I'll most likely be up then. My dog is outside chasing deer back and forth across the ridge behind my house. I couldn't sleep if I wanted to until he gets tired.

Lol.

[Jed33]

The GFS pretty much got schooled by the lowly NAM on yesterday's vort in middle and to some extent SE TN haha. When was the last time the GFS was NAM'd?

[jaxjagman]

The GFS pretty much got schooled by the lowly NAM on yesterday's vort in middle and to some extent SE TN haha. When was the last time the GFS was NAM'd?

The NAM smoked every model,noticed the same thing

[Stovepipe]

We lost the DGEX the past two runs, hopefully the extrapolated NAM isn't onto something for Monday.

[Vol4Life]

Stove, what did the DGEX show? Did it lose the storm completely or was it way NW and warm?

[Stovepipe]

Stove, what did the DGEX show? Did it lose the storm completely or was it way NW and warm?

 

Honestly I just glanced briefly at it's snow maps and they had a smattering of crap amounts.  Couldn't be bothered to step through the runs.

[Stovepipe]

I see Snowdog (ben4vols) lurking.  Hey snowdog, jmundie said 0z trended wetter!!

[John1122]

This Valentines day time frame seems to often have a winter storm brewing on or around it. One of the big ones of my youth finished up this day in 1985. 14.5 inches. Rain switched to snow, wet at first, then it snowed with temps in the 20s. Two day storm. 8 inches one day and 6.5 the next.

[Stovepipe]

Euro rolling

 

[Runman292]

Anyone staying up for the EPS?

[Jed33]

This is El Niño, right??? So far, we have received roughly 95% of our snow from Northern stream clippers and NW Flow events, lol. Today brings me up to 12.75in for the year, and the only amount of that that came from a southern stream, if it could be called that is the inch that came at night during the weekend storm. The next day it was 3in of NW flow set up with a heavy band rotating down out of KY. Wouldn't it be funny if we don't get any more southern stream snow in this strong El Niño

[Carvers Gap]

This is El Niño, right??? So far, we have received roughly 95% of our snow from Northern stream clippers and NW Flow events, lol. Today brings me up to 12.75in for the year, and the only amount of that that came from a southern stream, if it could be called that is the inch that came at night during the weekend storm. The next day it was 3in of NW flow set up with a heavy band rotating down out of KY. Wouldn't it be funny if we don't get any more southern stream snow in this strong El Niño

You know, I had some similar thoughts. I really did not like the winters in the 90s as I have said before, excluding 93'and 95-96. Here is what I am now arriving at...the winters in the 90s featured massive solar activity. The sun is weaker right now. I think that is a big difference. That and the oceans are different in terms of temps.

[tnweathernut]

As much as I disliked the 90's as a whole for winter weather, I witnessed three of the largest snows of my lifetime in the 90's in Johnson City. 93, 96, and 98

[Stovepipe]

When I retire, I'd like to move to one of those good upslope/NW flow areas in Tennessee.  Ideally one that still has a decent growing season.  Or Colorado heh.

[Jed33]

Carvers, do you think the weaker sun is what has spared us from blanking out this winter? I think it plays a big part. I know without the SSW, we probably would have been a lot warmer, for sure. It has helped to mute the El Niño and MJO from what I have been reading. Still, it's rather odd that our snow has been mostly northern stream driven in an El Niño year.

[Stovepipe]

NAM is rolling.

 

[Jed33]

I hear ya Stove, the wheels are always turning in my head about how I could get more elevation. I've looked at the smokies, and even at the plateau and clinch mtn. Clinch isn't as high as I'd like to be though. Would love to live above 2500ft around here, but it's hard to find something like that for sure. Colorado is nice-I love the skiing there, but it's too far away from family. Maybe someday I'll have a place to run up to for the NW flow. One can dream right

[John1122]

When I looked back on Nino climatology it pretty much showed that strong Ninos were likely to be somewhat snowy. There were just a couple in the 90s that didn't work out. It may have been solar activity or some other factors. Overall the 90s featured extreme cold and huge snows that were typical of the 60s, 70s and 80s. Those mostly disappeared in the 2000s. So far the 2010s have returned to snowy and very cold winters.

It was so tough in the 2000s that 4 of the 5 winters that didn't feature digit snows for the season at my house since 1970 have occurred since 2000. The other was 1991-92.

[Carvers Gap]

When I looked back on Nino climatology it pretty much showed that strong Ninos were likely to be somewhat snowy. There were just a couple in the 90s that didn't work out. It may have been solar activity or some other factors. Overall the 90s featured extreme cold and huge snows that were typical of the 60s, 70s and 80s. Those mostly disappeared in the 2000s. So far the 2010s have returned to snowy and very cold winters.

It was so tough in the 2000s that 4 of the 5 winters that didn't feature digit snows for the season at my house since 1970 have occurred since 2000. The other was 1991-92.

I am thinking many of the 90s winters were warm in Knoxville. Maybe one or two winters were cold. Was a very warm decade. I lived there for most of it. From 90-94...we had very little snow minus the the big one. 95-96 was good. But I would not characterize many as extreme cold or snow...and definitely not similar to the 70s. Lived there as well during the entire decade of disco.

[PowellVolz]

I hear ya Stove, the wheels are always turning in my head about how I could get more elevation. I've looked at the smokies, and even at the plateau and clinch mtn. Clinch isn't as high as I'd like to be though. Would love to live above 2500ft around here, but it's hard to find something like that for sure. Colorado is nice-I love the skiing there, but it's too far away from family. Maybe someday I'll have a place to run up to for the NW flow. One can dream right

Wears Valley?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[John1122]

I am thinking many of the 90s winters were warm in Knoxville. Maybe one or two winters were cold. Was a very warm decade. I lived there for most of it. From 90-94...we had very little snow minus the the big one. 95-96 was good. But I would not characterize many as extreme cold or snow...and definitely not similar to the 70s. Lived there as well during the entire decade of disco.

93-94 was snowy and cold. During the 94 Winter Olympics there was snow and subzero cold around for a lot of that period. 94-95 was pretty snowy too if I remember correctly. Of course 95-96 was one of the all time great winters. 96 had the two big January events and the major event in February. That one was bigger in North Knox and places in the central valley that the blizzard of 1993. I was working with a fellow from Luttrell at the time and he had 25 inches. There weren't any real big or extreme events in the 2000-2009ish winters.

[Carvers Gap]

93-94 was snowy and cold. During the 94 Winter Olympics there was snow and subzero cold around for a lot of that period. 94-95 was pretty snowy too if I remember correctly. Of course 95-96 was one of the all time great winters. 96 had the two big January events and the major event in February. That one was bigger in North Knox and places in the central valley that the blizzard of 1993. I was working with a fellow from Luttrell at the time and he had 25 inches. There weren't any real big or extreme events in the 2000-2009ish winters.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/40/USW00013891/tavg/1/1/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

(edit:  Now it has DJF...was just J)

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

When I looked back on Nino climatology it pretty much showed that strong Ninos were likely to be somewhat snowy. There were just a couple in the 90s that didn't work out. It may have been solar activity or some other factors. Overall the 90s featured extreme cold and huge snows that were typical of the 60s, 70s and 80s. Those mostly disappeared in the 2000s. So far the 2010s have returned to snowy and very cold winters.

It was so tough in the 2000s that 4 of the 5 winters that didn't feature digit snows for the season at my house since 1970 have occurred since 2000. The other was 1991-92.

 

The 90s do not compare to the 60s and 70s in terms of snow or temps...It was a bad decade minus a couple of great winters.  I won't disagree that the early 2000s were bad either, but the 90s(minus two good winters) featured very little snow compared to other great decades.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/40/USW00013891/tavg/3/2/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

[1234snow]

The 90s do not compare to the 60s and 70s in terms of snow or temps...It was a bad decade minus a couple of great winters. I won't disagree that the early 2000s were bad either, but the 90s(minus two good winters) featured very little snow compared to other great decades.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/40/USW00013891/tavg/3/2/1895-2016?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

knoxvillesnowclimo.JPG

Carvers that is just amazing how much 1960 sticks out like a sore thumb! It is 15 inches above the next closest winter. I wonder what the standard deviation would be on that one. I think that the average for KTRI is around 12 inches or so? I was born in 92 so I can't help yall out on those observations, lol.

I have 7 inches of snow from southern stream systems and 5 1/2 from clippers.

[Carvers Gap]

Carvers that is just amazing how much 1960 sticks out like a sore thumb! It is 15 inches above the next closest winter. I wonder what the standard deviation would be on that one. I think that the average for KTRI is around 12 inches or so? I was born in 92 so I can't help yall out on those observations, lol.

I have 7 inches of snow from southern stream systems and 5 1/2 from clippers.

 

The 60s and 70s (I was born in 1970...) were just incredible years for Knoxville in terms of winter.  I moved from Knoxville in1980 and bounced around to several places before coming back to UT in '89.  It snowed so much in the 70s, I grew to expect winters to be like that every year.  To this day, I still used those winters as my benchmark.  If I didn't have snow by January, I considered it a bad winter.  Now, I just want snow in any month...not by a particular time.  Most of the winters in the 90s (minus those big winters or the 93 storm) were nickel and dime events in Knoxville. 

[Stovepipe]

The 60s and 70s (I was born in 1970...) were just incredible years for Knoxville in terms of winter.  I moved from Knoxville in1980 and bounced around to several places before coming back to UT in '89.  It snowed so much in the 70s, I grew to expect winters to be like that every year.  To this day, I still used those winters as my benchmark.  If I didn't have snow by January, I considered it a bad winter.  Now, I just want snow in any month...not by a particular time.  Most of the winters in the 90s (minus those big winters or the 93 storm) were nickel and dime events in Knoxville. 

 

I moved to Knoxville in 94 as a UT freshman barely missing the 93 insanity.  Sooo wish I could have experienced that.