jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 funny pic ewwwww Google Search.png Yeah, wonder how much Mjo is factored in.? I bet quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'm rarely even paying much attention to models beyond day 10. I pretty much entirely discount the weeklies. Especially in changing patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don't think the weeklies are all that horrid now like Carver mentioned in the winter thread after looking at the 5 and 85's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I got a question. How good is the meteorologist at wxsouth? I'm thinking about getting a subscription to the site, but I'm not sure what the person's track record is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 12z Gfs providing a good lesson in the power of the MJO. The concerns mentioned above appear to be bearing some fruit on the afternoon GFS. Again, a cautious approach should be taken w Feb to echo Jeff who spotted the pitfall first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I've still got about 2 inches of snow on the ground. But I don't think it'll survive the next few days of warmth and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I got a question. How good is the meteorologist at wxsouth? I'm thinking about getting a subscription to the site, but I'm not sure what the person's track record is. Robert is an excellent met....puts a lot of effort and time into forecasts for the south and you can't find that anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 A really great view in CC from Sunday morning, taken by my friend Dwane from his back yard. I'll put up East Tennessee and it's views with any place in the country. Agreed. East Tennessee is one of the most varied geographical areas in the east with the plateau, then the ridge/valley area eastward from there, and of course the mountains. It's one of the big reasons I moved here. So much to see, and all within a day's drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I got a question. How good is the meteorologist at wxsouth? I'm thinking about getting a subscription to the site, but I'm not sure what the person's track record is. Agree with Mr. Bob and he is not that Robert, lol. Anyway WxSouth Robert is a solid met and explains things in great detail. Robert makes it understandable without sacrificing the science. Subscription page gets into even more detail than his posts anywhere. Make it a Small Business Day and try a subscription! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Agree with Mr. Bob and he is not that Robert, lol. Anyway WxSouth Robert is a solid met and explains things in great detail. Robert makes it understandable without sacrificing the science. Subscription page gets into even more detail than his posts anywhere. Make it a Small Business Day and try a subscription! I'll try it out. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'll try it out. Thanks. I think you will like it. Regarding the severe threat East Tenn. I agree it may just be good sleeping weather overnight, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I think you will like it. Regarding the severe threat East Tenn. I agree it may just be good sleeping weather overnight, lol! I'm a severe weather person. If I wasn't in bad financial shape, I would be storm chasing. Unfortunately, I'm a weather spotter living in East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 That's OK tomorrow will feel like the Great Plains with the warm south wind. I may just have to stick my face in the wind like a dog out the car window, lol. Storms or not, it'll feel like home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man, we're closing out strong on signing day. Just picked up Kongbo. Pretty happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man, we're closing out strong on signing day. Just picked up Kongbo. Pretty happy with that. Butch closing like Bobby Bowden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That's OK tomorrow will feel like the Great Plains with the warm south wind. I may just have to stick my face in the wind like a dog out the car window, lol. Storms or not, it'll feel like home! Jeff, I got another question. Do you see an active Severe weather pattern this spring, or is it too early to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Top priority of the winter: build one of these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Even thought the 18z GFS didn't show as much for us with the snow showers, it dropped the fantasy bomb all over the south later on. Of course it was gone on the 00z, but models are always all over the place and with the major arctic invasion likely coming, you never know when a storm will catch the arctic air in place and dump on you. Unlikely to happen but pretty to imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is the anniversary of one of the great snow events ever for me. In 1998 a dynamically driven monster snow event hit the Plateau and crushed Campbell, Scott and Fentress County. 8-24 inches fell. Not sure why, but in their official blurb MRX says 6-12 fell in the higher elevations of the Plateau. I had 16 inches myself and that was on the lower end in my area. It was one of 3 15+ inch snows that fell here in a 5 year period between 1993-1998. Not sure why MRX down plays the amounts so greatly. The power outages and snow totals were widely reported and recorded by news outlets. This like this are why the snow averages have fallen so greatly in the last 20 years. Not, imo, that it magically snows a whole lot less over the course of a decade or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 This is the anniversary of one of the great snow events ever for me. In 1998 a dynamically driven monster snow event hit the Plateau and crushed Campbell, Scott and Fentress County. 8-24 inches fell. Not sure why, but in their official blurb MRX says 6-12 fell in the higher elevations of the Plateau. I had 16 inches myself and that was on the lower end in my area. It was one of 3 15+ inch snows that fell here in a 5 year period between 1993-1998. Not sure why MRX down plays the amounts so greatly. The power outages and snow totals were widely reported and recorded by news outlets. This like this are why the snow averages have fallen so greatly in the last 20 years. Not, imo, that it magically snows a whole lot less over the course of a decade or two. I believe a week before that one, a bowling ball struck the southern apps providing a VERY heavy snowfall. We had 24-36 inches in Johnson City, though I think there was a considerable amount less in Kingsport and other parts of the Tricities. It was sunny and 54 in Nashville at the time of this one. I remember having a conversation with my mother and her laughing at me thinking I was kidding that it had been snowing 3-4 inches an hour for several hours and her telling me it got to the mid 50's in Nashville and was sunny. Crazy storm and the heaviest snow I have ever witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I believe a week before that one, a bowling ball struck the southern apps providing a VERY heavy snowfall. We had 24-36 inches in Johnson City, though I think there was a considerable amount less in Kingsport and other parts of the Tricities. It was sunny and 54 in Nashville at the time of this one. I remember having a conversation with my mother and her laughing at me thinking I was kidding that it had been snowing 3-4 inches an hour for several hours and her telling me it got to the mid 50's in Nashville and was sunny. Crazy storm and the heaviest snow I have ever witnessed. I remember that quite well. I was very jealous at the time, not knowing my own crusher was coming a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Even thought the 18z GFS didn't show as much for us with the snow showers, it dropped the fantasy bomb all over the south later on. Of course it was gone on the 00z, but models are always all over the place and with the major arctic invasion likely coming, you never know when a storm will catch the arctic air in place and dump on you. Unlikely to happen but pretty to imagine. Ha ha, we can only hope! My heart skipped a beat or three at this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Jeff, I got another question. Do you see an active Severe weather pattern this spring, or is it too early to tell? It may be too early but of course I'm going to try. Southern stream has been active and mostly warm when active. Even when it was snow, the systems were enhanced by baroclinicity or temperature contrasts. We do have the occasional north to south exception, one coming up next week, but it is not sustained like February 2014 or 2015. The west to east moving baroclinic systems are favored, which would favor some severe. Warm late February could bring March madness. Can't promise East Tennessee; it could be farther west. I call them Mid South Maulers, just like on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I believe a week before that one, a bowling ball struck the southern apps providing a VERY heavy snowfall. We had 24-36 inches in Johnson City, though I think there was a considerable amount less in Kingsport and other parts of the Tricities. It was sunny and 54 in Nashville at the time of this one. I remember having a conversation with my mother and her laughing at me thinking I was kidding that it had been snowing 3-4 inches an hour for several hours and her telling me it got to the mid 50's in Nashville and was sunny. Crazy storm and the heaviest snow I have ever witnessed. For those that are new to the board(tnweathernut and I rehash this quite often because it is a great story) I had like two inches of snow... for that event. No kidding! I only live twenty miles from JC. A guy at work called-in from JC, and said he wouldn't be able to make it. Said he couldn't get out of his driveway. We all laughed, figuring he was just taking a discretionary day. Our snow was gone by mid-day. He didn't come in for like an entire week. Turns out, he was without power and had significant damage to his neighborhood w/ trees down. He couldn't even get out of his driveway. Johnson City got absolutely hammered, just plastered. Finally, being in the snow goose that I am...I drive over there after hearing of the mayhem. It was shocking. Within two interstate exits, went from no snow to 2-3'. Crazy. Was like I would imagine lake effect snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It may be too early but of course I'm going to try. Southern stream has been active and mostly warm when active. Even when it was snow, the systems were enhanced by baroclinicity or temperature contrasts. We do have the occasional north to south exception, one coming up next week, but it is not sustained like February 2014 or 2015. The west to east moving baroclinic systems are favored, which would favor some severe. Warm late February could bring March madness. Can't promise East Tennessee; it could be farther west. I call them Mid South Maulers, just like on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorm outbreaks in East Tennessee occur just as often as a blue moon. We can never get the favorable instability AND the wind shear at the same time it seems to me. 95% of the time, it's one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It was absolute madness and completely missed by forecasters MORE THAN ONCE throughout the day. Original forecast was for light rain/snow mix and a high of 37, no accumulation. Mid to late morning we started seeing half dollar size flakes. After an inch was on the ground, the NWS issued a WWA for our area for 1-3 inches. It changed to rain and the inch+ melted pretty quickly, causing them to cancel the WWA. Around mid afternoon, a heavier burst of precipitation changed us back to half dollar heavy snow. Within 30 minutes we had almost 2 inches. I was in a business class at ETSU that began at 3:50. A winter weather advisory for 1-3 was reissued (yes after 2 inches) and surprisingly ETSU cancelled night classes. Unfortunately, 3:50 wasn't a night class and our teacher refused to let us go for another hour. After another hour of moderate to heavy snow as we all watched this unfold from our classroom, the teacher FINALLY let us go. (there was around 3.5 inches at this time). It took me 45 minutes to get across town to my townhouse. By the time I got there, we had over 4.5 inches and snowing so heavily I could hardly see across my street. Over the next hour another 2-3 inches fell. The 6PM news came on and Mark Reynolds was on. He opened the segment by saying he wouldn't be surprised if we got 4 inches from the storm (we already had 6-7 on the ground in north JC). When he gave his normal weather report at 6:15 we had 7+ inches on the ground and he mentioned some lucky ones MIGHT get up to 6 or 7 inches. Right after he said that, the power went out. It snowed 3-4 inches an hour for 5-6 hours and there were transformers popping all over town. We had around 26 inches at my townhouse (after settling) the next morning, but the south end of town saw 34-36 in spots. Out of 55,000+ in town, 50,000 lost power. Just a crazy storm to witness! Oh yeah, the teacher that wouldn't let us go wrecked her Camero in the snow and after sliding off the road had to walk the remaining 1.2 miles to her home... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That storm was amazing. At Bulls Gap near Exit 23 on I-81, nothing on the ground, 5 miles west of that in Mosheim...a foot of snow. Was incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 That storm was amazing. At Bulls Gap near Exit 23 on I-81, nothing on the ground, 5 miles west of that in Mosheim...a foot of snow. Was incredible Seriously though, that storm sounds incredible! I would have been a senior in college on UT campus at the time and don't remember jack squat from that one. Pretty sure we didn't get anything significant but to be fair those were hazy times in Fort Sanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This is the anniversary of one of the great snow events ever for me. In 1998 a dynamically driven monster snow event hit the Plateau and crushed Campbell, Scott and Fentress County. 8-24 inches fell. Not sure why, but in their official blurb MRX says 6-12 fell in the higher elevations of the Plateau. I had 16 inches myself and that was on the lower end in my area. It was one of 3 15+ inch snows that fell here in a 5 year period between 1993-1998. Not sure why MRX down plays the amounts so greatly. The power outages and snow totals were widely reported and recorded by news outlets. This like this are why the snow averages have fallen so greatly in the last 20 years. Not, imo, that it magically snows a whole lot less over the course of a decade or two. I lived in Southeast KY at the time. We, also, were crushed by this one. The pine forests around the area were as damaged by any ice storm I had ever seen in that area, since the snow fell at a temperature of 32-33 the whole time. It was the heaviest snow--as far as actual weight--I remember seeing up to that point. It stuck to everything, including the power lines. 12-15" fell, and that much heavy, wet snow is more than the average Virginia or Shortleaf Pine can handle. I remember driving around Laurel Lake two days after, and it looked as if a hurricane had come through. There were hundreds of pine trees laying near or across the road. Most had been cut so traffic could pass, but the damage was widespread and many areas were impassable. I won't soon forget the level of destruction that was caused by this powerful winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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