Mountain West Discussion

[mattskiva]

A mammoth 2.8" since things began at 9 AM today here, thanks to various sources of downsloping during the day- S winds, then NW from a strong Denver cyclone. Hopefully things will keep going. Storm total 3.3" so far, not including Saturday.

 

Just took three measurements, averaged 11" here at 7990ft just outside Estes Park.  Not including compaction since the storm started last night.  No snowboard here since it's not my normal home location and I'm on vacation

[Chinook]

I think I have about 9". I measured 8" at 7:15 and cleared off the front walkway- now there is 1" on that. The heavy upslope snow band is hitting west of I-25 now, and has been for a couple of hours.

[mattskiva]

I think I have about 9". I measured 8" at 7:15 and cleared off the front walkway- now there is 1" on that. The heavy upslope snow band is hitting west of I-25 now, and has been for a couple of hours.

 

Yeah.  My educated guess, based on the measurements when I've shoveled and the areas with less compaction, is about 16" total has fallen here.

[Chinook]

The 00z NAM has 6-10" for Larimer County up to tomorrow afternoon. Of course, 00z was 5:00PM and it has been 4 hours since then. At my house, I have gotten 2" since 5:00. Hmm. 9+(6-2)"=13". I wonder if I could hit 12" by tomorrow afternoon. In the bigger picture, Burlington CO, Goodland KS, and out towards Lincoln NE should get 12-16" totals, It has been snowing at Burlington and Goodland for some time now. That is a pretty big hit for the mid-plains. NWS Boulder tweet "Observer in Sterling reporting 8.5" of snow w/ east winds at 30 mph & drifts of 3 to 4 feet. Reports of road closures near Sterling."

 

NWS Goodland tweet "Road Conditions Deteriorating! I-70 E & W lanes closed from Denver to CO/KS state line."

 

Wyoming DOT

" @WYDOT_Southeast: I-80 WESTBOUND between Laramie and Rawlins is projected to be closed for an extended period of time. #wyoroad"

 

Colorado DOT

"Closed US US 24 both directions #COSprings to Limon (MM 311 to 376) b/c blowing & drifting snow,whiteout conditions"

 

near Fort Collins:

"US 287 closed from Teds Place to WY state border b/c white out conditions"

[Chinook]

I have gotten mounds of snow since 7:15PM. I measured 11-12" in the front yards of the neighbors here

 

[PennMan]

Hard to get an accurate measurement out there, but somewhere around 11-12" in Thornton. Fun drive to Broomfield and back earlier.

[Chinook]

I reported 15.3" to the NWS

 

[ValpoVike]

15.1" here just outside the park entrance.

[mayjawintastawm]

We got into the great band overnight and picked up an additional 6.0" of fluff between 9 PM and 6 AM, total 9.3", then I had to go to work but guessing another 1-1.5" since then. Just about stopped now. So total will be 10.5-11". I think most places got more- we played catchup for most of the storm.

[Chinook]

This has been the snowiest period here since 2013

 

Apr 15-17, 2013. Fort Collins had 22.4". It was really kind of three storms, but one upper low. It was kind of complicated

May 1, 2013. Fort Collins had 12.8"

[Chinook]

some pictures. Pic #6 is at the same location as pic #1 (big spruce tree). Pic #2 -- It's Christmas in February!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chinook]

loops of radar, surface analysis, 500mb vorticity

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/colorado_storm_of_2016_radar_loop.html

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/colorado_storm_of_2016_surface_loop.html

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/colorado_storm_of_2016_500mb_loop.html

[Chinook]

Number of days of 1" snow cover or better

Nov. 26 27 28 29 30, Dec 1 and 2
December 12-31
January 1-28
February 1-5

48 straight days from Dec 12 to Jan 28, 7 straight days in Nov.-Dec., and 5 straight days in February

[Chinook]

Mercurial, is Glacier National Park near you? local storm report from Glacier National Park today:

98 MPH PEAK GUST AT LOGAN PASS VISITORS CENTER.

[Mercurial]

Yep Logan Pass is about 40 miles east of here.  Not surprised to hear the wind report -- it was rather windy even down here in the valleys west of the divide.

[Mercurial]

Looks like we're stuck in never-ending ridge and torch mode up here... looks like it flattens out a bit this weekend at least.

 

I can't remember the last time we had a good february in Montana.  Granted, I spent the last three of them in California.  We just suck at February in general.

[Chinook]

So, do the people like the Broncos up in Montana?

 

1315z visible satellite image of western Atlantic low (blizzard warning- New England). It is apparently some version of a warm-seclusion (rather than cold-occlusion)

 

[Chinook]

If the CFSv2 is remotely accurate, March/April may be a wild ride at the Front Range. It will seem like Spring this week, but if we get above normal precip in March, it is likely to be snow.

 

 

[raindancewx]

If the CFSv2 is remotely accurate, March/April may be a wild ride at the Front Range. It will seem like Spring this week, but if we get above normal precip in March, it is likely to be snow.

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure Accuweather.com is just a print out of the CFS v2 in the long range...and it's been showing Albuquerque at 1.5" - 1.7" precip for March. That's >3x normal, and it only goes three weeks into March. 

 

The six strongest El Ninos (>1.5 ONI in DJF since 1931) are statistically NOT the same as the others in NM and most of the SW. They are wetter than average - all of them - some by huge amounts. Spring is heavily favored to be wet in El Ninos out here too - really for all of the Rockies. The El Nino precipitation signal for NM is vastly stronger in Spring than Winter - El Ninos are statistically different from non-El Ninos for wetness in Spring, but not so for winter. I've always liked this Spring. MJO looks like it is trying to make a run at phase one for most of early March too - that's a cold/wet phase for the West in March.

[raindancewx]

 

[Chinook]

The CFS may be predicting too much of an Aleutian low for March. (too low at 500mb in the eastern Pacific.) This may be correlate to over-predicting precip in the West for March.

[raindancewx]

It probably is overdone - it has Albuquerque in at least a top five March for wetness if the Accuweather figures are the CFS v2. It shows Denver at 3.6" precip for March on there too.

 

I'd settle for 0.8" or something though. In Albuquerque, you tend to see big time spikes after the low Marches too in El Nino years.

 

 

I think we're also due to have a gain in moisture here from the last El Nino, just based on the pattern pre 1997 - it's weird seeing drops from March 98 to March 03 to March 05 to March 07 to March 10 to March 15 -most of those years were wet Springs overall. The six driest El Nino Marches, excluding March 2015 had average precip of 0.16". The six El Ninos that followed those dry-March El Ninos averaged 1.05" rain, and that's including March 1966...which had no precip at all in the years after dry El Ninos.

[Roger Smith]

Worth noting that North Bend OR had a record high of 82 on Monday 8th, former record was 69 (1963). I would not be surprised if this was a new monthly record for both the location and the state of Oregon. Generally around 60 in Puget Sound and low 60s in the Willamette valley but some other readings above 70 in coastal regions.

[mayjawintastawm]

So, do the people like the Broncos up in Montana?

 

1315z visible satellite image of western Atlantic low (blizzard warning- New England). It is apparently some version of a warm-seclusion (rather than cold-occlusion)

 

Looks like they "missed it by that much", to quote Maxwell Smart. Was a light to moderate snowfall for most landlubbers, though the Cape and Islands got a fairly decent storm. That satellite looks a little like some memorable blizzards of the past, except the center is about 150 miles too far SE to really rock things. Still, a large storm- "feeder bands" all the way to the Bahamas! The low-topped convection over the Gulf Stream near the center, surrounded by a dry "moat", is interesting.

 

Re: Broncos- I saw a "go Broncos" on a picture of a sign at a church in Providence RI of all places!

[Chinook]

Worth noting that North Bend OR had a record high of 82 on Monday 8th, former record was 69 (1963). I would not be surprised if this was a new monthly record for both the location and the state of Oregon. Generally around 60 in Puget Sound and low 60s in the Willamette valley but some other readings above 70 in coastal regions.

I noticed that Tillamook OR was above 70 yesterday and Salem OR broke a record high at 65. I didn't check if any records were broken in Seattle CWA.

[Chinook]

Raindance,

I am wondering if there were any dominating features during the summer after a strong El Nino. I am thinking it may be warm in the Central and East this summer. This year's El Nino will transition to neutral or perhaps even into strong La Nina next winter. I am wondering if Summer 1998, 1942, and maybe 1983, 1973 might be reasonable analogs. It appears that the negative SOI (El Nino) finally weakened in summer 1942.

[Chinook]

here's an idea for the summer, based on analogs-- the analogs are pretty simple, just summers after a strong El Nino (or something close to a strong El Nino)

 

 

 

[Mercurial]

So, do the people like the Broncos up in Montana?

 

 

 

They do... public opinion is split between the Seahawks and Broncos but Broncos tend to have the advantage.  Also lots of Steelers bandwagoners.

[raindancewx]

I'm curious to see if the El Nino actually dies as expected - it still looks pretty healhy...but we can't/won't get three in a row right? 1939-40, 1940-41, 1941-42 is the only triple El Nino I know of. Albuquerque has had three >4.3" monsoon seasons in a row only a handfull of times, so the seasons after those three consecutive active monsoons are some of the years I'm looking at - 1931, 1969, 1987, 1993 are possible analogs locally. 1931 was a pretty interesting year.

 

Raindance,

I am wondering if there were any dominating features during the summer after a strong El Nino. I am thinking it may be warm in the Central and East this summer. This year's El Nino will transition to neutral or perhaps even into strong La Nina next winter. I am wondering if Summer 1998, 1942, and maybe 1983, 1973 might be reasonable analogs. It appears that the negative SOI (El Nino) finally weakened in summer 1942.

[Chinook]

Downtown Los Angeles was high 89 low 56. Note: my area averages high 88 low 59 in mid-July.

--

...PRELIMINARY RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERNCALIFORNIA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT LOS ANGELESDOWNTOWN (USC) CA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN2006.