Chinook Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 Klawock Alaska had a high of 71 on March 31st. That broke a high temperature record for the month of March in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Local NWS (ABQ) seems interested in this feature - THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MONSTEROF A WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 Good catch, Raindancewx. Multiple models and ensembles are pointing to a closed 500mb low in NV, UT and CO, or possibly NM in about a week. Could be a stormy pattern with heavy snow above 8000ft, or possibly affecting populated areas like Salt Lake or Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 10, 2016 Share Posted April 10, 2016 That is a very interesting point. I hope they will resolve it. Not to be annoying or anything, but the Denver official NWS office is in Boulder, and as you can see here, the climate/weather sites in Denver are spread over the city. The Denver NWS forecasters are in a large NOAA building close to the CU campus in Boulder. (This building also houses the ESRL-PSD and the Space Weather Prediction Center) The NWS operates the KFTG radar at KFTG airport. There is the TDEN radar, which is a few miles from KFTG, but not within the borders of DIA. KDEN weather observation (at DIA) is most likely operated by the FAA contract observer(s) there. The upper-air sounding location, called KDNR, is located at the old Stapleton Airport. Weather records were kept at Stapleton Airport until 1994. Before Stapleton was built, I believe weather records were kept downtown. There's kind of a long-term climate problem in all of this. Downtown, Stapleton, and DIA all have kept weather records in different years. The upslope snow/rain events (and sometimes summertime rain) have greater rain/snow near downtown, by several percent. So the climate at DIA is drier. It is also less windy and more moist (higher RH) in the urban area, compared to dusty DIA. What a mess. Seems like nobody bothered to tell the people who make policy that there are, well, these things called mountains here. But I think also important is that we need a better automated way of measuring precip when there is wind or freezing temps involved. I imagine somebody took a core sample from the snow measuring place at DIA on 3/23. That would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted April 10, 2016 Share Posted April 10, 2016 Anyone buying the last couple of Euro runs for Denver? 40"+!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 10, 2016 Share Posted April 10, 2016 1885, 1935, 1972, 1933, and 1957 all saw huge snowstorms in Denver in April. I'd like it to miss south and wallop NM, but Denver could probably get 18"-28" in this pattern if I had to guess. I don't buy 40"+...but you never know. http://www.weather.gov/bou/snowstat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 10, 2016 Author Share Posted April 10, 2016 The 12z and 18z GFS had 0.81" and 2.10" for Denver in 48 hours. If a deep 500mb low stalls like that, (5-7 day forecast) a lot of QPF is possible east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Yesterday at KGPI, the temperature rose from 32 to 76, then back to 32. A couple days prior we torched from 27 up to 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 What a mess. Seems like nobody bothered to tell the people who make policy that there are, well, these things called mountains here. But I think also important is that we need a better automated way of measuring precip when there is wind or freezing temps involved. I imagine somebody took a core sample from the snow measuring place at DIA on 3/23. That would help. Here is my idea for measuring precipitation. Use a class A evaporation pan to measure all precipitation. Then have a funnel to a super long inner-tube for more precise measurement. It would be 3 or 4 ft wide metal rain gauge with a 5 ft long inner tube. It would be able to collect snow, hail and rain without it bouncing out, drifting out, or getting blown out by wind. Is it crazy? A Class A evaporation pan is a metal pan the size of a kiddie pool. These pans can be used to measure precipitation- they're built for measuring evaporation to a high degree of accuracy. When precipitation falls (and evaporation doesn't happen) the water level rise in the pool is equal to the precipitation. Now, if you didn't mess around with keeping water in the pool, it might just be a giant rain gauge, better for gathering all types of precipitation. It is also possible that it would collect leaves in the fall, which would be detrimental. The NWS-WPC web page may look like this in the future: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/para/#page=sum The upcoming upper level trough in the West may provide 1.0" of QPF to several mountain ranges in several states, and possibly over 1.75" for eastern Colorado, within the next 7 days. The WPC 7-day QPF even has 2.50" for the KS/CO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 The 00z GFS got a little bit colder and wetter for the Front Range storm. Now it has 2-3" of liquid equivalent and 12"-18" of snow for the Front Range within the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Here is my idea for measuring precipitation. Use a class A evaporation pan to measure all precipitation. Then have a funnel to a super long inner-tube for more precise measurement. It would be 3 or 4 ft wide metal rain gauge with a 5 ft long inner tube. It would be able to collect snow, hail and rain without it bouncing out, drifting out, or getting blown out by wind. Is it crazy? A Class A evaporation pan is a metal pan the size of a kiddie pool. These pans can be used to measure precipitation- they're built for measuring evaporation to a high degree of accuracy. When precipitation falls (and evaporation doesn't happen) the water level rise in the pool is equal to the precipitation. Now, if you didn't mess around with keeping water in the pool, it might just be a giant rain gauge, better for gathering all types of precipitation. It is also possible that it would collect leaves in the fall, which would be detrimental. The NWS-WPC web page may look like this in the future: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/para/#page=sum The upcoming upper level trough in the West may provide 1.0" of QPF to several mountain ranges in several states, and possibly over 1.75" for eastern Colorado, within the next 7 days. The WPC 7-day QPF even has 2.50" for the KS/CO border. I like this idea! Would love to see a study of a contraption like this. Could put a coarse screen over it during leaf season. If you can build it in the next two-three days, could have a nice trial (though perhaps the wind variable would not be a lot for this one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Wow, from today's AFD: IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...SNOWAMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THEWEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Any blossoms or leaves in Estes yet? Could be bad for them - not temps, but weight of snow. Here, I am actually hoping that we don't get much snow. Spring is in full swing and more than a few inches could be a nightmare. Our lilacs have not had decent blossoms in 2+ years because of late freezes, and they are looking really good to bloom late this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Any blossoms or leaves in Estes yet? Could be bad for them - not temps, but weight of snow. Here, I am actually hoping that we don't get much snow. Spring is in full swing and more than a few inches could be a nightmare. Our lilacs have not had decent blossoms in 2+ years because of late freezes, and they are looking really good to bloom late this weekend... There is not much blooming yet. I did see some buttercup-like blossoms up in the moraine part of the park last week. Over the past few days the grass has begun to green up but the trees haven't. The snow is fine by me and kind of welcome as a nice parting shot, but we'll see if this performs or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Here are the lastest NWS gridded forecast and the 12z GFS (kuchera ratio) which has 5-12" near my house. This is pretty nuts. I don't think I am ready to see snow again. 12z GFS has up to 60" on the north side of RMNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Boulder could get 0-36" as per the SREF plumes. I'm not so sure the general public would find that very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Similar pattern to last month... though not as sudden, 00z models (what I can get, GFS/NAM/WPC percentiles) all continue to trend cold- maybe a hair colder- with QPF around 2 inches consistently. WPC 25th-50th-75th percentiles for snow for South Metro DEN are 7-14-22 inches respectively, with deterministic GFS saying 18 and NAM around 10. Crazy. Wonder if precip intensity with this one will dictate ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2016 Author Share Posted April 15, 2016 NWS gridded forecasts just keep going up. Now the NWS has 10" for Denver downtown, 11-13" Fort Collins, 46" is the max in Colorado, probably north of Estes Park. This may be one of the top storms in my lifetime. I heard on the news that Xcel energy is bringing in more workers from out of state that are ready to fix downed power lines. We really don't need more tree damage. I am watching an exciting Sharks vs. Kings game right now. Just saw 2 goals in like 10 seconds of game time. I doubt the Red Wings will give me as much playoff enjoyment as I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2016 Author Share Posted April 15, 2016 I want to take a moment to do a little rant and rave. I don't know what is up with this package of the GFS (2014's upgrade). It sometimes has 2m-temp and 10m-wind predictions that have sharp (but small-ish) differences by latitude and longitude lines. It has this problem at relatively flat areas of the US and also north Africa. I know it's something on the near-surface modeling, whether it be land-surface model or boundary layer physics. A new GFS package is coming out in a month. This 13-km GFS has done some weird things over the last 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 12z models a bit warmer, just as wet. NAM has 4-10" across most of the Metro area. Fort Collins has a gradient of like 4-18" within a block or two. Must be that dry ice plant just west of I-25. Yeah, that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 12z models a bit warmer, just as wet. NAM has 4-10" across most of the Metro area. Fort Collins has a gradient of like 4-18" within a block or two. Must be that dry ice plant just west of I-25. Yeah, that's it. Right on the edge here in western Broomfield County...I think with the heavy precip tomorrow morning through evening we get pounded. First and only call...14-17" here, 10-12" at DIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2016 Author Share Posted April 15, 2016 When this sort of storm happened at the same time of the year in 2013, there weren't any leaves or flowers on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Love CO... WSW and TOR warning in the same state at the same time. Couldn't get a pic of the NWS map for some reason. From what I remember a couple years back there was a TOR and a blizzard at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 When this sort of storm happened at the same time of the year in 2013, there weren't any leaves or flowers on the trees. At least in the north Denver metro area, there are only a few ornamental plantings that have any substantial blooms or leaf out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Solid snow now. The flake size is enormous which brings some question about the 10:1 ratio if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 15, 2016 Author Share Posted April 15, 2016 DOT webcams are showing several inches on the roads in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 EURO did pretty well looks like. Local NWS (ABQ) seems interested in this feature - THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MONSTEROF A WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 5.6 inches of snow approaching the density of a black hole here. No visible tree damage yet but probably won't be long. What's the deal with all the N-NW downsloping when the low is west of us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16, 2016 Author Share Posted April 16, 2016 Fort Collins is getting downsloped from the Cheyenne Ridge. There is absolutely no snow. We got about 0.45" of rain overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16, 2016 Author Share Posted April 16, 2016 Vail Pass traffic cams from yesterday and today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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