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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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As per local storm reports Erie to Lafayette has gotten 18-24". That is pretty incredible.

20" in western Broomfield County. There are some 4-5' drifts in the golf course to the west. I can see the Flatirons now as the cloud deck lifts. Very impressive event, I don't know that I've seen 20" of snow in 11 hours before.

 

As disruptive as this event was, I am glad to see the significant precipitation over the whole area. Should give us a nice green spring.

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The next round of snow will come in on Saturday. It is perfectly fine if this one misses my back yard. I think my area got 1.4 to 1.6" water equivalent from the rain and snow. i heard there are power outages in Denver today. 

 

A winter storm watch has been issued for south Denver metro Saturday. 4-8" (under 7000ft). valid for Palmer Divide. Also a winter storm watch for Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Trinidad. This looks like a good storm for the all sections of the mountains. This NWS graphic says 10-20" for most sections of mountains. The southern mountains haven't gotten very much since early February (not sure?). The GFS has 0.5" to 1.0" of QPF for the mountains, so 5-20" should be possible.

 

UEFYkpr.png

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Cheyenne Airport broke a record for daily precip and daily snow

 

..THE CHEYENNE WYOMING AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 23 2016    CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010  CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2016    WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                       VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                                         NORMAL                ..............................................................    TEMPERATURE (F)                                                        YESTERDAY                                                               MAXIMUM         34   1224 AM  72    2012  49    -15       60           MINIMUM         22    945 PM  -1    1898  26     -4       37           AVERAGE         28                        38    -10       49                                                                               PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                       YESTERDAY        1.20R         0.67 1909   0.03   1.17      T          MONTH TO DATE    1.74                      0.73   1.01     0.07        SINCE JAN 1      2.94                      1.53   1.41     0.83                                                                             SNOWFALL (IN)                                                            YESTERDAY       14.1 R         8.9  1996   0.4   13.7      0.0  
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I don't think Saturday's storm had quite that much snow for the central CO mountains, as was shown on that NWS gridded forecast I posted before. For the next couple of days, the interior West should get a bit of snow. The NAM now has 3 to 6.5ft for the Wind River central Wyoming range. Oh how painful this must be for Salt Lake City, barely a couple of inches from this major Great Basin storm.

 

rhmOPjN.png

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I don't think Saturday's storm had quite that much snow for the central CO mountains, as was shown on that NWS gridded forecast I posted before. For the next couple of days, the interior West should get a bit of snow. The NAM now has 3 to 6.5ft for the Wind River central Wyoming range. Oh how painful this must be for Salt Lake City, barely a couple of inches from this major Great Basin storm.

rhmOPjN.png

The southern foothills actually did really well Saturday with 10-14" in my area. It was very localized however.

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Here is what I said on September 14, 2015. I was right. Based on history, I told everybody to watch out for a big storm this winter. If the big one is in March, it might be worse. My hunch was that March is the month when the most moisture seems to at the same time/place as some of the best winter dynamic systems. El Nino winters have produced some big high-impact storms. Once again, Denver was the focal point for some of the worst conditions last week. (Similar to '82... Fort Collins got missed in '82) This time, Denver got 18-24", while Fort Collins got 12". So that's not a miss for Fort Collins but it is less.  Most areas around here got the big dog in 2003 and 2006, which were both El Ninos. I think most areas got at least 8" in Oct 1997. I think Denver was the focal point for that one.

 

72-hr snow total from 10/23 to 10/26, 1997. Looks like 18" affected a bunch of areas. Not sure which number is from Fort Collins

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/72HR/1997/19971026_072_pttotal.png

 

 

 

September 14, 2015

 

 


Some of the greatest Denver snowstorms have occurred with strong El Ninos. Blizzard of Christmas '82. Blizzard of October '97. Note '02-'03 was an El Nino, but it wasn't as strong as the other two super-El Ninos. In '02-'03, our area had an upper level ridge and very little snow for a long time. Then the Front Range cities got blitzed with 20-35" of snow on March 17 2003.  If a big March storm affects us in 2016, watch out!

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I thought that cutoff low that was meandering down in Mexico for a while would eventually get into a favorable position to draw moisture from the GOM into the Front Range, but it never quite materialized. That's when you start seeing those absurd Cascade Mtn type snowfall amounts in the eastern Rockies. Very rare setup, but I always thought this super nino might be capable of such a thing. Came close, but no dice. Still a few weeks to make something happen, I suppose.

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My area got several snow showers yesterday, with some gusts over 25mph. About 0.11" - 0.12" water equivalent of snow fell, and the grass stayed green. I believe some of the local storm reports indicated 24" on Casper Mountain (near Casper WY)

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Got a question for those in Denver. When do you seem to get the worst hail storms. We hope to visit in August and renting a car for 2 weeks. Normally I don't get the extra insurance but when I see pictures of the hail storms y'all get. It kind of has me a bit worried. Thanks.

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Got a question for those in Denver. When do you seem to get the worst hail storms. We hope to visit in August and renting a car for 2 weeks. Normally I don't get the extra insurance but when I see pictures of the hail storms y'all get. It kind of has me a bit worried. Thanks.

I would say late May to mid-July. There are generally fewer tornadoes and fewer large hail  events in the Front Range cities after mid-July. The chance of heavy rain is highest around August 1st. Of course there's a very good chance of sunny weather on any given day. There's no way I can tell you the exact cost vs. benefit of the rental car insurance. If you go into the mountains, large hail is unlikely, but small hail and cold rain is more likely. (Thankfully, the hail won't dent your car if it is 1/4" wide).  If you really want to, you can mess with SPC's online SeverePlot to find out about past hail events near your area of interest.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php

 

This contains a plot of annual average daily severe weather occurrences for the FTG radar radius

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/FTG.html

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Yup, June is typically the worst from a large hail probability standpoint, though the worst hail in the South Metro area in the past 6 years was Sept 29, 2014, with widespread 2" hail. An anomaly to be sure. But thinking of the probability of hail big enough to hurt a car (~1") in any given 2 week period in August, I'd say about 2-3% on the Plains, mountains considerably less.

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As many know, most of the Front Range got a lot of precip with the 3/23 blizzard. The NWS at DIA measured only 0.90" melted, though 18.4" snow. Ratio was much closer to 10:1 elsewhere, with widespread 1.8 to 2" melted.

 

So the officials say the precip for March is "under review". Anybody got a super slo-mo or reverse angle shot of DIA on that day? Does the ruling on the field stand if the snow never actually hit the ground before being measured? :)

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That is a very interesting point. I hope they will resolve it.

Not to be annoying or anything, but the Denver official NWS office is in Boulder, and as you can see here, the climate/weather sites in Denver are spread over the city. The Denver NWS forecasters are in a large NOAA building close to the CU campus in Boulder. (This building also houses the ESRL-PSD and the Space Weather Prediction Center) The NWS operates the KFTG radar at KFTG airport. There is the TDEN radar, which is a few miles from KFTG, but not within the borders of DIA. KDEN weather observation (at DIA) is most likely operated by the FAA contract observer(s) there. The upper-air sounding location, called KDNR, is located at the old Stapleton Airport. Weather records were kept at Stapleton Airport until 1994. Before Stapleton was built, I believe weather records were kept downtown.

 

There's kind of a long-term climate problem in all of this. Downtown, Stapleton, and DIA all have kept weather records in different years. The upslope snow/rain events (and sometimes summertime rain) have greater rain/snow near downtown, by several percent. So the climate at DIA is drier. It is also less windy and more moist (higher RH) in the urban area, compared to dusty DIA.

 

Ci9XESk.jpg

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On Tuesday, a cold front came through the area and dropped temps to the upper 40's/lower 50's in the middle of the day.

Max winds on Tuesday:

 

Fort Collins- foothills: 67.6mph

Fort Collins- CSU campus: 39.2mph

FNL airport: 36 kt (41mph)

Greeley: 45kt (52mph)

Cheyenne: 50kt (58mph)

LMO airport: 39 kt (45mph)

Boulder- NCAR Mesa- approx. 80mph

Boulder- NCAR Foothills- approx 47mph

Boulder BJC airport: 52 kt (60mph)

DIA: 46kt (53mph)

Laramie: 46kt (53mph)

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