Chinook Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 This is the 00z Euro forecast for 06 Thursday (150 hours). As of right now, the Euro has a large amount of precip on Wed-Thu with temps at about freezing. The 12z GFS has some snow for this time period, including some in northern Wyoming and also Jefferson County CO. The shortwave axis takes shape in California/Nevada and moves through the Four Corners as an open 500mb trough. This is definitely something to watch, as a 3-6" type storm for Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Best estimate (could be an inch or two on the low side): Nov 20" Dec 15" Jan 5.2" Feb 12.5" March 3" Total 55.7 season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Ended with 10" on the western end of Broomfield, more than I was expecting. We really cashed in on those bands that kept moving through the Boulder-Westminster corridor. Roads were awful yesterday morning. Lots of people stuck on hills or in ditches and guardrails right around the Interlocken area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2016 Author Share Posted March 19, 2016 March 17-18 radar loop for our area. I tried to include several more hours after yesterday morning. It kept snowing in the Denver area for during the daytime. I'm not sure exactly how long or how intensely it kept snowing around Denver, since it doesn't look like much on radar. I got flurries at 5:00PM yesterday. Fort Collins stayed below freezing or at freezing from Thursday night to just recently (12 noon.) http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/mar_17_18_2016_radar_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2016 Author Share Posted March 19, 2016 On Wednesday the 23rd, the 500mb energy seems to be a couple hundred miles north. Maybe some 6-12" snow totals from Wyoming-South Dakota-Minnesota. Perhaps this will help out the mountain snow pack in NE Wyoming. March 19 snow water equivalent values. Things are looking fairly positive for most of the West, but NM and AZ really never were getting close to average snowfall. There is above 90% in the southern Sangre De Cristo range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Mountain ranges in Wyoming and Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 We were doing pretty well from Oct 10-Jan 10 and then it basically stopped except for three or so little storms. I've had literally no rain/snow at all in March, well on our way to 9th dry March in a row pending a big storm or several little storms showing up after the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Raindance, You seem to be quite concerned that ABQ (and/or your house) is on its way to a 9th drier-than-normal March in a row. According to NWS NOWDATA page, Fort Collins official reporting station has had at or below average March precipitation since 2003. 2010 was close to, but less than, our average of 1.59". 2007 was exactly the average of 1.59". March 2013, 2010, and 2006 were above our average snowfall of 12.1" but less than our average precipitation. As for Denver, 2004-2012 and 2014-2015 had below average precipitation in March. There is some question as to what is the average precipitation for Denver, as the weather observations were at Denver-Stapleton until 1994, then at DIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 It's the whole state - there has hardly been any precip anywhere in NM (or AZ) this month. When we get a good fall/winter and then it's hot/dry in March the snowpack gets destroyed even if April/May end up being decent or restorative. I think this (long-term) warm AMO, cold AMO combo is largely behind it, although it wasn't this bad in the comparable March 48 - March 57 super-drought period. The other thing gets me is every Nino March has sequentially dropped for precip in ABQ for the past 18 years: 98>03>05>07>10>15 and 15 is currently >16. At this point I'd settle for a rainy March in the valleys, that would be snow for the mountains. Have you had streaks of comparable same-month dryness in other months up there? We had streaks of up to 12 years below the long 84 year average in the same month, with the longest being May/Sept (both 12) followed by Juy/Oct (both 10). What's interesting is if you look at the "streak break" years when you finally get a wet month, the streak breaker month is often 1.5-4x wetter than normal. We've had several long streaks of dry months ended in the past decade - notably in Dec (ended in 06), Feb (ended in 15), May (ended in 07), and Nov (ended in 13). The only active streaks of any note right now are March (8+ at the moment), June (5 - could end this year), and Apr/Aug (3 - could end this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 You could check it here http://www.fortcollins.salsite.com/Precip_Fort_Collins1.png That's my spreadsheet on Fort Collins precipitation since 2005. I moved here in 2006. Our Augusts have been less rainy than average for 7 straight years. I consider the July 15th - August 15th time period (31days) to be our monsoon month. Probably the most likely time of heavy rainfall here is July 20th-August 10th (21 days). Not a whole lot of storms have produced in the month of August. July hasn't been so terrible. Edit: I posted two more tables to my web site of official Fort Collins data (NWS NOWData) http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/fort_collins_plots/Fort_Collins_Precip_2000_2016.png http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/fort_collins_plots/Fort_Collins_Snowfall_2000_2016.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 These persistent "same-month" droughts that last for a long time seem directly tied to the warm AMO here. When the AMO began cooling recently quite a few of the longer same-month dry spells ended. The red lines here denote an unbroken length of time when a month (say March) has been drier than normal year in and year out. Data is for Albuquerque based on long-term normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 The 12z Euro is a little bit wet for Denver and nearby areas, out to 240 hrs, that is, 1.45" for Denver (14.5"-29" of snow). Recent GFS runs have 0.95"-1.3" within 240 hours (9.5-19" or 13-26" of snow, take your pick.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 As my nephews would say - AccuWeatherMan, recovering from RidgeZilla's Heat Blast, takes out his Precip Shield and unleashes a Subtropical Jet. RidgeZilla rocks back on his heels... Sorry, too many young relatives are gamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Larry Cosgrove & Joe Bastardi both seem to think that as we get deeper in the spring the SW (S. California to West Texas), particularly mid-Apr into May. Cosgrove had this - would be similar to last Spring when March 1 - Apr 15 were very dry in the SW and then the rains/snows went a bit nuts Apr 16 - May 31. NOAA did say May 15 was the wettest month in US history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 I saved this image on August 29, 2005, on my (relatively new) GRLevel3 version 1 screen. Let's never forget the lessons learned from Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 As my nephews would say - AccuWeatherMan, recovering from RidgeZilla's Heat Blast, takes out his Precip Shield and unleashes a Subtropical Jet. RidgeZilla rocks back on his heels... Sorry, too many young relatives are gamers. I attack with my raindrop + 1. Roll.... Critical fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Models seem to be predicting decent snow in SE Wyoming, the CO mountains, and farther east about 50 miles east of Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I attack with my raindrop + 1. Roll.... Critical fail. Ridgezilla uses Downsloping Push, we'll see if Precip Shield is stronger. Roll still TBD. OK someone stop this before it gets out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 Models may be converging on a prediction of a blizzard for a narrow region of Colorado (Eastern Adams, Arapahoe, and Morgan and Washington Counties.) I think blizzard conditions with 4-12" totals will hit some of these high plains locations. I-25 corridor snow totals are going to be hard to forecast. Unfortunately, that's we're most interested in. Snow totals of 6-18" are likely for most of the mountains around and north of I-70. I think Wyoming will get 6-12" for some central and eastern locations, This may greatly impact Cheyenne, Laramie, and Casper and Douglas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Wow. The 00Z models, all I can find quickly (op GFS, NAM, HRRR) are all going apes**t with QPF as well as snow, with 12 hour QPF of an inch+, mostly snow, between 3AM and 3 PM in the east and south metro area. Figures, my kids both fly out on school trips tomorrow, one at 8 AM and the other at 2 PM. Wow. Was rooting for AccuWeatherMan, but couldn't the battle be just a few hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Wow. The 00Z models, all I can find quickly (op GFS, NAM, HRRR) are all going apes**t with QPF as well as snow, with 12 hour QPF of an inch+, mostly snow, between 3AM and 3 PM in the east and south metro area. Figures, my kids both fly out on school trips tomorrow, one at 8 AM and the other at 2 PM. Wow. Was rooting for AccuWeatherMan, but couldn't the battle be just a few hours later? You all were in my "blizzard" zone for March. May even snow down here again. Most of this is supposedly coming by 3/27/16. More follows in the 3/29 to 4/2 period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 Wow. The 00Z models, all I can find quickly (op GFS, NAM, HRRR) are all going apes**t with QPF as well as snow, with 12 hour QPF of an inch+, mostly snow, between 3AM and 3 PM in the east and south metro area. Figures, my kids both fly out on school trips tomorrow, one at 8 AM and the other at 2 PM. Wow. Was rooting for AccuWeatherMan, but couldn't the battle be just a few hours later? The 00z NAM and GFS have 1-2" QPF in Larimer County. I could definitely use that, in rain or snow format. My area is getting a few sprinkles now. Blizzard warning for Greeley/ Weld County ------- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EATON...FORT LUPTON...GREELEY..730 PM MDT TUE MAR 22 2016...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY. THEWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES.* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. --- Blizzard Warning for Denver --- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF....CITY OF DENVER...DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.....BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDTWEDNESDAY...* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA.* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. -- NDFD snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Going to be very interesting to see how this looks in a week. So far the big winter winners are Nevada, Kentucky, Virginia and New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Ridiculous out there this morning. Just saw TWC show a report of 12.7" in Louisville. I aborted my drive to work after a mile and a half or so. Total whiteout and lost the road in drifts on the west end of Broomfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Similar down here.I love driving in this stuff normally but this morning is just not safe. Started at 5:00 AM, now 6" in 3 hrs here, winds gusting to 40 and visibility <1/4 mile (sometimes much less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 A little less in Boulder proper, but amazing how sloppy this stuff is. Between the rain to start, and the warm temps, I feel like I'm back in Philly. Tough day for the power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 The band rolling through Boulder right now is beautiful. Large flakes and high rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 Fort Collins got 0.2" to 0.4" of rain. Then we got some snow. I just measured 12" of snow. It was hard to measure. Snowfall rates must have been incredible while I was sleeping. It is breezy and gusty now. Occasional low visibility (see picture). It is like we got sprayed with white insulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 Blizzard at DIA. Visibility less than 1/4 mile. snow, blowing snow, peak wind 45 knots. tower visibility 1/4 mile. KDEN 231611Z 34036G45KT M1/4SM R35L/1600V2200FT SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 34045/1606 TWR VIS 1/4 P0003 T10171028 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 6 hours, 11.5" of snow. Just got done with one round of shoveling. Heaviest since I moved from MA in 2010... around 10:1 or perhaps a bit less. My kids' flights both got canceled. Visibility was like 100 feet in spots on the way back from DIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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