Chinook Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 We will run this Mountain West discussion from today (Nov 29/30) until around April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Strong winds to develop west of I-25. So we need a Winter Weather Advisory for this? What?? -- THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PMTHIS EVENING TO NOON MST TUESDAY.* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SLOWLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* WIND/VISIBILITY...STRONG WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 This week might be a great week for relieving the drought in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. Multiple storms will hit the same areas this week. Floods may be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 Not much happening in northern Colorado very soon. I suppose we can root on the snow for the Pac Northwest. They have had too much warmth and not enough snow in recent winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 12Z actually looks a bit more optimistic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 18Z even more optimistic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 a few wind gusts to 50kt today in Scotland as a 943mb low whips up in Iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 El Nino snowfall in October to May following an active monsoon in Albuquerque averages 16.7" at the ABQ airport, including 9.2" in our snowiest month (whatever month ends up snowiest). So I do think NM/AZ/Southern UT&CO/West TX get bombed with snow at some point, it's just not for a little while. I lean towards big, cold storms very late in the season, like late March for the SW. -We know the snowiest month at the ABQ airport can't be November (since the airport only got non-accumulating snow, although most of the city did get a little bit of accumulation). - Snowiest month in Albuquerque is highly unlikely to be April. - If the AMO is not positive for the period from Nov-Apr but ends up Neutral or Negative, that snowiest month is also unlikely to be December. AMO seems to be neutral/heading neutral and there aren't any big storms on the horizon for us through ~Dec 10. - I don't think it's real common to get the "snowiest" month as the same calendar month two years in a row. So I don't lean towards February being our top month, especially after almost 10 inches at the airport in Feb 2015 which is huge for Albuquerque. That leaves...January & March. El Ninos this strong in the fall/winter tend to have cold Springs in the SW. So I think the SW gets a slightly above avg core winter (DJF) for snowfall, offset by a flukishly cold snowstorm/blizzard sometime between Feb 20 - Apr 20. CA, UT, NV, OR should do fairly well in Dec - I don't think eastern CO, the interior NW, or the SW get a whole lot in Dec though. Would love to be wrong though. I think most of the West is pretty cold mid-Feb-mid-May, and pretty wet/white too. I have the East getting a couple nasty storms in late Jan-mid Feb (not all snow though) before we get our main fun. For the SW in El Nino years, Spring almost always "feels" cold. In Albuquerque, 15/26 El Nino Springs (MAM) are more than 2F below the 1932-2015 average for high temperatures. Another 6/26 El Nino Springs were "colder anomalies" than the preceding winter, i.e. +1F in Spring instead of +3F in Winter, or -1F in Spring instead of +1F in Winter, so 21/26 Springs are either cold, or have colder anomalies than the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 Composite of strong and very strong El Nino March years. This includes March 1992, which was in a moderate El Nino. Standardized precipitation anomalies. The Southwest was very wet and north central Colorado climate division was reasonably wet. This means there's a chance that north central Colorado could get --the big storm-- in March 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 You don't usually see 21.9" of precipitation predicted by the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I prefer to use 1940-41, 65-66 was pretty strong but it peaked earlier than this Nino, and it was down to a moderate El Nino by Dec 65-Feb 66. Phil Klotzbach had ONI at 1.9 in DJF 1940-41 which is probably fairly close to this event. December is certainly in the low ~2s right? https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/616358915303837696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 Hmm. 1991-1992 El Nino was stronger than I thought based the ONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Looking like a good shot at 2-3 days of on/off snow with different systems for some of the big cities this weekend. Denver, Salt Lake City etc. Good shot is some plowable stuff. Enjoy folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Hey, I guess this is the thread for me now...just moved to Denver last week. Been enjoying the quiet weather as we finalize a living situation and get familiar with the area. Definitely looking forward to some real weather out here after 27 years in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Hey, I guess this is the thread for me now...just moved to Denver last week. Been enjoying the quiet weather as we finalize a living situation and get familiar with the area. Definitely looking forward to some real weather out here after 27 years in Central PA. Welcome. Judging from the sheer number of us that are new transplants, it is no wonder home prices are spiking so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Hey, I guess this is the thread for me now...just moved to Denver last week. Been enjoying the quiet weather as we finalize a living situation and get familiar with the area. Definitely looking forward to some real weather out here after 27 years in Central PA. Welcome, PennMan! Transplant from Nashville --> Denver almost 4 years ago myself. You'll love it - though the Rockies do have quite a crazy impact on short-term weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Welcome. Judging from the sheer number of us that are new transplants, it is no wonder home prices are spiking so quickly Thanks. Yeah, haven't met too many CO natives out here so far, lots of transplants. Welcome, PennMan! Transplant from Nashville --> Denver almost 4 years ago myself. You'll love it - though the Rockies do have quite a crazy impact on short-term weather forecasting. Already loving it for sure. I'll have to brush up on typical weather patterns out here, gonna be a little different than PA. The cloud formations along the front range have been pretty cool so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Thanks. Yeah, haven't met too many CO natives out here so far, lots of transplants. Already loving it for sure. I'll have to brush up on typical weather patterns out here, gonna be a little different than PA. The cloud formations along the front range have been pretty cool so far. I assume you are talking about yesterday afternoon in particular. There was a crazy line of what looked like lenticular clouds around 2pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I assume you are talking about yesterday afternoon in particular. There was a crazy line of what looked like lenticular clouds around 2pm or so.Yeah we were driving back from Fairplay around that time, could see them the whole drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 The ECMWF and GFS predict snow for Saturday here. Until now, the models haven't really agreed or been very consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 The 00z GFS has about 6" from Denver to Fort Collins on Saturday. That's a nice step up from inconsistent model solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The AMO looks like it is going to be positive (on average) from November to April. November had a much higher AMO value in 2015 than 2014, high enough to the point that I'd put the odds of the AMO being neutral from Nov-Apr (like it was last year) at ~30%, with odds at a positive AMO at ~70%. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data I'm a bit concerned about how the pattern has been timed so far - Albuquerque doesn't get much snow in January when the AMO is positive from Nov-Apr because it tends to fall in December, but so far it's been quiet in Dec (bone dry). Maybe late December we get slammed? That being said...AMO+ El Ninos are good for March, so my call before of March being the big month in the SW may still be true. Warm AMO El Ninos tend to be 2F cooler than normal in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Yeah we were driving back from Fairplay around that time, could see them the whole drive. You get used to wild clouds and/or 80+ mile visibility on most days here. We are spoiled. We moved here 5+ years ago and I feel like a townie already. If it weren't for all the people CO would be an idyllic place. Where in Central PA? We lived in the Lehigh Valley for 5 years in the mid 90s. Winters there were actually pretty fun from time to time, though kind of short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 You get used to wild clouds and/or 80+ mile visibility on most days here. We are spoiled. We moved here 5+ years ago and I feel like a townie already. If it weren't for all the people CO would be an idyllic place. Where in Central PA? We lived in the Lehigh Valley for 5 years in the mid 90s. Winters there were actually pretty fun from time to time, though kind of short. Grew up north of Lancaster in Lebanon County. Lived in the State College area from August 2007 until last week. So I'm enjoying living in the vicinity of a big city. Had some pretty wicked winds last night on the drive from Boulder to Golden...easily among the strongest I've experienced in my life, not that that's saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Grew up north of Lancaster in Lebanon County. Lived in the State College area from August 2007 until last week. So I'm enjoying living in the vicinity of a big city. Had some pretty wicked winds last night on the drive from Boulder to Golden...easily among the strongest I've experienced in my life, not that that's saying much. Yup, the Chinook can be really strong sometimes, and the gustiness will really get you, especially driving parallel to the ranges. Last night at 9:30 it was 39 at my house and at 9:50 it was 53. Holy downsloping Batman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 lenticular clouds in Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Interesting video of the Chinook winds blowing through Bozeman, MT. Helena reported gusts to 68mph. Some 80+ mph gusts up around the northern Rocky Mountain front near Glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 heading up to keystone this weekend; not expecting as much as some of the other mountains but hoping to cash in on at least 4-6" - would be the first "significant" snowfall since I moved out to Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 heading up to keystone this weekend; not expecting as much as some of the other mountains but hoping to cash in on at least 4-6" - would be the first "significant" snowfall since I moved out to Colorado. We have picked up a quick 2" here this morning in Estes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Interesting video of the Chinook winds blowing through Bozeman, MT. Helena reported gusts to 68mph. Some 80+ mph gusts up around the northern Rocky Mountain front near Glacier. Not sure why, but I got a chuckle out of that video. "Head em up, move em out" comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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