BxEngine Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Don't tell me tell NASA, they have the satellites and a lot more data than you. I would trust them over you. Post the NASA data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18 at high point NJ right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yea big drop in regions 1,2 last week. 2.1 to 1.6. El Niño is not strengthening and it does a disservice to the facts to cherry pick only the data that supports your position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18 at high point NJ right now I've fallen to 26. Feel arctic out there for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 beware the return of the +epo. the eps shows a similar pacfic as well as the euro weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I said we agreed on the 1st 10 days in the end. We just got to the same place using different language. I didn't touch 1st 10 day avg. I broke the days out first 6 then next 3. I think those 2 calls work Then the real cold. I had always argued the change on the 1st was a complete change at 500 . I only had an issue was with the backend. That's where we disagreed. But see, even this isn't true. You were not a fan of anything greater than +2 for the Jan 7-12 timeframe and daytime highs in the upper 30's. I can go back and quote it if you want. If I'm taking the L on mid-month (which I again maintain is timing related moreso than anything) then you need to take the L of on the first 10-12 days. You had "normal-ish" (your words, not mine), that is not going to be the case here for the most part. Let's be fair. As far as the rest of Jan goes, this is a major TBD. I'm not declaring a loss on the total month quite yet, especially given that look at the ens late. But again, that's a battle for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's a transient relaxation on the Weeklies, which Forky won't point out. New Weeklies today, so we'll get some fresh data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's a transient relaxation on the Weeklies, which Forky won't point out. New Weeklies today, so we'll get some fresh data. You should know Forky by now. He wants warm weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 here comes the snow army Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 here comes the snow armyNo. In fact I've largely written off January now for appreciable snow. I can admit I jumped the gun on the SSW which I still think is coming, just late month, and the pattern now is messy at h5. It's the army of warm posters who cause the trouble here. I don't even know where this type of poster came from? Who the F like warm weather in NYC enough to drone on and on about it all Winter? It started 2-3 winters ago and The whole thing is very odd. You? Well, you've always been you and you know what you're all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No. In fact I've largely written off January now for appreciable snow. I can admit I jumped the gun on the SSW which I still think is coming, just late month, and the pattern now is messy at h5. It's the army of warm posters who cause the trouble here. I don't even know where this type of poster came from? Who the F like warm weather in NYC enough to drone on and on about it all Winter? It started 2-3 winters ago and The whole thing is very odd. You? Well, you've always been you and you know what you're all about. Ehh I wouldn't write off January just yet. A lot of energy moving around after the 1st cutter. I would still watch the Jan 11-12 storm right now but everything is pointing to a coastal hugger at this point. I think once that storm leaves, the area has a better chance of seeing snow since it will drag down really cold air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No. In fact I've largely written off January now for appreciable snow. I can admit I jumped the gun on the SSW which I still think is coming, just late month, and the pattern now is messy at h5. It's the army of warm posters who cause the trouble here. I don't even know where this type of poster came from? Who the F like warm weather in NYC enough to drone on and on about it all Winter? It started 2-3 winters ago and The whole thing is very odd. You? Well, you've always been you and you know what you're all about. what people like is a matter of personal preference. I enjoy cold and snow, but hell if it ain't going to snow, give me what we had in December. What irks me is the folks with an agenda who will never point out anything that looks cold or doesn't support their agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 But see, even this isn't true. You were not a fan of anything greater than +2 for the Jan 7-12 timeframe and daytime highs in the upper 30's. I can go back and quote it if you want. If I'm taking the L on mid-month (which I again maintain is timing related moreso than anything) then you need to take the L of on the first 10-12 days. You had "normal-ish" (your words, not mine), that is not going to be the case here for the most part. Let's be fair. As far as the rest of Jan goes, this is a major TBD. I'm not declaring a loss on the total month quite yet, especially given that look at the ens late. But again, that's a battle for another day. The 1st 6 days will be BN the next 3 AN JAN 10-11-12 are BN . So if it turns out days 1- 12 are A , i will always take the loss . I am BN from day 9 - 16 , so Jan 12 - 20 I am BN , where do you stand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 what people like is a matter of personal preference. I enjoy cold and snow, but hell if it ain't going to snow, give me what we had in December. What irks me is the folks with an agenda who will never point out anything that looks cold or doesn't support their agenda. But we're also looking at 9 or 10 out of the first 12 days of Jan being above normal. Yes it's a step down pattern change and I recognize that but many are saying the warm is transient when it looks more like the cold is what is transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 But we're also looking at 9 or 10 out of the first 12 days of Jan being above normal. Yes it's a step down pattern change and I recognize that but many are saying the warm is transient when it looks more like the cold is what is transient The pattern has def changed from December. After the 11-12, cold air should be dominant for a while with a brief warmup in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No. In fact I've largely written off January now for appreciable snow. I can admit I jumped the gun on the SSW which I still think is coming, just late month, and the pattern now is messy at h5. It's the army of warm posters who cause the trouble here. I don't even know where this type of poster came from? Who the F like warm weather in NYC enough to drone on and on about it all Winter? It started 2-3 winters ago and The whole thing is very odd. You? Well, you've always been you and you know what you're all about. Obviously we don't need a SSW for a good winter example last year but getting it this late in the game might just make for a cruddy spring...to be fair the models didn't look great for snow chances last night. The first two are to warm and then after the 11th the Pv is just crushing everything...I was really expecting to have at least a oppturtinity during this window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Looks like the east end is getting some snow. Just Ocassional flurries in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Obviously we don't need a SSW for a good winter example last year but getting it this late in the game might just make for a cruddy spring...to be fair the models didn't look great for snow chances last night. The first two are to warm and then after the 11th the Pv is just crushing everything...I was really expecting to have at least a oppturtinity during this window the models giveth, the models taketh. Wait 2-3 days and it will be different yet again. Last year our first storm was 1/23-24....plenty of time. The sensible weather of this winter reminds me alot of last year-warm/wet Dec, cold Jan but warmups and rain then back to cold etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 the models giveth, the models taketh. Wait 2-3 days and it will be different yet again. Last year our first storm was 1/23-24....plenty of time. The sensible weather of this winter reminds me alot of last year-warm/wet Dec, cold Jan but warmups and rain then back to cold etc. Agree....just throwing it out there on what the over night models looked like. Our best chance is next week, probably the best pattern we had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Good video this morning by JB on how the GEFS and GFS look wrong moving forward. GFS shows warmth by the end of the month with strong blocking? I doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 of course JB thinks that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 of course JB thinks that Do you agree that the warmth will come with a -EPO and -NAO? Seems fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Do you agree that the warmth will come with a -EPO and -NAO? Seems fishy. Too much pac influence it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 the gfes shows a +epo after 300 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Too much pac influence it can happen the gfes shows a +epo after 300 hrs Gotcha. We shall see. Hope we can cash in when the pattern is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Good video this morning by JB on how the GEFS and GFS look wrong moving forward. GFS shows warmth by the end of the month with strong blocking? I doubt that. that assumes the "strong blocking" is correct. That had been very difficult to come by in the last 2+ years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Wow ...regardless of what it may show, can't believe people still look at the GFS past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You should know Forky by now. He wants warm weather . No he does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No he does not. Yep. Verbatim the GOA is coming back to Alaska by week 4 and roll it forward we will prob get mild after the pna ridge breaks down...looks like the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yep. Verbatim the GOA is coming back to Alaska by week 4 and roll it forward we will prob get mild after the pna ridge breaks down...looks like the weeklies. I see a 2 week period of winter weather from January 15-January 31st and then a well above average February with little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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