Met Winter Banter

[pazzo83]

Euro is a cutter, slightly further east than the 12z run. Unbelieveable how the op runs are way different than the ensembles. Either the op runs are clueless or the ensembles will lose. Time will tell. Anyway goodnight.

 

I guess it's not surprising that the models are struggling with literally unprecedented phenomena occurring in the Pacific and over the Arctic.

[PB GFI]

OK, we will mark you down for < 5 AN days by between 4 Jan and 20 Jan.

 

Done . I like using 5 through the 20th . 

 

Upton has 4 AN so does the Euro . After that I can`t see any .

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Overnight gefs and eps runs continue to reinforce the idea of transient cold. They have actually accelerated this idea. They are now only a few days between now and 1/20 of below normal days and then the pattern breaks down completely. In fact they are more western trough than they are zonal now. January looks to finish I would say +4-+5 temp wise. With this unprecedented El Niño continuing to strengthen if we don't get any help in the North Atlantic February is going to be a sauna.

[PB GFI]

Euro is a cutter, slightly further east than the 12z run. Unbelieveable how the op runs are way different than the ensembles. Either the op runs are clueless or the ensembles will lose. Time will tell. Anyway goodnight.

The EPS is pinning this Inisde OBX .

That looks like a New England and the interior N/E snowstorm The wave spacing is poor and system 1 does not pull the trough axis all the way to the coast or even just inland for that matter .

After this one passes another system off the EC by day 13/14. Wes liked this one the best down in the M/A.

DT picked the above day 8 threat out a week ago and if there is an interior snowstorm and not in your back yard , its still a great call by him .

The pattern get very cold between the 11th through the 20th . Weeklies tonight will show us how long we break .

After a transient warm up the cold is coming as far as snow ? well you are just going to have to wait .

The pattern just changed .

[NittanyWx]

Sorry man , this is what you said , week 1 -6 the period we were arguing about would end up plus 4. It's going to be below N .

 

 

No we weren't...we were arguing about the 11-15 day period on December 27th and whether that 500mb pattern represented eastern cold.  You even quoted my post about the 11-15 day!  Look at the timestamp!

 

We were arguing about whether the Euro Ens look at days 11-15 day (again, from December 27th) would represent above normal temps or not.  My argument was that with major undercutting going on out west, that despite a western Canada ridge and general improvement at the upper latitudes, the 11-15 day period (so that would be January 7-11 for those of you scoring at home) would end up well above normal due to a western undercut flooding the eastern seaboard with mild air.  As of today, the models very much like that idea and we're likely going to end up much warmer than normal.  

[NittanyWx]

Happens.

Hell man, you just quoted me where I said the cold shot in the short term is under-forecast (lo and behold it is) and that the GEFS was too cold in the 11-15 day back on Dec 27th (hasn't verified yet, but that looks right too).

 

I already said I'm taking the L on my mid-month idea.  But what I said in the post you quoted looks pretty damn accurate to me.

[Neblizzard]

Overnight gefs and eps runs continue to reinforce the idea of transient cold. They have actually accelerated this idea. They are now only a few days between now and 1/20 of below normal days and then the pattern breaks down completely. In fact they are more western trough than they are zonal now. January looks to finish I would say +4-+5 temp wise. With this unprecedented El Niño continuing to strengthen if we don't get any help in the North Atlantic February is going to be a sauna.

The pattern is much colder than that. The -AO is taking a nosedive it's a just a matter of the models nailing it down. Thank you for your analysis , always appreciated.

[BxEngine]

Overnight gefs and eps runs continue to reinforce the idea of transient cold. They have actually accelerated this idea. They are now only a few days between now and 1/20 of below normal days and then the pattern breaks down completely. In fact they are more western trough than they are zonal now. January looks to finish I would say +4-+5 temp wise. With this unprecedented El Niño continuing to strengthen if we don't get any help in the North Atlantic February is going to be a sauna.

Continuing to strengthen? every enso region is down from a month ago.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Neblizzard, yes, there is potential there for sustained cold but only if we get significant blocking in the -NAO region. I'm not going to believe that will happen until I see it modeled within a week or less consistently . Otherwise the El Niño fueled energy undercutting in the west is not going to allow much of a sustained +pna and we'll get n or an temps again and even might get very warm under a western trough and Se ridge after about week two. I wish it were no so but you cannot go against persistence here and some are missing that. The flip of last year is tainting them.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Yes this is El Niño is not gone strengthening yet.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Yes this is El Niño is not gone strengthening yet.

Actually it is factually and inarguably finished strengthening. And, in fact, weakening, albeit slowly.

[PB GFI]

No we weren't...we were arguing about the 11-15 day period on December 27th.  You even quoted my post about the 11-15 day!  Look at the timestamp!

 

We were arguing about whether the Euro Ens look at days 11-15 day (again, from December 27th) would represent above normal temps or not.  My argument was that with major undercutting going on out west, that despite a western Canada ridge and general improvement at the upper latitudes, the 11-15 day period (so that would be January 7-11 for those of you scoring at home) would end up well above normal due to a western undercut flooding the eastern seaboard with mild air.  As of today, the models very much like that idea and we're going to end up much warmer than normal.

 

 

I know the time stamp . We argued about the change occurring after the 1st of the year I broke the dates down for you .

1-6 was Jan  then I said a 3 day warm up and then cold .

Later and prob 50x in here i used the 2nd thru the 6th . 

 

You said the east in the L/R would be flooded with mild air . The opposite happens after the 10th which would have coincided with the 10- 15 period . No one said you didn`t get the GEFS wrong which would be the new 6 to 10 here .  But you also said the split flow would not allow the east to get cold  in the L/.R 

 

We argued over this period . It got  1 day  right . I said this period would end up BN . You said sunny skies , bare ground , this looked right .  

 

 

[BxEngine]

Yes this is El Niño is not gone strengthening yet.

Every nino region is down in the last month. unless you have stunning new data.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Every nino region is down in the last month. unless you have stunning new data.

Surface down and subsurface cooling. The NASA info last week was complete hogwash and, frankly, puzzling.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

I'll agree there is debate as to the state of the Nino but just last week someone posted a link on here from noaa stating it was a mixed bag and in fact the Nino may not be done yet. If anything it's peaked and that's very late in the game for a turnaround in sensible weather this winter.

[Brian5671]

The Jan 10th storm is rain I guess.  This is why day 10 progs are mostly useless.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I'll agree there is debate as to the state of the Nino but just last week someone posted a link on here from noaa stating it was a mixed bag and in fact the Nino may not be done yet. If anything it's peaked and that's very late in the game for a turnaround in sensible weather this winter.

There is no debate and the info was from NASA not NOAA. And, it was wrong.

[BxEngine]

I'll agree there is debate as to the state of the Nino but just last week someone posted a link on here from noaa stating it was a mixed bag and in fact the Nino may not be done yet. If anything it's peaked and that's very late in the game for a turnaround in sensible weather this winter.

No. There is no debate. Nino is down in every region, its not "still a strengthening nino".

[NittanyWx]

I know the time stamp . We argued about the change occurring after the 1st of the year I broke the dates down for you .

 

 

Are you drunk?

 

The time frame you and I were arguing about, and the timeframe you quoted me on were for the 11-15 day period on December 27th.  The 11-15 day period on December 27th is January 7-11.  There is no more discussion at all past this point.  What you're trying to do is move the goalposts.  I even agreed with you that there was a 1-2 day transient cold shot right after the new year!

 

Based on today's model guidance and observations, KNYC stands to be below normal for a grand total of 2 days in the first 10 days of January.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

It's also a fallacy that it peaked too late to get sensible weather. 1983, 1958 are just a two analogs for strong el ninos with mid December peaks, which yielded snowy second halfs. Then there's the PV split that's coming. But we don't need to get into that until there are signs of it happening.

[PB GFI]

Yes. There is a 3 day stretch where we are probably plus 5 , but it's BN for the 5 daya prior and then could get really cold after , starting D 13 .

As with most patterns here troughs sometimes pulse then pull back then re fire.

N to BN to slightly AN to BN if dry will not make people happy .

But it's the start of what could be a decent second half.

 

When speaking about how we open Jan .  Day 13 would represent  Jan 10 here  That 3 day  of AN stretch would rep he 6th thru the 9th during this period 

I think that`s a decent forecast . 

[snowman19]

Every nino region is down in the last month. unless you have stunning new data.

It is definitely weakening for sure, but very very slowly so far

[PB GFI]

Are you drunk?

 

The time frame you and I were arguing about, and the timeframe you quoted me on were for the 11-15 day period on December 27th.  The 11-15 day period on December 27th is January 7-11.  There is no more discussion at all past this point.  What you're trying to do is move the goalposts.  I even agreed with you that there was a 1-2 day transient cold shot right after the new year!

 

Based on today's model guidance and observations, KNYC stands to be below normal for a grand total of 2 days in the first 10 days of January.

 

Our disagreement has always been the assumption that you were calling for the east to hard pressed to get cold in the L/R.

 

We can debate the first 6 days followed by a transient period and how that adds up to the 1st 10 days etc .

 

But I actually broke those days down in here and I THINK it works .

 

I thought your position was the east would not get cold in a split flow . Not moving the goalpost.  

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

It is definitely weakening for sure, but very very slowly so far

It isn't weakening abnormally slowly and forcing is occurring where what weakening there is should promote cold in the east. The PAC is a beast this Winter though, that much is clear. Need the PV split IMO or were going to have a hard time getting much snow through Feb. In 1958, the SSW occurred in late Jan/early Feb, so there is still time and there is evidence it will happen this year. If it doesn't, bygones.

[NittanyWx]

Our disagreement has always been the assumption that you were calling for the east to hard pressed to get cold in the L/R.

 

We can debate the first 6 days followed by a transient period and how that adds up to the 1st 10 days etc .

 

But I actually broke those days down in here and I THINK it works .

 

I thought your position was the east would not get cold in a split flow . Not moving the goalpost.  

 

Dude, I'm not trying to give you a hard time here.  But what I said about the first 10 days of the month looks bang on correct.  Yes, there is a cold front in here and I even said (all the way back on December 23rd) that I like the idea of a 1-2 day cold shot around the turn of the new year.  But this cold shot (albeit sharper) is very quick.  We stand to be above normal 7-8 days out of of the first 10 days of January (again, if you believe the models today).

 

I already said my ideas about mid-month appear to be wrong, though what happens after this Jan 13-16 cold shot appears very much up for debate.  I'm not wrong about the beginning of this month though, and that was our biggest argument at the time.

[NittanyWx]

For what it's worth, think there's an opening for a couple of colder days right around New Years.  Pattern argues for a bit more volatility than we've seen.  That part of the discussion being had in here is correct

 

Cmon man...

[PB GFI]

Cmon man...

I said we agreed on the 1st 10 days in the end. We just got to the same place using different language. I didn't touch 1st 10 day avg.

I broke the days out first 6 then next 3. I think those 2 calls work Then the real cold. I had always argued the change on the 1st was a complete change at 500 .

I only had an issue was with the backend. That's where we disagreed.

No issues

[swamplover56]

Who cares about semantics we just want a single snowstorm to track I could care less if it's 48and dry or 30 and dry it's boring as heck.

[Morris]

Overnight gefs and eps runs continue to reinforce the idea of transient cold. They have actually accelerated this idea. They are now only a few days between now and 1/20 of below normal days and then the pattern breaks down completely. In fact they are more western trough than they are zonal now. January looks to finish I would say +4-+5 temp wise. With this unprecedented El Niño continuing to strengthen if we don't get any help in the North Atlantic February is going to be a sauna.

You are freaking kidding me.

Latest numbers:

Nino tanking in the east.

1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Don't tell me tell NASA, they have the satellites and a lot more data than you. I would trust them over you.