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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Probably gonna miss on timing here which is frustrating when the MJO playbook looks pretty good overall. MJO can be a tricky beast when it comes to that. Liked the idea of the quick cold shot right after the new year, flip back warm, but thought this flip back cooler would happen a bit closer to mid-month rather than around the 12th, 13th.

Subsequently, the Euro Ens is much milder at the end as it heads towards a ENSO filtered phase 1. Still looks like MJO in charge...

Sorry man , this is what you said , week 1 -6 the period we were arguing about would end up plus 4. It's going to be below N .

The 2nd miss on your part ( and at that range was a big forecast ) was when you said the east would be flooded with mild air and that the pattern looked terrible after the 10th and pulled out the Canadian ensembles to make your point.

It's a 3 day transient ridge and then it gone.

Now we just " cool down " a very cold arctic outbreak east of the Rockies is forecast day 9 thru 15 .

Not cool but probably a 6 day period of well below N. You didn't miss on timing, you missed on your idea.

Now your honking a warm up day 15 ? Well after what happens day 9 thru 14 even the BN the euro is showing will still be BN just not as severe .

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If it bombs like the 18z GFS shows they won't. If it's a somewhat weak rapid mover than yeah but to me that air mass looks fine if the storm is deeper than 990-992

Verbatim (from the 18z gfs) there's no high to the north and there's a low NE Of the Great Lakes. There's basically no cold air source. The storm would really have to bomb and throw back very heavy precip to cool the column and even then it's prob rain in that set up.

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Verbatim (from the 18z gfs) there's no high to the north and there's a low NE Of the Great Lakes. There's basically no cold air source. The storm would really have to bomb and throw back very heavy precip to cool the column and even then it's prob rain in that set up.

I'm banking on that low not hanging around that long, hopefully that's what happens

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The Kara Sea high is beyond impressive, it is absolutely ridiculous based on what I've seen historically.

Anyway, regarding this pattern the split flow nature of this in the 11-15 day would not be a cold signal on the east coast. This is one of those situations where the teleconnections look better, but the east still gets flooded with mild air.

Still think the playbook here is to follow the Nino filtered MJO analogs. They argue this cool shot is likely underforecast short term and consequently the GEFS would likely be too cold 11-15.

Happens.

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