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Met Winter Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

Posted
Posted

I believe Doorman has done a good job of using graphics to illustrate the potential for a more zonal flow second half of January. Reason behind this is the consistent trend for energy to dig into the SW US and breakdown any western ridge. It's El Niño driven, the ensembles show it and it is typical of any El Niño year. We don't always need a -NAO to deliver, but snow goose has also put forth the fact that we generally do need a -NAO to deliver in a string Nino year because otherwise we get too much pacific crashing the party in the west. It's not fiction, it's well founded. You just don't like it so you take jabs. We'll see in a month ago was correct.

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

Pv has split according to DT

Was it you or someone else that was predicting a very major SSW this month and said it was starting to occur? I forget who it was, but that forecast was an incredible, epic, gangbuster fail and huge bust. No only was there never anything remotely close to a SSW, but there is no semblance of one forming whatsoever anytime soon. In fact, HM said we are at least a month away from one, if not longer, IF one even happens this winter at all that is...
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FPizz

FPizz

Posted
Posted

Was it you or someone else that was predicting a very major SSW this month and said it was starting to occur? I forget who it was, but that forecast was an incredible, epic, gangbuster fail and huge bust. No only was there never anything remotely close to a SSW, but there is no semblance of one forming whatsoever anytime soon. In fact, HM said we are at least a month away from one, if not longer, IF one even happens this winter at all that is...

People riding these ssw events the past few years haven't done too well. I think a lot more research has to be done.
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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

There is 0 zonal flow in the guidance for the next 3 weeks.

Not sure if people see a split flow and think that's zonal , but all air from here on in is driven by the -epo +pna and it's arctic in nature.

That little feature that rolls out of Canada day 10 thru 16 is about a week of -10 .

You know the one , most said would not happen.

There are 2 branches here. The STJ will get you get you wet while the N branch will send HP through the lakes.

If it doesn't snow , well dem the breaks. But it will definitely be cold enough .

You take the systems as they come , but this every bit a winter pattern upon us.

Non zonal flow has been posted here 1000x and now the CFS sees it through the 22nd .

Go figure.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Was it you or someone else that was predicting a very major SSW this month and said it was starting to occur? I forget who it was, but that forecast was an incredible, epic, gangbuster fail and huge bust. No only was there never anything remotely close to a SSW, but there is no semblance of one forming whatsoever anytime soon. In fact, HM said we are at least a month away from one, if not longer, IF one even happens this winter at all that is...

Speaking of epic fails .....

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Day 1 - 6 are N to BN and 7- 11 are A  (it is transient ) . Do you want to venture as to why day 12 has a plus 1 anomaly at 5000 feet ( -5 is the actual temp ) and why would that mean BN if the ensembles are right ?

 

 

The Euro thinks there`s a SNOWSTORM going off on the EC day 12- 13 .

Its not warm under sunny skies and bare grounds , the ensembles lower pressure up and down the coast . So - 5 @ 850 is not close to AN .

 

So it prob snows and then the Vortex  collapses in . The warmth is transient 5 days in the heart of this pattern change .

6 days ago. And I have N to BN from 1 thru 6 , so I will own it.

Check out the A period , King .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

PB is right on this one.

 

PB is right on this one.

PB is never wrong  :santa:

------welcome to the open mike brunch

bring us a tune that gives us snow please

Never say never. But Def not often.

I give you the pattern. You can have the snow.

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

There is 0 zonal flow in the guidance for the next 3 weeks.

Not sure if people see a split flow and think that's zonal , but all air from here on in is driven by the -epo +pna and it's arctic in nature.

That little feature that rolls out of Canada day 10 thru 16 is about a week of -10 .

You know the one , most said would not happen.

There are 2 branches here. The STJ will get you get you wet while the N branch will send HP through the lakes.

If it doesn't snow , well dem the breaks. But it will definitely be cold enough .

You take the systems as they come , but this every bit a winter pattern upon us.

Non zonal flow has been posted here 1000x and now the CFS sees it through the 22nd .

Go figure.

 

I don't put much stock in the CFS, I think there is better guidance out there. However, I like to check it from time to time. Now, the 00z run last night, looks a lot more like it would be a relaxation towards the end of the month then a reload as some have said here. It shows the Aleutian low pushing towards AK after this favorable upcoming pattern. Somewhat similar to what some or the Ens are doing. It doesn't stay there, however. It gets pulled back closer to the Aleutians late in the run with the -EPO/+PNA showing up again. It ends up turning Canada frigid around the beginning of February. I'm not making any calls here, but I think you are on the right track with yours.

 

post-4973-0-56462000-1451838784_thumb.gi

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NYStorm

NYStorm

Posted
Posted

I grew up in Tarrytown.

I think the month still has good potential to be above normal. First few days like +4 and then a significant warm-up Day 7-10 as well as the EPO breakdown in the LR.

Yeah, we've spoken before ... you're from Dobbs Ferry right?

 

Still surprised no one has started a thread on the potential event for next weekend.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I grew up in Tarrytown.

I think the month still has good potential to be above normal. First few days like +4 and then a significant warm-up Day 7-10 as well as the EPO breakdown in the LR.

You are 3 days into the month. 2 days of -5 and your N . The guidance is closer to -8 .

The 3 days A are not blowtorch , but the 10 days of BN are very cold.

So find me where we go between the 22 - 30 and there you go .

but weeks 1 thru 3 are easily BN

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I don't put much stock in the CFS, I think there is better guidance out there. However, I like to check it from time to time. Now, the 00z run last night, looks a lot more like it would be a relaxation towards the end of the month then a reload as some have said here. It shows the Aleutian low pushing towards AK after this favorable upcoming pattern. Somewhat similar to what some or the Ens are doing. It doesn't stay there, however. It gets pulled back closer to the Aleutians late in the run with the -EPO/+PNA showing up again. It ends up turning Canada frigid around the beginning of February. I'm not making any calls here, but I think you are on the right track with yours.

attachicon.gif00zCFS.gif

New weeklies tomorrow night. I want to compare them to Thursdays and see what the ridge looks like over HB heading into FEB.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

People riding these ssw events the past few years haven't done too well. I think a lot more research has to be done.

I'd be wary of any SSW forecasts out more than a few days. Such events, if one relies on the literature, are not sufficiently well understood to be predicted far in advance. They are complex. Stratosphere-troposphere interactions may result in differing outcomes e.g., bottom-up SSW events in response to sustained deep blocking vs. top-down SSW events that can trigger strong blocking. 

 

The oversimplified argument is that Rossby waves vertically propagate triggering SSWs. Therefore, watching for such waves provides a good idea regarding the possibility of an SSW. The reality is much more ambiguous. Very few such waves ever trigger such a warming--a few may, but it's more than plausible that some other conditions need to be present for that to happen. Not surprisingly, such warmings typically occur about once every two winters. 

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