cut Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Huh? I think my quote function isn't working as the quotes aren't appearing. This site is not really safari friendly anymore I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 for who and what ? He sees this on Day 10 . It does get cold and active after the 10th but it is impossible to look at any 1 OP seriously this far out . If we see one inside 7 days , then maybe we could focus on them . But the 18 z OP has this one and one a few days later .( Lucky it stays in banter ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 for who and what ? For the east. Plenty of cold and snow chances. Alot of shortwaves running around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 He sees this on Day 10 . It does get cold and active after the 10th but it is impossible to look at any 1 OP seriously this far out . If we see this inside 7 days , then maybe we bite . But the 18 z OP has this one and one a few days later .( Lucky it stays in banter ) . I have learned my lesson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 He sees this on Day 10 . It does get cold and active after the 10th but it is impossible to look at any 1 OP seriously this far out . If we see one inside 7 days , then maybe we could focus on them . But the 18 z OP has this one and one a few days later .( Lucky it stays in banter ) . Let's start a new thread for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I would not worry about the PAC , the hammer did not even come down yet . Think we are all in agreement about relaxing after the 20th for about 10 days before it re fires . There is plenty to look at in the 1st 20 days that the GFS and most here missed . Get through that , then we can move on . Are you saying around Feb ? Cause models be damned, if it hasn't snowed much before that, you can usually safely kiss the rest of winter goodbye, not always, but mostly. Actually, you can usually do that if it doesn't snow much in December, last year being an exception. I like your posts you seem very knowledgeable, and I hope you are right, but looking at local history, I do not expect to have to break out the snowblower much this year. And it is being debated by the weather community as to what will happen next, with some going with cold, some saying back to mild, other saying cold and dry. Cold and dry helps the energy companies, not the snowplow folks...we will have to wait and see. Keep posting, you are giving some of us hope. At least when someone isn't sticking a "fork" in it, if ya know what I mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Don , Tom posted the Jan 10 - Feb 1 500 mb 1958 map away. It looks like the Euro weeklies . The mean ridge was further E then where we are now and that trough ripped right through the M/A. Then Feb 58 was a legendary month . We have done a complete flip at 500 . If things verify as they appear headed, it will be a remarkable turnaround. The worst (excessive warmth) is behind us. So far things remain on course for the development of a much more favorable pattern. The upcoming cold shot is sort of an appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If things verify as they appear headed, it will be a remarkable turnaround. The worst (excessive warmth) is behind us. So far things remain on course for the development of a much more favorable pattern. The upcoming cold shot is sort of an appetizer. I'm a little worried we haven't seen much precip of any kind, let alone snow....if that continues it won't matter if it's cold. People talk about 1958, but how much can analogs tell us? Ins't the climate a bit warmer now too? At least the potential seems to be there, but will the chances come? And, how often have we had three winters in a row with lots of snow? Where's the analog for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The long term forecasts on this site are a joke. I don't know why some of you bother. I found this gem of a thread from last year... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44994-rising-confidence-in-favorable-period-for-snow-dec-15-jan-1/ I'm sure I could find many more if I tried. Almost no one picked out the February we had last year until it was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If things verify as they appear headed, it will be a remarkable turnaround. The worst (excessive warmth) is behind us. So far things remain on course for the development of a much more favorable pattern. The upcoming cold shot is sort of an appetizer. Don , I took the 1958 500 mb from Tom away along with 1958 OLR reanalysis to compare to what NCEP thinks the rest of the way . 1st Look at where that POS is over and just E of HB in 1958 . But that NEG was so far back s of AK because we forced near the DL those NEG developed into the SE on a strong STJ . When you look at the 2M temps ( I will go back and post later ) the S and MA were cold in Jan but Feb turned into a romp . We seem to be stuck at the D/L and are forecast to continue . These are week 4- 5 -6 on the weeklies . So far over the last 4 weekly runs those height fields end up further W in Canada as we got closer which is looking more in step with the seasonal . So as we get into Jan ( which will have plenty of cold with it ) . Feb could continue along with this analog . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I'm a little worried we haven't seen much precip of any kind, let alone snow....if that continues it won't matter if it's cold. People talk about 1958, but how much can analogs tell us? Ins't the climate a bit warmer now too? At least the potential seems to be there, but will the chances come? And, how often have we had three winters in a row with lots of snow? Where's the analog for that? The past few weeks have been quite wet so I wouldn't worry too much about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I'm a little worried we haven't seen much precip of any kind, let alone snow....if that continues it won't matter if it's cold. People talk about 1958, but how much can analogs tell us? Ins't the climate a bit warmer now too? At least the potential seems to be there, but will the chances come? And, how often have we had three winters in a row with lots of snow? Where's the analog for that? December was above average in precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 That STJ is going to go to work soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The long term forecasts on this site are a joke. I don't know why some of you bother. I found this gem of a thread from last year... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44994-rising-confidence-in-favorable-period-for-snow-dec-15-jan-1/ I'm sure I could find many more if I tried. Almost no one picked out the February we had last year until it was happening. Couldn't have been more wrong, and he knows his stuff. Which is why I don't get too excited about much until we are on the cusp of an event, and even then, it doesn't always work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Couldn't have been more wrong, and he knows his stuff. Which is why I don't get too excited about much until we are on the cusp of an event, and even then, it doesn't always work out. Because seasonal forecast are close to impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 December was above average in precipitation. Was it? Didn't seem like it, I live near a couple creeks that swell easily in big rains, and they are still below normal. I know it rained more in Dec than previous months, but it didn't seem like all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Let's start a new thread for it Too early - I tryed starting one yesterday - I can see the main issue right now is trying to determine the date range of these events since there is more then one with also precip type issues .to complicate things even further.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Couldn't have been more wrong, and he knows his stuff. Which is why I don't get too excited about much until we are on the cusp of an event, and even then, it doesn't always work out. John had a back loaded winter last year . He was a little quick in Dec . But those guys had a good forecast in the end . You have to try and find out the rest of the story and not read 10 pages inside 5 months of forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The long term forecasts on this site are a joke. I don't know why some of you bother. I found this gem of a thread from last year... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44994-rising-confidence-in-favorable-period-for-snow-dec-15-jan-1/ I'm sure I could find many more if I tried. Almost no one picked out the February we had last year until it was happening. The best thing I got out of that thread is the fact that like 5 people from in there now have banned next to their name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Was it? Didn't seem like it, I live near a couple creeks that swell easily in big rains, and they are still below normal. I know it rained more in Dec than previous months, but it didn't seem like all that much. It was. But many previous months were below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Was it? Didn't seem like it, I live near a couple creeks that swell easily in big rains, and they are still below normal. I know it rained more in Dec than previous months, but it didn't seem like all that much. You didn't notice how is seemed to rain almost every day for the last 2/3 of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 You didn't notice how is seemed to rain almost every day for the last 2/3 of the month? Or had more days cloudy with rain then sunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Was it? Didn't seem like it, I live near a couple creeks that swell easily in big rains, and they are still below normal. I know it rained more in Dec than previous months, but it didn't seem like all that much. Close to 5.00 inches in New Brunswick last month....did you happen to go outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 You didn't notice how is seemed to rain almost every day for the last 2/3 of the month? He's the dungeon master lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 It rained at least .01 inches for 10 days straight here late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Hi... Hope all is well reader. I just want to say that the snow is coming. And lots of it January looks to be our snowiest month according to my weather computer analysis. I'm very excited for the second week of January. I just literally can't wait I want a 36 hour blizzard with 2-3 feet of snow with 7 foot drifts followed by below zero temperatures. Let's see what the 0z model suite has in store for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Hi... Hope all is well reader. I just want to say that the snow is coming. And lots of it January looks to be our snowiest month according to my weather computer analysis. I'm very excited for the second week of January. I just literally can't wait I want a 36 hour blizzard with 2-3 feet of snow with 7 foot drifts followed by below zero temperatures. Let's see what the 0z model suite has in store for us! You know what they say WeatherFeen, "You can't always get what you want." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Next Saturday on GFS. Lol. Made a huge leap south and colder. One small jump and we're good. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Then a 960's bomb on the following Monday, but the coast is too warm. Weenie suicide alert if this somehow verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Then a 960's bomb on the following Monday, but the coast is too warm. Weenie suicide alert if this somehow verifies. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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