MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Bundle up ...... Tues is going to be cold.A quick warmup and then the hammer drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The CMC is a horrible model. Always behind the 8 ball Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 The CMC is a horrible model. Always behind the 8 ball GFS usually does an 8 ball with it's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 And the gfs isnt?Bro, you, me and the man on the moon know if the EPS were showing warmth and the GEFS were showing cold right now, you would be saying ignore the EPS and go with the GEFS right now. Lol come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Tues is going to be cold.A quick warmup and then the hammer drops. While I tend to agree, I'm not as confident as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Bro, you, me and the man on the moon know if the EPS were showing warmth and the GEFS were showing cold right now, you would be saying ignore the EPS and go with the GEFS right now. Lol come on This is certainly true haha. I think he'd be a little less confident about it though. But he's optimistic guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the end of the eps run has an ugly pacific too. the gfes isn't alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This is certainly true haha. I think he'd be a little less confident about it though. But he's optimistic guy.I had not idea the man on the moon had internet access, he must have satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I Am not here often but I know some of you throughout the years. Some like warm weather and will do anything and show any mode that shows warm weather. Same thing with the people who like cold and snow. Personally I agree with pb. I don't who he is and I'm not taking sides. But I have been saying since November. Late December or January it turns and mid January we should be all staying not up with model runs. Good luck ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 I had not idea the man on the moon had internet access, he must have satellite Oh you didnt know? His space suit is a portable wifi equiped lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The hammer drops is ridiculous. It's going to get colder for sure, not +13, but doorman is right, the western ridge is dying and it's going to be zonal flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 While I tend to agree, I'm not as confident as you. I remember when people were really worried last January. I like what I am seeing in regards to the Pna,epo and AO. Op runs always struggle during changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I Am not here often but I know some of you throughout the years. Some like warm weather and will do anything and show any mode that shows warm weather. Same thing with the people who like cold and snow. Personally I agree with pb. I don't who he is and I'm not taking sides. But I have been saying since November. Late December or January it turns and mid January we should be all staying not up with model runs. Good luck ! You should post here more. Everything still looks on track for a second half cold and snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There was always supposed to be a relaxation in the pattern before the real show. February is where it's at, we need to cool down the ocean for the city and coast and the next two weeks will do that well. Still plenty of energy in the Gulf Stream to give us the baroclinicity we need to go boom. That's when the big storm happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I would not worry about the PAC , the hammer did not even come down yet . Think we are all in agreement about relaxing after the 20th for about 10 days before it re fires . There is plenty to look at in the 1st 20 days that the GFS and most here missed . Get through that , then we can move on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The hammer drops is ridiculous. It's going to get colder for sure, not +13, but doorman is right, the western ridge is dying and it's going to be zonal flow Explain exactly what this 5 day mean is saying When you are done lets see if that`s a hammer . You see what it is showing at 240 in the M/W that will get parked over you as we get closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The hammer drops is ridiculous. It's going to get colder for sure, not +13, but doorman is right, the western ridge is dying and it's going to be zonal flow Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Forky has a bit of a point. The GOA low is trying to make a comeback at the end there. Something to watch moving forward. However, thats way out there and it looks like a sweet pattern before then. Of course, that doesn't mean it will deliver, but its better than no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Even as there is disagreement on where things are going, for purposes of context none of the guidance suggests a return to the predominant December pattern. That pattern is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Even as there is disagreement on where things are going, for purposes of context none of the guidance suggests a return to the predominant December pattern. That pattern is gone. Don , Tom posted the Jan 10 - Feb 1 500 mb 1958 map away. It looks like the Euro weeklies . The mean ridge was further E then where we are now and that trough ripped right through the M/A. Then Feb 58 was a legendary month . We have done a complete flip at 500 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Things do get quite ugly for several days before the cold comes back. It may not be December ugly but I see the 50s returning in the Jan 6-10/11 period. So whoever called for a +4 for the 1st 9 days is probably on the money. The 12-20th is our best opportunity for sustained cold & snow this month before the next regression. We'll likely see more of that in Feb and even March where they'll be openings for wintry weather. If we can maximize our chances, then our snow totals could add up very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Things do get quite ugly for several days before the cold comes back. It may not be December ugly but I see the 50s returning in the Jan 6-10/11 period. So whoever called for a +4 for the 1st 9 days is probably on the money. Where do you see 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Alot of potential on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Where do you see 50s? 9&10th on the gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Forky has a bit of a point. The GOA low is trying to make a comeback at the end there. Something to watch moving forward. However, thats way out there and it looks like a sweet pattern before then. Of course, that doesn't mean it will deliver, but its better than no shot. FWIW that GOA low tried to show up numerous times Days 13-16 in the 2nd halves of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters on the EPS and GEFS and every time the models were wrong. The west ridge/east trof pattern tends to be one that likes to hang on in the DJF period..IMO it is one of the hardest patterns over any continent in the globe to break down when it sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There are only 3 days of AN . Opined , expected and the MISS was Jan 2- 6 on their end . Go back and read the period that was forecast ( week 1 ) by the CFS to be + 8 . Which would mean Jan 1 - 7 . Week 1 . We know about the 3 day warm up . Never in the equation . Then the floor drops out ( Next fight ) . Those 2 days of 50`s will be offset by 2 days in the 20`s .You are prob looking at N for the first week. But my dates were always 2-6 and from the 10 - 20 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Even as there is disagreement on where things are going, for purposes of context none of the guidance suggests a return to the predominant December pattern. That pattern is gone. This needs to be repeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 This needs to be repeated. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 FWIW that GOA low tried to show up numerous times Days 13-16 in the 2nd halves of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters on the EPS and GEFS and every time the models were wrong. The west ridge/east trof pattern tends to be one that likes to hang on in the DJF period..IMO it is one of the hardest patterns over any continent in the globe to break down when it sets in. Thats interesting. That's when it was too, right at the end of the run. Even with that happening, there was still some ridging in the arctic and trough signal in the east. It'll be interesting to see how it trends from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Alot of potential on the gfs for who and what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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