Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am in agreement with Doorman. I have never wavered from my position that January will be above normal temperature wise and below normal snowfall wise. Then perhaps you guys should come back and post on Feb 1st since you have January all figured out and then can share your thoughts for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS OP is all over the place with the 1/11 storm. It goes from an inland runner at Oz to way out to sea at 6z! I don't get how many times this needs to be said for people to understand but if your going to look for specific storm threats past day 3 you need to use the ensembles...a operational run will change from run to run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Rainstorm on the GFS for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Rainstorm on the GFS To me nothing has changed since last week....cold shot early this week then a cutter followed by a more interesting pattern for us...I guess one could say the cold shot has been trending colder since NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Paulie great post !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am in agreement with Doorman. I have never wavered from my position that January will be above normal temperature wise and below normal snowfall wise. Thanks guys for laying it out there. What are your thoughts on February? (Doorman and snowman19). Are you in agreement with others that a weakening El Niño will succumb to the other indices to promote a colder regime with our best chances for snow, or do you still feel El Niño and a strong pac jet will overtake the pattern again (such as your thoughts for January)? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Rainstorm on the GFS for next weekend Earlier transfer on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 CMC hinting at Jan 10th snowstorm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 To me nothing has changed since last week....cold shot early this week then a cutter followed by a more interesting pattern for us...I guess one could say the cold shot has been trending colder since NYE Agreed. The pattern after the 10th is when we will have our opportunity. I'm in the below normal camp temp wise for Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Earlier transfer on the run what do other models show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The gfs clearly hints at the 10/11th storm after our cutter, and then it unleashes some nice cold afterwards. Very shifty op runs with the atmosphere in flux. I wouldn't go beyond the Day 3-5 timeframe otherwise you'll drive yourself nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The gfs clearly hints at the 10/11th storm after our cutter, and then it unleashes some nice cold afterwards. The 10/11 will depend on where the boundary sets up after the cold push...to Far East it's out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The gfs clearly hints at the 10/11th storm after our cutter, and then it unleashes some nice cold afterwards. Very shifty op runs with the atmosphere in flux. I wouldn't go beyond the Day 3-5 timeframe otherwise you'll drive yourself nuts. Agree , you will need to get closer to really look at the spacing and placement of the 2 SWs . Storm 1 ( which heads NE ) as the trough has pulled back for 3 days will help pull your baroclinic zone S and E as it exits . ( So don`t look for wintry with that one ). Then you will need a good trough axis to set up as the system behind turns for it to work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 People get excited way too fast. And then nothing happens and hide for weeks at a time. If it happens then it will and if not well life goes on. I normally dont post here much but come on now. At the same time i would take time and learn some things from experts who know more then us. Learning is a wonderful thing. Happy New Years EVERYONE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Nice satellite picture in the western Atlantic on the visible with the sharp edge on the western edge and then the stratocu behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Would storm 1 set up in the 50/50 position for our storm 2? IIRC this is the one that DT is going woof woof over Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 ESRL 500 mb Mean Z Loop http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_usbg_animation.html last frame FLAT Flow ....for all the dough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Eps is really nice moving forward. Has a coastal for jan 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Eps is really nice moving forward http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016010212&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 ESRL 500 mb Mean Z Loop http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_usbg_animation.html last frame FLAT Flow ....for all the dough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Eps has a few storm signals . Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 PARA GFS . GEFS looks to be alone . Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 PARA GFS . GEFS looks to be alone . Hmmmmm. Paul GEPS is the CMC just for the record http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_geps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Paul GEPS is the CMC just for the record http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_geps There you go. Looks like the GFS is alone. Just making sure ALL the guidance gets weighed when looking at 15 day 500mb patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Paul GEPS is the CMC just for the record http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_geps The cmc ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The CMC is a horrible model. Always behind the 8 ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 2 weeks ago , guys here were using it to say there was no pattern change on the way ? Where were the objections then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Bundle up ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There you go. Looks like the GFS is alone. Just making sure ALL the guidance gets weighed when looking at 15 day 500mb patterns. Great ....you know where my money is http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spagnhanim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The CMC is a horrible model. Always behind the 8 ball And the gfs isnt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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