Rjay Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Lottery numbers? A "very snowy late December" + "snowier than average" January + "a blizzard or 2" with above average snowfall for February = 40-48". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 A "very snowy late December" + "snowier than average" January + "a blizzard or 2" with above average snowfall for February = 40-48". LOL sounds more like 80" to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I think we'll eventually turn colder by mid December and very snowy by late December. January won't have a thaw and it'll be snowier than average. February may end up near or above normal but with a blizzard or two ending the average snowfall above average for the month. March will end up being colder and drier but barely any snow. Lock it in Total snowfall for NYC 40-48 inches I disagree about March. I think it could be our snowiest month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 A "very snowy late December" + "snowier than average" January + "a blizzard or 2" with above average snowfall for February = 40-48". Lol. But yeah with this pattern It's near impossible to lock anything in. Might as well take it on a weekly basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I kinda like that cutter on the 12z euro op. Would be nice to get that to perhaps help to shake up the pattern a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Sure looks like an endless dry torch on today's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Green grass from dca to orh torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Sure looks like an endless dry torch on today's model runs. Very stormy pattern developing as we head deeper into December. I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow before we exit december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Very stormy pattern developing as we head deeper into December. I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow before we exit december. Bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Bold Not really. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Very stormy pattern developing as we head deeper into December. I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow before we exit december. Often strongly negative SOI periods are followed by a breakthrough of the subtropical jet. Storminess for the 2nd half of December seems reasonable. Cold remains questionable. Hopefully, we'll cash in on one of the storms before the month is over, though January may offer a higher probability of doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 the Old Farmers Almanac is busting hard so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Very stormy pattern developing as we head deeper into December. I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow before we exit december. December is a winter month. A shut out is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 It's much colder now in Jerusalem than in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Often strongly negative SOI periods are followed by a breakthrough of the subtropical jet. Storminess for the 2nd half of December seems reasonable. Cold remains questionable. Hopefully, we'll cash in on one of the storms before the month is over, though January may offer a higher probability of doing so. Agree dom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Frost is not hard to come by anymore..already forming here at this hour. Last night you could scrape the cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 GFS continues with the theme of bringing in the cold weather around the 18/19 but not before 2 lake cutters happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 December is a winter month. A shut out is a disaster. It's disappointing, but I wouldn't call it a disaster. Long range forecasts have shown for a while that December was going to be rough and the latter half of winter looks better. The way I look at it, if we're going to have a real crummy pattern, I'd rather have it in December than January or February. We can easily have a good winter even with a bad December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 They will get close tonight, forecast 34. If they don't get it tonight they will likely break the record. Looks like the airport hit 32 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 A little comedy from Joe Bastardi here (actually not Joe Bastardi) -- VODKA COLD COMING. Well folks, not volks as in Volkwagen, vodka cold is finally coming into the picture. I was looking at the 06z 6000 hr CFS and it shows brutal cold air heading down to the Plains by June 12, 2016. My worry, my concerns are that there could be a monster storm coming up out of the Gulf at the same time, and that could send snow totals into orbit. Mind you, this is NOT a forecast, but just ducks being born about to walk over to the pond and dipping their feet in to the water. This correlates well with my thoughts I have had ever since November 16, 1987. Remember, we at Weatherbell.com have been alluding to this first and for some time now. My fear is that the Cahirs connection and the French Connection will intertwine and bring snow and cold all the way down to Tampico, Mexico. These things are telling me that, again, we have to watch very carefully the I-95 corridor. The snow patrol will have something to smile about this June. Vodka Cold. Texas may have snow. Speaking of Texas, the Aggies are going to the Sugar Bowl. Again, this teleconnects well to my forecast. Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got. -- Joe B. here again. I forgot to add my verification. I said that NYC would see the worst cold in 500 years last week. I predicted a high of -120F for the first 3 days of the week and up to -22F for the highs the rest of the week. The weekly average should have been somewhere around -50F for highs with temps running some 96 degrees below normal. Actual temps for that week were about +4 with an average high for that week being about 43 degrees. JFK hit -55 F really quick for 15 minutes before midnight on the 17th, BUT, a pre-midnight surge of warm air pushed temps up to around 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Signs of the times this December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Signs of the times this December: There are moths out tonight. I don't remember ever seeing them still out in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 There are moths out tonight. I don't remember ever seeing them still out in December Aside from the fallen leaves, it felt and looked a lot more like late October than early December today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Aside from the fallen leaves, it felt and looked a lot more like late October than early December today. It definitely does especially when we start seeing 60s show up. We're easily on track to set another record breaking month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 This weather sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I was thinking this seems reasonable for this month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 This weather sucks Just wait until it gets even warmer. The departures are going to be stunning by 12/20 because the lows will also be on the rise. I said NYC will post a +9.5 this month and while that might be pushing it we could be around that three weeks into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Just wait until it gets even warmer. The departures are going to be stunning by 12/20 because the lows will also be on the rise. I said NYC will post a +9.5 this month and while that might be pushing it we could be around that three weeks into December. Yeah, my forecast lows spike into the mid 40s Thursday night and stay there through the weekend. We haven't been seeing huge departures because the dry air has gotten us into the 30s and even upper 20s at night despite warm days. Departures will go up once the dirty ridge and then cutter move through. A few days of 60/40 or 65/45 will move the monthly anomaly up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Amazing the difference between NYC and suburbs this month. Central Park is already +6.5 and has not even broken the 30s with 5 consecutive lows at or above 40F. Here in Dobbs Ferry, last night was in the upper 20s and the nights before were in the low to mid 30s. Just shows how little Central Park radiates on clear nights with no wind. Outlying areas, however, radiate well under the strong ridge. NYC could end up with a massive departure this December if we really get 3-4 days in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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