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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Yeah i agree as well, the banter thread is unfortunately a necessity...leave the typical bs'ing, whining, imby questions/thoughts etc in there. Have a monthly obs/discussion thread that contain actual meteorological posts, and when threats get far enough in, specific threat threads.

This somehow actually makes sense, who wrote it for you?
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Yeah, the EPS take us into full pattern change territory from around January 9-10 on. They skip over

the original January Euro seasonal and go right into the pattern it had been showing for February with

the trough in the East and a -EPO/+PNA/-AO.

We get our wheels in motion between the 1st thru the 5th and by the 9th it`s full bore .

Considering where we have been the front 5 in Jan will feel cold even though it`s N .

post-7472-0-46838500-1451391267_thumb.pn

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Potentialy the greatest step down from December to January temperatures that you are going to see around here.

Just breaking even for January would represent close to a 20 degree drop in real mean temperatures

from the current December. I believe one of the previous greatest December to January drop was

the 84-85 La Nina when the January average was 15 less than December going from 43.8 to 28.8.

December so far....51.6

January average.....32.6

I am only N for Jan . My point this entire time has been you are going into a N regime when the splits are 38/28.

The 2nd half of the month looks flat out cold but I will not take the Temps down anymore.

I am happy with the call of the flip to N with that set up at 500 it's a win

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Pretty crazy El Nino...MJO...Barents low sea ice feedback...pattern change.

It looks like something major wants to come out of the panhandle all the way to New England and then the Vortex will collapse in

If we don't snow in that set up , we will just be unlucky.

Having all the indices line up like this is rare that's a big time pattern

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Post Jan 10 looks really good as all indices line up in our favor with the exception of the NAO, but that's okay. It'll probably get negative eventually but may lag a week or two after the AO dips.

 

 

EVERY SIGNAL is/becomes favorable INCLUDING THE NAO .

 

Very rare . 

post-7472-0-51444700-1451399908_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-66170600-1451399917_thumb.pn

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Updated AO. It keeps on falling.
14af03q.gif
 

Post Jan 10 looks really good as all indices line up in our favor with the exception of the NAO, but that's okay. It'll probably get negative eventually but may lag a week or two after the AO dips.

Looks like the NAO will be heading towards neutral

nao.sprd2.gif

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It looks like something major wants to come out of the panhandle all the way to New England and then the Vortex will collapse in

If we don't snow in that set up , we will just be unlucky.

Having all the indices line up like this is rare that's a big time pattern

 

We'll see how the new EPS 45 day snowfall does. They are bullish on day 17-27. I like that notice posted below

about please not posting to social media. :D

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What are the temps here if such a map verifies?

 

Depends on/if there is snow cover and exactly where that NEG will center itself .

I think it`s coming both the Euro and Canadian see it . 

 

Too far to tell , but it`s not  NORMAL  :)

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EVERY SIGNAL is/becomes favorable INCLUDING THE NAO .

 

Very rare . 

 If I'm not mistaken the boxing day storm was the last time we had the "dream pattern setup" presented to us. This upcoming pattern would be rare indeed with all the indices in our favor. But with such a great setup comes tremendous pressure on us for the pattern to produce. It screams KU and for it not to happen would be a bitter disappointment.

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 If I'm not mistaken the boxing day storm was the last time we had the "dream pattern setup" presented to us. This upcoming pattern would be rare indeed with all the indices in our favor. But with such a great setup comes tremendous pressure on us for the pattern to produce. It screams KU and for it not to happen would be a bitter disappointment.

 

 

It is a great pattern , it does not mean it will produce .  But to see such a major flip like this in the means after this December  as Chris pointed out you at least have a chance to see one of the greatest Dec to Jan reversals . 

 

How that for east based .

 

Sorry , could not resist . 

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Potentialy the greatest step down from December to January temperatures that you are going to see around here.

Just breaking even for January would represent close to a 20  degree drop in real mean temperatures 

from the current December. I believe one of the previous greatest December to January drop was

the 84-85 La Nina when the January average was 15 less than December going from 43.8 to 28.8.

 

December so far....51.6

January average.....32.6

this month is the most unseasonable since records have been kept...1856-57 had an eighteen degree drop from Dec to Jan but Jan 1857 was the coldest on record...

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It is a great pattern , it does not mean it will produce .  But to see such a major flip like this in the means after this December  as Chris pointed out you at least have a chance to see one of the greatest Dec to Jan reversals . 

 

How that for east based .

 

Sorry , could not resist . 

Yea so true. The upcoming pattern will be very ripe for snow potential, yet weather can be very unpredictable. At the very least we'll have  the foundation laid out before us to give us a chance for a KU event. Something we can only dream of in December.

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