40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I average 50-55" a season so anything under 50" is always a disappointment but im starting to think 50" might even be a stretch up here let alone down there. Hopefully everyone cashes in the next few months. Fingers crossed What data leads you to believe that?? ALL data of late is to the contrary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think some angst is born of the late start to the season......understandable, but end is in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Today's 12z GFS makes me hot. Do I really need to spell out why? Let's just get the -NAO west based and feed the STJ right into the northern MA. 1/20-2/20 will feature our best chance for a HECS since 2010. And with how I am seeing the pattern unfolding, I think we may have more than one HECS opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 12z GFS nearly split the PV AT 10HPA today in two frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 12z Euro splits the PV at 30hpa and 50hpa ON DAY 7. This is moving up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Today's 12z GFS makes me hot. Do I really need to spell out why? Let's just get the -NAO west based and feed the STJ right into the northern MA. 1/20-2/20 will feature our best chance for a HECS since 2010. And with how I am seeing the pattern unfolding, I think we may have more than one HECS opportunity. That's been the game plan. Let's get that super warm air to battle some true arctic and its nor'easter city. My worry is we see to strong of a storm to close in and the coast rains. I truly believe someone inland and elevated sees a HEC this winter maybe one for the record books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hot stuff. Seems like models are improving on cold chances every day and they're trending in one direction. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Gefs shows a huge -AO block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Gefs shows a huge -AO block Yep it's also showing a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 FWIW, the 12Z GFS is also a phenomenal look for delivering cold into Western Europe. BRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoggyO Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 FWIW, the 12Z GFS is also a phenomenal look for delivering cold into Western Europe. BRR. Interesting. Won't that mean a little less cold air on our side of the World? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The euro is pretty tasty at the end of the run...blocking with active stj...yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The undercutting out west is pretty impressive on the afternoon Euro Ensemble. That remains a big part of the equation for early Jan and is being overlooked by many right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The euro is pretty tasty at the end of the run...blocking with active stj...yes pleaseThis. Best Euro and GFS runs of the Winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakie Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Winter finally arriving in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This. Best Euro and GFS runs of the Winter so far. Gotta watch though where that trof orientation is cause that can lead to a congrats southeast with waves just pushing west to east with no amplification. But agree best look/set of runs all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The undercutting out west is pretty impressive on the afternoon Euro Ensemble. That remains a big part of the equation for early Jan and is being overlooked by many right now. I'm still thinking we see results probably 15-20th of January. It's a step down process but a promising one going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Gotta watch though where that trof orientation is cause that can lead to a congrats southeast with waves just pushing west to east with no amplification. But agree best look/set of runs all winterAgreed. I, personally, am on board for a big second half. But, my inner weenie aside, still lots can go wrong. 7-10 days from now we'll have a much better handle on just how good of a second half this will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 So much good news pouring in today and it's nice to hear. The big question will be whether we can get the storms along with the cold but one can't stop feeling giddy knowing the immense potential for the 2nd half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The jet breaks through a full week earlier than the weeklies were advertising from just one week ago . Th Ensembles continue to place 2 centers of LP off the EC in the day 10 -15 . ( Not to say that does not disappear in 3 days , we will see ) and I am sure we would be happy with one , but by day 15 the vortex gets hung up under that ridging . For this warm biased LR model on the EC seeing those anomalies at 850 , tells me 2 thing look out , this will trend colder and 2 it could be seeing snow cover .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeh Chris the ensembles do see the 4 day warm up between the 6th and 9th ( day 9 -12 ) . Our BN period starts from D 4 - 8 as the entire 500 mb field flips and once you are to the 10th you hook the ridge over the top and ( Day 13 - 15 and beyond ) it`s the real deal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The eps is pretty good after Jan 8th a lot of blocking split flow/-epo/+pna/-ao/ east base -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeh Chris the ensembles do see the 4 day warm up between the 6th and 9th ( day 9 -12 ) . Our BN period starts from D 4 - 8 as the entire 500 mb field flips and once you are to the 10th you hook the ridge over the top and ( Day 13 - 15 and beyond ) it`s the real deal . Day 13 is my birthday. Weenie prayers possibly answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Day 13 is my birthday. Weenie prayers possibly answered. We almost got Doug last year if you remember . Then it fell apart 3 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ironic how after my dads passing the pattern decides to change almost on a dime. Thanks dad. Yeah I know it wasn't because of him but its just ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Officially no confusion till days 08-14: http://www.cpc.ncep....ictions/610day/ The NAEFS looks blah too for the next 15, with lowest Sigma 1 temps. of 23-26 near the 5th. I have also seen the experimental 16-21 and 21-25 day outputs and none of 4 out of 4 '5-day segments' of which it is composed, averages below normal. In fact---it wants to fry us on both sides during coldest part of the winter---near the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 YANKS GET CHAPMAN .... We now return to your regularly scheduled met banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 YANKS GET CHAPMAN .... We now return to your regularly scheduled met banter Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Nice Happy Bday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 YANKS GET CHAPMAN .... We now return to your regularly scheduled met banter Yep posted it in the yankee thread big pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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