Morris Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The CFS continues to improve for January the closer we get to the end of this month. Next few runs of the weeklies will be interesting to see. CFSv2.NaT2m.20151228.201601.gif CFSv2.z700.20151228.201601.gif WTH?This model went from way above average for the month and started trending to what it shows now as a BN month? Who knows what it will show tomorrow.... You can bring again the daily progression of the model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WTH? This model went from way above average for the month and started trending to what it shows now as a BN month? Who knows what it will show tomorrow.... You can bring again the daily progression of the model... You generally have to blend the last 3-5 model runs of the previous month to get a general idea of the following month. So we have three more days of model runs to average together to get a general idea of January along with the next few extended EPS runs for January. Hopefully, the extended EPS settle down and do better than the last few months. They had a good run last winter in showing the -EPO pattern, but didn't show enough troughing in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 There really is nothing except a brief few day cold trough in east that is transient. We are back to a zonal flow and mild pacific air after that for a time. Beyond that is a complete crapshoot at this point but the polar jet seems to want to stay pretty far north the last few months, persistently so with high heights over the US. Not much to hang the hat on here, snow chances this season will be relegated to the far NW areas. Hopefully the coast can pull a rabbit out of the hat once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 There really is nothing except a brief few day cold trough in east that is transient. We are back to a zonal flow and mild pacific air after that for a time. Beyond that is a complete crapshoot at this point but the polar jet seems to want to stay pretty far north the last few months, persistently so with high heights over the US. Not much to hang the hat on here, snow chances this season will be relegated to the far NW areas. Hopefully the coast can pull a rabbit out of the hat once this winter.Smh. Bxe and rjay, I dunno how you do it but kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 There really is nothing except a brief few day cold trough in east that is transient. We are back to a zonal flow and mild pacific air after that for a time. Beyond that is a complete crapshoot at this point but the polar jet seems to want to stay pretty far north the last few months, persistently so with high heights over the US. Not much to hang the hat on here, snow chances this season will be relegated to the far NW areas. Hopefully the coast can pull a rabbit out of the hat once this winter. The GFS model which you are looking AT cannot be relied upon past a few days out in a transitioning pattern which we are currently in the beginning stages of. A better indicator of what is down the road is to look at the MJO forecasts for the various models http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml and also the NAO PNA EPO AO SOI forecasts........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 the ao could be tanking...the nao is forecast to be a little negative after being positive for so long...I hope this is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I am off + 2 for Jan and am now N for the month . If there is an error here it will be because I am being too conservative . If the Euro weeklies break the way I think they could then -2 is not off the table for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I am off + 2 for Jan and am now N for the month . If there is an error here it will be because I am being too conservative . If the Euro weeklies break the way I think they could then -2 is not off the table for me . You were +3 earlier. I'm curious if Forky is sticking to his +5 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You were +3 earlier. I'm curious if Forky is sticking to his +5 for the month. Yep , +3 +2 now N Forky is + 5 SnoSki +6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 AO freefalling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yep , +3 +2 now N Forky is + 5 SnoSki +6 I'm going to revise that number in the Jan temp thread. The tool I love to see, the CFS, is changing big time.The El Niño is also gradually diminishing in intensity and there's no additional uptick in the 1+2 region as some believed might happen (although it's still possible it will briefly). This "pattern change" looks legit and we should get additional model data/weeklies to confirm that. This definitely does not look like 97/98 or 82/83 as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 CFS January forecast Look how much cooler this model got from earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 CFS January forecast Look how much cooler this model got from earlier this month. When the CFS shows cold, you know a pattern change is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The interesting thing about the D11-15 EPS is that it is the Euro seasonal February forecast with the trough moving into the Southeast. The day 11-15 skips right over the seasonal January forecast which was a broad trough from the SW through the SE. 65/66 turned in Jan , I believe there were a couple of snowstorms that came out of the S into the NE. Maybe UNC can find the dates to see if that is right . The quick pattern flip may be accompanied with SLP off the EC here in that set up as the EURO traps the trough under the ridge . The Euro see`s more than 1 system during this period . How would that be for the ultimate flip . Fantasy range so it stays in banter , just discussing some potential analogs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 When the CFS shows cold, you know a pattern change is coming! CFS usually does well in the short time but it doesn't do well in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1965-66 was colder to start the season than this year...It was mild Christmas and New Years day but it had temperatures in the teens before that...after the warmth the first few days of January 1966 it got cold on the 8th with a few snow flakes...the first measurable snow of the season was on 1/20 with a coating...the first storm/noreaster was 1/23...2.4" of wet snow that changed to rain...1/26-27 had 2" of snow followed by 8 degrees on 1/28...1/30 was the KU event along the east coast...snow developed late on 1/29 and accumulated a few inches before changing to rain during the morning of the 30th...temps rose to 38 in Central Park...the surface low tracked just west of the city...in the early afternoon the rain changed back to snow on sw winds and another 3" accumulated...6-8" accumulated for the whole storm...not much rain fell as we were in a dry slot for a time...It stayed cold from 1/31-2/1...after that we got snow from a system curling around the lakes...3-4" fell on 2/2-3...it stayed cold until the 8th when it thawed for a week...A major rain storm from an inland runner on the 13th...2.42" fell...it cooled off after that for a little snow to rain event on the 16th...a half inch of snow before changing to light rain...it got cold after that and an arctic front with snow squalls came on the evening of the 19th causing slippery roads...the morning low on the 20th was 8 degrees tying for the lowest of the winter...on the 24th rain developed in the afternoon but quickly changed to wet snow...wet snow continued into the next morning and 6-7" accumulated in the city...temps didn't get below 32 during the storm...it got mild with rain on the 28th and all the snow was gone...March was dry and only a trace of snow fell...temps were near average... KU storm of 1/29-30/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1965-66 was colder to start the season than this year...It was mild Christmas and New Years day but it had temperatures in the teens before that...after the warmth the first few days of January 1966 it got cold on the 8th with a few snow flakes...the first measurable snow of the season was on 1/20 with a coating...the first storm/noreaster was 1/23...2.4" of wet snow that changed to rain...1/26-27 had 2" of snow followed by 8 degrees on 1/28... ..snow developed late on 1/29 and accumulated a few inches before changing to rain during the morning of the 30th...temps rose to 38 in Central Park...the surface low tracked just west of the city...in the early afternoon the rain changed back to snow on sw winds and another 3" accumulated...6-8" accumulated for the whole storm...not much rain fell as we were in a dry slot for a time...It stayed cold from 1/31-2/1...after that we got snow from a system curling around the lakes...3-4" fell on 2/2-3...it stayed cold until the 8th when it thawed for a week...A major rain storm from an inland runner on the 13th...2.42" fell...it cooled off after that for a little snow to rain event on the 16th...a half inch of snow before changing to light rain...it got cold after that and an arctic front with snow squalls came on the evening of the 19th causing slippery roads...the morning low on the 20th was 8 degrees tying for the lowest of the winter...on the 24th rain developed in the afternoon but quickly changed to wet snow...wet snow continued into the next morning and 6-7" accumulated in the city...temps didn't get below 32 during the storm...it got mild with rain on the 28th and all the snow was gone...March was dry and only a trace of snow fell...temps were near average... KU storm of 1/29-30/66 I thought there were a few that either hit or just missed in a 2 week period . ( Active ) . .the first storm/noreaster was 1/23. 1/30 was the KU event along the east coast. DC BLIZZARD - That`s the one i was alluding too we got snow from a system curling around the lakes...3-4" fell on 2/2-3 I am looking for the same kind of run here this winter . There may be several in a row , they don`t alll hit , but they may show up before months end . http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.480.604&rep=rep1&type=pdf Ignore the OSWEGO amounts , those were LES combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I thought there were a few that either hit or just missed in a 2 week period . ( Active ) . .the first storm/noreaster was 1/23. 1/30 was the KU event along the east coast. DC BLIZZARD - That`s the one i was alluding too we got snow from a system curling around the lakes...3-4" fell on 2/2-3 I am looking for the same kind of run here this winter . There may be several in a row , they don`t alll hit , but they may show up before months end . http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.480.604&rep=rep1&type=pdf 1999-2000 was very similar to 1965-66 for the sensible weather in NYC...a slow start with a cold and snowy period for about three weeks...a parting shot in late February...The 1/29-30/1966 storm was a disappointing storm for me and it wasn't forecast to change to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1999-2000 was very similar to 1965-66 for the sensible weather in NYC...a slow start with a cold and snowy period for about three weeks...a parting shot in late February...The 1/29-30/1966 storm was a disappointing storm for me and it wasn't forecast to change to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 97-98 had its cold in Nov and early Dec, poor timing for our climo. There was also a 5" snowfall in late March that made it the 3rd least snowy winter for Central Park instead of 1st. Given the pattern showing up, the favorable 500mb may align with our best climo from early January to mid February. I am really liking the potential for a ridge bridge with the NW Canada and Kara Sea blocks combining for a -NAO and to knock the PV off the Pole. 0z GFS shows -15C 850s moving in by Day 8, and the GEFS show the STJ waking up by mid January. This is tied to changes in the MJO and stratospheric warming. I never thought this would be a 97-98, 72-73, 18-19 style of super Nino in which NYC gets 6" or less of snow. I still favor somewhat below normal snowfall, but in the 15-20" range. This could easily be too low if this JAN period has legs and then we get a big El Nino coastal in Feb. Yeah, I think you're going to be low with your snowfall amounts. I went upper 30s for NYC last month, and I still feel comfortable with that general idea. The pattern should be more supportive for potential larger events than what we've seen since 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah, I think you're going to be low with your snowfall amounts. I went upper 30s for NYC last month, and I still feel comfortable with that general idea. The pattern should be more supportive for potential larger events than what we've seen since 2010-11. I'm going with 40-50 inches for that same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm going with 40-50 inches for that same reason. Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Good luck with that You guys up there will get more for sure. But I'm confident that we'll get about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You guys up there will get more for sure. But I'm confident that we'll get about that. I average 50-55" a season so anything under 50" is always a disappointment but im starting to think 50" might even be a stretch up here let alone down there. Hopefully everyone cashes in the next few months. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The depicted upcoming pattern into mid January is extremely unusual. +NAO, -AO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO. There are very few matches for such a pattern as Matt Lanza pointed out, only a handful of times in the last 60 years. It is a colder pattern as depicted, but overall, there will not be any major true arctic outbreaks like last year for awhile. The +WPO will act to cut off cross-polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The depicted upcoming pattern into mid January is extremely unusual. +NAO, -AO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO. There are very few matches for such a pattern as Matt Lanza pointed out, only a handful of times in the last 60 years. It is a colder pattern as depicted, but overall, there will not be any major true arctic outbreaks like last year for awhile. The +WPO will act to cut off cross-polar flow. Suites me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The depicted upcoming pattern into mid January is extremely unusual. +NAO, -AO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO. There are very few matches for such a pattern as Matt Lanza pointed out, only a handful of times in the last 60 years. It is a colder pattern as depicted, but overall, there will not be any major true arctic outbreaks like last year for awhile. The +WPO will act to cut off cross-polar flow. ? Houston we have a problem , A little WPO cherry picking , but some of the ensembles see it head NEG in the LR , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 There really is nothing except a brief few day cold trough in east that is transient. We are back to a zonal flow and mild pacific air after that for a time. Beyond that is a complete crapshoot at this point but the polar jet seems to want to stay pretty far north the last few months, persistently so with high heights over the US. Not much to hang the hat on here, snow chances this season will be relegated to the far NW areas. Hopefully the coast can pull a rabbit out of the hat once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Suites me. Just needs to be cold enough . No one wants frigid and dry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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