Met Winter Banter

[Allsnow]

Me too. We've lost some quality commentary and insightful posts due to their departures. They were a real asset during winter storm tracking. I still love checking in on this site nightly during winter for the model runs but it is lacking a certain character and quality anymore around here.

Agree. It killed this sub forum and now it's just posters with personal agendas going after one another.....the lack of insightful conversation has made it unreadable at times. I can't sit here and post as if I didn't have something to do with this, but it would be nice to have those guys back.

[Rjay]

Agree. It killed this sub forum and now it's just posters with personal agendas going after one another.....the lack of insightful conversation has made it unreadable at times. I can't sit here and post as if I didn't have something to do with this, but it would be nice to have those guys back.

You had nothing to do with those guys not posting here. They are more than welcome to share their thoughts any time they please. I wish they would.

Bluewave, DonS, Forky, PB, Snowgoose, Superstorm, Isotherm and a bunch of others do a fine job on here. We should all be happy we have a place to discuss weather and be weenies together.

[Allsnow]

You had nothing to do with those guys not posting here. They are more than welcome to share their thoughts any time they please. I wish they would.

Bluewave, DonS, Forky, PB, Snowgoose, Superstorm, Isotherm and a bunch of others do a fine job on here. We should all be happy we have a place to discuss weather and be weenies together.

All those guys do a great job but the frequency of posts are low obviously because real life comes first. With Doug and Earthlight we had insight with regards to cold/snow potential....plus the over night model run info made for a great read in the morning. I guess they always had a eye in the long range and how things looked ..where now we pretty much just argue about daily departures and long range cold/warm patterns

[wthrmn654]

Me too. We've lost some quality commentary and insightful posts due to their departures. They were a real asset during winter storm tracking. I still love checking in on this site nightly during winter for the model runs but it is lacking a certain character and quality anymore around here.

There all in new England forum.

[wthrmn654]

Correction I'm thinking if dendrite

[bluewave]

Sorry man, hate to burst your bubble but earthlight, weathergun, iso, doug, frank and many many others have been on this same train for months.

I get you are excited but let's give credit where its due, to all the posters who put out long range forecasts in November. Not trying to take away from PB either, hes an outstanding poster.

But almost everyone has been on the backloaded winter train for months.

 

To be fair, it's just the El Nino seasonal progression at work that many posters have recognized.

As always, it comes down to the magnitude of the back-loadedness which is unique to each 

El Nino year. It's been happening since the earth has been producing El Ninos.

 

The big surprise this winter was the extreme record warmth on the front end which carried

over from the spring through the fall. No one really had a clue of the magnitude of these departures

when we were thinking about how the second year of this El Nino event would evolve after

the record cold late winter last year.

[Brian5671]

Where's Brian#s when you need him

who do I need to tell to get a life???

[psv88]

To be fair, it's just the El Nino seasonal progression at work that many posters have recognized.

As always, it comes down to the magnitude of the back-loadedness which is unique to each

El Nino year. It's been happening since the earth has been producing El Ninos.

The big surprise this winter was the extreme record warmth on the front end which carried

over from the spring through the fall. No one really had a clue of the magnitude of these departures

when we were thinking about how the second year of this El Nino event would evolve after

the record cold late winter last year.

Agreed.

[Rjay]

who do I need to tell to get a life???

I was looking for, "if you don't like it don't read it".

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Yes please.

[SnoSki14]

To be fair, it's just the El Nino seasonal progression at work that many posters have recognized.

As always, it comes down to the magnitude of the back-loadedness which is unique to each

El Nino year. It's been happening since the earth has been producing El Ninos.

The big surprise this winter was the extreme record warmth on the front end which carried

over from the spring through the fall. No one really had a clue of the magnitude of these departures

when we were thinking about how the second year of this El Nino event would evolve after

the record cold late winter last year.

Climatologists are stunned by how extreme this month's warmth was even in a perfect storm of mild.

Now what if things flip 180 degrees in a 89/90 style, which is quite possibly where we're headed. The public won't know what's coming and how good they had it for Nov/Dec.

[PB GFI]

I was looking for, "if you don't like it don't read it".

Lol.

Who are you , Frank Caliendo? Lol. Classic Brian.

[SnowGoose69]

Climatologists are stunned by how extreme this month's warmth was even in a perfect storm of mild.

Now what if things flip 180 degrees in a 89/90 style, which is quite possibly where we're headed. The public won't know what's coming and how good they had it for Nov/Dec.

 

In 89/90 nobody saw it coming either, of course then the long range forecasting sucked but nobody ever thought that sort of reversal was coming.  It seemed unanimous that was going to be a bad winter by late December.

[WintersGrasp]

You had nothing to do with those guys not posting here. They are more than welcome to share their thoughts any time they please. I wish they would.

Bluewave, DonS, Forky, PB, Snowgoose, Superstorm, Isotherm and a bunch of others do a fine job on here. We should all be happy we have a place to discuss weather and be weenies together.

Agreed. We have many people here who bring nothing but quality posts to the discussion, and have done so for quite some time. Others have really stepped up their game and have become quite knowledgeable; it is a pleasure to read their posts as well. Where else can you get interpreted model readings that are hours, sometimes days ahead of what you see on TV? Both the educated meteorologists and amateurs here bring a lot to the table. Rather than bash those whose predictions don't exactly pan out, just move on. Obviously it is only possible because this is an open forum of weather enthusiasts where voices can be heard (wouldn't have the same effect yelling at a meteorologist on the TV screen). Disagreements make the discussion great, and I think most of us that have been here quite a while know who to take seriously and who not to. This is clearly not a place where someone should come for a single quick weather forecast for their city (stick to NWS forecasts and local stations for that). I haven't been posting much this season, as I haven't had anything too productive to bring to the conversation, but the discussions have been great lately

[winterwarlock]

Am I hearing that some are already declaring victory on a major pattern change and huge snowfall dumps 4-6 weeks before it happens...I just find that approach arrogant and makes this board a turn off

[Morris]

ECMWF parallel not so negative AO at 12z ... flip/flop in medium range. https://t.co/eK1YzEqDLR

[PB GFI]

Am I hearing that some are already declaring victory on a major pattern change and huge snowfall dumps 4-6 weeks before it happens...I just find that approach arrogant and makes this board a turn off

There has been 0 talk of snow here.

As far as the pattern changing , I am not sure Hellen Keller can't see the differences at 500 that start next week.

It's bad analysis like that , that turns really smart L/R guys off.

They all see it coming , trust me , we get to read their stuff.

[Isotherm]

To be fair, it's just the El Nino seasonal progression at work that many posters have recognized.

As always, it comes down to the magnitude of the back-loadedness which is unique to each 

El Nino year. It's been happening since the earth has been producing El Ninos.

 

The big surprise this winter was the extreme record warmth on the front end which carried

over from the spring through the fall. No one really had a clue of the magnitude of these departures

when we were thinking about how the second year of this El Nino event would evolve after

the record cold late winter last year.

 

 

The big debate in El Nino winters really centers on the month of January. But considering January is 1/3 of the meteorological winter, it's an important month, and often the deciding factor of the flavor of the season. Most El Nino's, even the torchy ones overall, shifted in February to a certain extent (Feb 2007, Feb 1983, Feb 1973, Feb 1995). 1997-98 was one of the few El Nino events that torched throughout the entire winter.

 

However, if you look at the sample of strong el nino's, many of the years were not colder until February (and the cold wasn't that strong): 1982-83, 1972-73, and of course 1997-98 torched entirely. If we enter a pattern that is normal or colder than normal for January, that will be unlike any strong El Nino since 1965. If we end up with a pattern that produces a relatively cold Jan-Feb, and a snowier than normal winter, it will be the first (and only) such strong Nino case since 1957-58. So I disagree with you in that it's as easy as looking at el nino progression. Most did not anticipate these changes in the first couple weeks of January, but there was sound meteorological evidence for the modelled changes.

 

The probability of a non-blocky / torchy pattern for another several weeks was arguably higher than the blocky/colder evolution given the sample of strong el nino analogs.

[nzucker]

The big debate in El Nino winters really centers on the month of January. But considering January is 1/3 of the meteorological winter, it's an important month, and often the deciding factor of the flavor of the season. Most El Nino's, even the torchy ones overall, shifted in February to a certain extent (Feb 2007, Feb 1983, Feb 1973, Feb 1995). 1997-98 was one of the few El Nino events that torched throughout the entire winter.

However, if you look at the sample of strong el nino's, many of the years were not colder until February (and the cold wasn't that strong): 1982-83, 1972-73, and of course 1997-98 torched entirely. If we enter a pattern that is normal or colder than normal for January, that will be unlike any strong El Nino since 1965. If we end up with a pattern that produces a relatively cold Jan-Feb, and a snowier than normal winter, it will be the first (and only) such strong Nino case since 1957-58. So I disagree with you in that it's as easy as looking at el nino progression. Most did not anticipate these changes in the first couple weeks of January, but there was sound meteorological evidence for the modelled changes.

The probability of a non-blocky / torchy pattern for another several weeks was arguably higher than the blocky/colder evolution given the sample of strong el nino analogs.

97-98 had its cold in Nov and early Dec, poor timing for our climo. There was also a 5" snowfall in late March that made it the 3rd least snowy winter for Central Park instead of 1st.

Given the pattern showing up, the favorable 500mb may align with our best climo from early January to mid February. I am really liking the potential for a ridge bridge with the NW Canada and Kara Sea blocks combining for a -NAO and to knock the PV off the Pole. 0z GFS shows -15C 850s moving in by Day 8, and the GEFS show the STJ waking up by mid January. This is tied to changes in the MJO and stratospheric warming.

I never thought this would be a 97-98, 72-73, 18-19 style of super Nino in which NYC gets 6" or less of snow. I still favor somewhat below normal snowfall, but in the 15-20" range. This could easily be too low if this JAN period has legs and then we get a big El Nino coastal in Feb.

[SnoSki14]

0z gfs shows the first week of Jan mostly AN with temps in 40s and 50s, but that's the first step. You start to see the effects of a +PNA/-EPO towards the end of the LR.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

0z gfs shows the first week of Jan mostly AN with temps in 40s and 50s, but that's the first step. You start to see the effects of a +PNA/-EPO towards the end of the LR.

You have read the model run incorrectly. The 0z GFS has max 2m temps in the 30s for the first week of January. It gets into the 40s for a few days the following week as the western ridge collapses briefly...see below

...with clear signs of a cold pattern reload after + an active STJ (see below). Give it up.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

There has been 0 talk of snow here.

As far as the pattern changing , I am not sure Hellen Keller can't see the differences at 500 that start next week.

It's bad analysis like that , that turns really smart L/R guys off.

They all see it coming , trust me , we get to read their stuff.

To be fair, I've been talking about snow, or at least making very strong inferences. But that's really just me.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Snoski, the EPS last night shows the transient warm up on d10, temps in the 40s

Followed by the big hurt (-EPO, -AO, -NAO, active STJ) by d15. All guidance has the PV undergoing severe perturbation by d8 and splitting at multiple strat levels by d15. If you can't get excited by this, don't know what to tell you. I think we begin seeing mod to major snow chances no later than January 20th.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Last nights strat on the euro

[bluewave]

The big debate in El Nino winters really centers on the month of January. But considering January is 1/3 of the meteorological winter, it's an important month, and often the deciding factor of the flavor of the season. Most El Nino's, even the torchy ones overall, shifted in February to a certain extent (Feb 2007, Feb 1983, Feb 1973, Feb 1995). 1997-98 was one of the few El Nino events that torched throughout the entire winter.

 

However, if you look at the sample of strong el nino's, many of the years were not colder until February (and the cold wasn't that strong): 1982-83, 1972-73, and of course 1997-98 torched entirely. If we enter a pattern that is normal or colder than normal for January, that will be unlike any strong El Nino since 1965. If we end up with a pattern that produces a relatively cold Jan-Feb, and a snowier than normal winter, it will be the first (and only) such strong Nino case since 1957-58. So I disagree with you in that it's as easy as looking at el nino progression. Most did not anticipate these changes in the first couple weeks of January, but there was sound meteorological evidence for the modelled changes.

 

The probability of a non-blocky / torchy pattern for another several weeks was arguably higher than the blocky/colder evolution given the sample of strong el nino analogs.

 

I guess the key when dealing with the tiny very strong subset of all El Nino years is to be aware of the small sample size

involved. Weather patterns during the 2000's have been more extreme than past analogs that we look at. The warmth

to extreme cold and snow last winter was another prime example of this. The one common denominator was that it

followed the general El Nino template of warm in December transitioning to cold in January and coldest in February.

But the magnitude of the extremes were not well forecast late in the fall or even through January. The same

can be said of this December which can typically be the warmest month in the general larger sample size of

all El Nino events. But the historic nature of the extreme warmth followed the 2000's playbook of patterns

running to the extreme. So when I talk of El Nino seasonal progression, it's being done only in the most

general sense. It's really hard to forecast the magnitude of extremes much beyond the very end of the 

previous month into the start or even mid portion of the following month in question.

[PB GFI]

Snoski, the EPS last night shows the transient warm up on d10, temps in the 40s

image.jpg

Followed by the big hurt (-EPO, -AO, -NAO, active STJ) by d15. All guidance has the PV undergoing severe perturbation by d8 and splitting at multiple strat levels by d15. If you can't get excited by this, don't know what to tell you. I think we begin seeing mod to major snow chances no later than January 20th.

image.jpg

The period beginning from the 2nd -7th is N on all of the guidance ( and for early Jan it's cold enough ) , there is a 3 day "warm up " day 9 thru 11 probably plus 5 or so , which is typical between troughs that pulse .

By day 13 the trough is back in the east and deepening as it gets stuck under the ridge.

40s and 50s would equate to a week of plus 5 to 10 AN from the between the 2nd and 7th as the normal high at KNYC is between 39 and 40 during that time period.

 

This looks N  to me . 

 

 

[PB GFI]

What's interesting about the early January forecast is how quickly the models are playing catch up as we approach

the end of December. It's like the end of November going in the colder instead of the warmer direction. We can remember

how the weeklies for December were not capturing the extreme warm pattern when the December extended run came out on 22nd.

The weeklies were much too cool for December and were playing catch up right into early December. The recent weeklies

for January before Christmas weren't able to capture the major 500 mb changes rapidly appearing over the last several days.

Now all the ensembles are rapidly shifting the hemispheric pattern to where day 11-15 at least looks like some

of the seasonal modeling like the CA tool.

When I first saw this 10 days ago , I really said hmmm too fast ? I have always liked from the 15th on . I was a little unsure if it would really turn in week 1 .

At least at 500 this has totally flipped inside a 2 week period in the guidance . Usually we get a few false starts or small pulses , this turns and could stick .

At least thats what the weeklies said Thrs . Will love to see the new 45 days ensembles tonight to see if it holds that NEG/POS look out W .

I am not saying it 89/90 the other way , but I agree with you from the volatility aspect here since 2000 , we don`t flat line .Our normal`s derive as a result of extremes .

Tommy pinned out 57/58 back in July and that really was a tale of 2 winters . I think we are headed in that direction .

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The similarities to 57-58 are pretty uncanny at the strat/troposphere levels.

[SnoSki14]

This is faster than 57-58 just in regard to the EPO. The models are giving us an -EPO pattern to start January

while it didn't happen in 57-58 until February and March.

I just hope it doesn't try to go back to the base pattern we've been in since May though if we're talking about a PV split and SSW event not too far down the line then we won't have to worry about a transient phase like in 82/83.

I'm excited about the pattern moving forward but remain cautious and these gfs op runs (0&6z) worry me a bit.

[BxEngine]

0z gfs shows the first week of Jan mostly AN with temps in 40s and 50s, but that's the first step. You start to see the effects of a +PNA/-EPO towards the end of the LR.

50s? Where? I know this is the banter thread but i barely see 40s on the 0z run for most of the area.

If youre going to discuss specific model runs, dates, locations, etc, please post the maps youre referring to (obv pay sites not included). It will help make your point, and will lead to less bickering around here.