Rjay Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 ^^ thank you for putting this in the right thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Has Tony used up his 5 post for the day? I wanna hear what he has to say about this upcoming winter! His expertise is 2nd to none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 mean while..............http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-121.76274658203124&lat=46.852956786544894#.VmJ-Ct9On1g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 What a great December day it was. 50°, and it's amazing how since it's been such a gradual decline in daily high temperatures, that actually feels comfortable. Awesome weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 GFS says winter begins mid month. It also shows 2 big snowstorms for interior areas and New England. Looks like an active period might be on the way for mid to late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 GFS says winter begins mid month. It also shows 2 big snowstorms for interior areas and New England. Looks like an active period might be on the way for mid to late December. It also had some sweet December 5th snowstorm runs two weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 GFS says winter begins mid month. It also shows 2 big snowstorms for interior areas and New England. Looks like an active period might be on the way for mid to late December.If the GFS ever actually verified, we would have been in an ice age by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 If the GFS ever actually verified, we would have been in an ice age by now Pattern looks to improve by Christmas week. White xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 GFS says winter begins mid month. It also shows 2 big snowstorms for interior areas and New England. Looks like an active period might be on the way for mid to late December. any ensemble support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Pattern looks to improve by Christmas week. White xmas? I hope that's not based off the Day 15 gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I hope that's not based off the Day 15 gfs.Of course it's off the operational long range GFS. It's a junk model with no support that always shows fantasy cold and snowy in the long range that never verifies, like it did all winter long back in 11-12. Notice how the goal posts keep getting pushed back, first it was "major pattern change to cold and snowy" come late November/Thanksgiving, then it was early December, then ooops never mind, mid December, then ooops again around Christmas, ahhh scratch that, late December/early January.... The beat goes on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Of course it's off the operational long range GFS. It's a junk model with no support that always shows fantasy cold and snowy in the long range that never verifies, like it did all winter long back in 11-12. Notice how the goal posts keep getting pushed back, first it was "major pattern change to cold and snowy" come late November/Thanksgiving, then it was early December, then ooops never mind, mid December, then ooops again around Christmas, ahhh scratch that, late December/early January.... The beat goes on.....This is not true at all. The smart money was always on December being mild, and that theme has been repeated in winter forecast after winter forecast. That doesn't mean there can't be a window for a snow threat in December, and I would guess Dec 18-20 is the 1st window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Of course it's off the operational long range GFS. It's a junk model with no support that always shows fantasy cold and snowy in the long range that never verifies, like it did all winter long back in 11-12. Notice how the goal posts keep getting pushed back, first it was "major pattern change to cold and snowy" come late November/Thanksgiving, then it was early December, then ooops never mind, mid December, then ooops again around Christmas, ahhh scratch that, late December/early January.... The beat goes on..... I DID notice that, youre right. Seems oddly deja-vu-ish though, dont you think? "End of Feb pattern change, we're done here, NE still has a shot." "After those first few days of march the pattern flips and we go warm" "people here are rooting for cold and snow with no basis for it, its over when we hit march"... The beat goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 any ensemble support?I hope by December 15 ..long range models show pattern flip ..but time will tell .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I DID notice that, youre right. Seems oddly deja-vu-ish though, dont you think? "End of Feb pattern change, we're done here, NE still has a shot." "After those first few days of march the pattern flips and we go warm" "people here are rooting for cold and snow with no basis for it, its over when we hit march"... The beat goes on... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Of course it's off the operational long range GFS. It's a junk model with no support that always shows fantasy cold and snowy in the long range that never verifies, like it did all winter long back in 11-12. Notice how the goal posts keep getting pushed back, first it was "major pattern change to cold and snowy" come late November/Thanksgiving, then it was early December, then ooops never mind, mid December, then ooops again around Christmas, ahhh scratch that, late December/early January.... The beat goes on..... We all know that you are rooting for a mild and snowless winter. You must be enjoying this weather. This is not true at all. The smart money was always on December being mild, and that theme has been repeated in winter forecast after winter forecast. That doesn't mean there can't be a window for a snow threat in December, and I would guess Dec 18-20 is the 1st window. It looks like our 1st window will be the 18-20 . I would favor the interior at this point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 the ao forecast is more encouraging in the long run today but it's to early to believe it...More members are negative than positive for a change...big change hopefully... Updated. More members going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Of course it's off the operational long range GFS. It's a junk model with no support that always shows fantasy cold and snowy in the long range that never verifies, like it did all winter long back in 11-12. Notice how the goal posts keep getting pushed back, first it was "major pattern change to cold and snowy" come late November/Thanksgiving, then it was early December, then ooops never mind, mid December, then ooops again around Christmas, ahhh scratch that, late December/early January.... The beat goes on..... What are going to do when El Nino fades in a few months?..You'll be out of job lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 This is the first winter season where there's not even a cutter bringing in a cold front..When's the last time we had a real cold front come through?..September?..Has CP hit freezing yet?..Not even a flake in Buffalo?..wow..I know it's real early,but this has been the most pitiful late fall early winter I have ever seen..I mean can we get one day below normal? lol I haven't seen a flake yet except for my dandruff when I put on too much spray. Buffalo has recorded only a trace of snow so far this season. The record has been smashed by them. It sucks but winter will eventually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I haven't seen a flake yet except for my dandruff when I put on too much spray. Buffalo has recorded only a trace of snow so far this season. The record has been smashed by them. It sucks but winter will eventually come. Philly's about to break their record for latest freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Philly's about to break their record for latest freeze They will get close tonight, forecast 34. If they don't get it tonight they will likely break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Philly's about to break their record for latest freeze Meh it's urban heat island stuff, not that far from Philly and my first freeze came early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Meh it's urban heat island stuff, not that far from Philly and my first freeze came early. Yeah most places except right in the major urban areas have easily hit their first freeze. But we don't have much climatological data to compare to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I haven't seen a flake yet except for my dandruff when I put on too much spray. Buffalo has recorded only a trace of snow so far this season. The record has been smashed by them. It sucks but winter will eventually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Even near its lowest angle this sunshine feels good. Glad we aren't at a high latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Of course it's off the operational long range GFS. It's a junk model with no support that always shows fantasy cold and snowy in the long range that never verifies, like it did all winter long back in 11-12. Notice how the goal posts keep getting pushed back, first it was "major pattern change to cold and snowy" come late November/Thanksgiving, then it was early December, then ooops never mind, mid December, then ooops again around Christmas, ahhh scratch that, late December/early January.... The beat goes on..... Everything that I have read has always said December was going to be mild .. Then some forecasts had changed to a possibility of the pattern changing for the second half of December.. THIS is what the guidance is now starting to come around to. ECM looks like it would be post Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I think we'll eventually turn colder by mid December and very snowy by late December. January won't have a thaw and it'll be snowier than average. February may end up near or above normal but with a blizzard or two ending the average snowfall above average for the month. March will end up being colder and drier but barely any snow. Lock it in Total snowfall for NYC 40-48 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I think we'll eventually turn colder by mid December and very snowy by late December. January won't have a thaw and it'll be snowier than average. February may end up near or above normal but with a blizzard or two ending the average snowfall above average for the month. March will end up being colder and drier but barely any snow. Lock it in Total snowfall for NYC 40-48 inches Lottery numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 It looks like the euro would also bring in the cold for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Even near its lowest angle this sunshine feels good. Glad we aren't at a high latitude. It'll feel even better next week into the weekend. The 60s are definitely coming mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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