Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=12-GFS-WLD-850-temp-0-1 I will let you decide, what type of large scale pattern change you see here give it a few minutes to cycle out You always bring the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Blanket warning. Discuss the forecasts and posts, not the posters. Alittle jabbing is fine. What happened the other day will result in bannings, no more warnings or suspensions. Keep it civil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You are something else man. It's December 27th and you are already declaring that someone is going to definitely be right on a pattern call for all of January. I guess you can see over 5 weeks into the future when January ends and I guess there are absolutes in weather huh? lol. How is the warm January looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 lol. How is the warm January looking? well it didn't get to the low 60s today, clouds kept it to 59....so there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 lol. How is the warm January looking? We'll see what happens, January hasn't started yet but clearly the temp trends are on the downswing from a few days ago. FWIW I'll be happy to see the colder/snowier forecasts work out. I'm ready to see some good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wow at the awful analysis saying the pattern looks terrible after the 10th. One only has to go back 6 or 7 pages to see what was missed. You can not. You will not warm the east for more than 2 or 3 days in this new pattern with that neg near AK and the ridge back into the western Prairies.. D 13 14 15 , the trough is in the east. Like I said the model has to pull that back and would adjust. Word of caution. If the Euro ensembles see a trough in the E from 2 weeks out and showing - 2 -3 from this distance as this model is biased warm in the east in the L/R Look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 We'll see what happens, January hasn't started yet but clearly the temp trends are on the downswing from a few days ago. FWIW I'll be happy to see the colder/snowier forecasts work out. I'm ready to see some good storms. This change was seen 7 to 10 days ago. Not a few days ago. You just ignored the guidance . You're not the only one . The storms may not turn up until week 3 and 4 . The 1st part is dry as the trough axis is too far east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wow at the awful analysis saying the pattern looks terrible after the 10th. One only has to go back 6 or 7 pages to see what was missed. You can not. You will not warm the east for more than 2 or 3 days in this new pattern with that neg near AK and the ridge back into the western Prairies.. D 13 14 15 , the trough is in the east. Like I said the model has to pull that back and would adjust. Word of caution. If the Euro ensembles see a trough in the E from 2 weeks out and showing - 2 -3 from this distance as this model is biased warm in the east in the L/R Look out. Man, 12zEPS looks pretty sweet to me by the time we get to the end. We're getting the Aleutian low setting up in a pretty sweet spot. Ridging is building across the arctic. Not to mention the pesky low heights in the west are migrating to the east by the end. There is a warm up after the initial cold shot earlier in the run, but that is what looks to be transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Man, 12zEPS looks pretty sweet to me by the time we get to the end. We're getting the Aleutian low setting up in a pretty sweet spot. Ridging is building across the arctic. Not to mention the pesky low heights in the west are migrating to the east by the end. There is a warm up after the initial cold shot earlier in the run, but that is what looks to be transient.Yes. There is a 3 day stretch where we are probably plus 5 , but it's BN for the 5 daya prior and then could get really cold after , starting D 13 .As with most patterns here troughs sometimes pulse then pull back then re fire. N to BN to slightly AN to BN if dry will not make people happy . But it's the start of what could be a decent second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes. There is a 3 day stretch where we are probably plus 5 , but it's BN for the 5 daya prior and then could get really cold after , starting D 13 . As with most patterns here troughs sometimes pulse then pull back then re fire. N to BN to slightly AN to BN if dry will not make people happy . But it's the start of what could be a decent second half. For a while I thought like some of us did that the LR models showing the pattern change was just a mirage and would just keep getting delayed. Now that it looks for real, let's just get the cold air established first. If it does the snow chances will come in due time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes. There is a 3 day stretch where we are probably plus 5 , but it's BN for the 5 daya prior and then could get really cold after , starting D 13 . As with most patterns here troughs sometimes pulse then pull back then re fire. N to BN to slightly AN to BN if dry will not make people happy . But it's the start of what could be a decent second half. And once the PV splits, part migrated to Hudson Bay and we're locked in for many weeks. Get your shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wow at the awful analysis saying the pattern looks terrible after the 10th. One only has to go back 6 or 7 pages to see what was missed. You can not. You will not warm the east for more than 2 or 3 days in this new pattern with that neg near AK and the ridge back into the western Prairies.. D 13 14 15 , the trough is in the east. Like I said the model has to pull that back and would adjust. Word of caution. If the Euro ensembles see a trough in the E from 2 weeks out and showing - 2 -3 from this distance as this model is biased warm in the east in the L/R Look out. Someone posted this in the SNE thread the other day, the Euro, at least the Op Euro has issues constantly trying to boot the eastern trof near day 9-10, this has been noticeable for a couple of years now. I don't know if it is a bias of the model or not since the upgrqde but it seems that way. As a whole, the Op GFS/Euro runs have gotten cold feet on and off with this pattern change the last 5 days beyond Day 12 on the GFS and near Days 9-10 on the Euro, they really want to keep going zonal again, but the ensembles have not budged on the +PNA idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Loltastic. Can't wait until the strat splits in a couple of weeks. I predict you run for the hills. PB and I are like a one-two punch of forecasters right now. He's focusing and owning of the 500mb flip. I'm taking on the SSW, which is actually splitting at multiple strat levels on all guidance in the 8-10 day range. HECS chances coming in just 3-4 weeks. You will be absent out of embarrassment. Sorry man, hate to burst your bubble but earthlight, weathergun, iso, doug, frank and many many others have been on this same train for months. I get you are excited but let's give credit where its due, to all the posters who put out long range forecasts in November. Not trying to take away from PB either, hes an outstanding poster. But almost everyone has been on the backloaded winter train for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Someone posted this in the SNE thread the other day, the Euro, at least the Op Euro has issues constantly trying to boot the eastern trof near day 9-10, this has been noticeable for a couple of years now. I don't know if it is a bias of the model or not since the upgrqde but it seems that way. As a whole, the Op GFS/Euro runs have gotten cold feet on and off with this pattern change the last 5 days beyond Day 12 on the GFS and near Days 9-10 on the Euro, they really want to keep going zonal again, but the ensembles have not budged on the +PNA idea. That was me goose , you responded to me. It's a constant error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sorry man, hate to burst your bubble but earthlight, weathergun, iso, doug, frank and many many others have been on this same train for months. I get you are excited but let's give credit where its due, to all the posters who put out long range forecasts in November. Not trying to take away from PB either, hes an outstanding poster. But almost everyone has been on the backloaded winter train for months. That very true , if you look at the early pages of the ENSO thread we talked about a back loaded winter. Tommy had 57/58 early , I think Chris and I looked at the Euro in July and locked on , and we were kinda first here to have to back loaded idea. I mean from mid summer we fought. But to Wolf's credit he was told here a week ago that he was dreaming by some when he brought up the SSW . So he's within his rights to plant a flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That very true , if you look at the early pages of the ENSO thread we talked about a back loaded winter. Tommy had 57/58 early , I think Chris and I looked at the Euro in July and locked on , and we were kinda first here to have to back loaded idea. I mean from mid summer we fought. But to Wolf's credit he was told here a week ago that he was dreaming by some when he brought up the SSW . So he's within his rights to plant a flag Fair enough. There are obviously some people who want warm weather and for the long range guys to bust. Its weird when people try to boost their egos via a weather forum, and it should be noted that the good posters dont do this. The long range crew did a good job once again, so it seems. Last winter was a bit delayed but not denied as well. Personally, Im looking forward to some damn snow..been shutout since I moved here in april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Fair enough. There are obviously some people who want warm weather and for the long range guys to bust. Its weird when people try to boost their egos via a weather forum, and it should be noted that the good posters dont do this. The long range crew did a good job once again, so it seems. Last winter was a bit delayed but not denied as well. Personally, Im looking forward to some damn snow..been shutout since I moved here in april. I bet you laughed when you got your Dec gas/oil bill though. Almost like , really, this is easy ? I am very happy if this is an 8 week ordeal and wasn't wire to wire energy wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'd actually prefer these posters LEARN. Alas, they won't, and they will be back being negative during next years La Niña. Next year... There still saying its wrong right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I bet you laughed when you got your Dec gas/oil bill though. Almost like , really, this is easy ? I am very happy if this is an 8 week ordeal and wasn't wire to wire energy wise. Not really, my wife is from Colombia and has the heat blasting at 74 even on days like this. It takes my breath away and I have to sleep with fans on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just for a reference point... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/ "Because something is happening here, But you don't know what it is... do you, Mr.Jones" -Robert Allen Zimmerman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just for a reference point... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/ "Because something is happening here, But you don't know what it is... do you, Mr.Jones" -Robert Allen Zimmerman Just for a reference point... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/ "Because something is happening here, But you don't know what it is... do you, Mr.Jones" -Robert Allen Zimmerman Putting salt in the wound I see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just for a reference point... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/ "Because something is happening here, But you don't know what it is... do you, Mr.Jones" -Robert Allen Zimmerman This will be a complete flip by February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I bet you laughed when you got your Dec gas/oil bill though. Almost like , really, this is easy ? I am very happy if this is an 8 week ordeal and wasn't wire to wire energy wise. Yea for sure. So far been about 100/month for oil for a 2300 sq ft house. Cant complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sorry man, hate to burst your bubble but earthlight, weathergun, iso, doug, frank and many many others have been on this same train for months. I get you are excited but let's give credit where its due, to all the posters who put out long range forecasts in November. Not trying to take away from PB either, hes an outstanding poster. But almost everyone has been on the backloaded winter train for months. First, I called for a backloaded Winter before any of those guys after reading some excellent thoughts and analysis by Alan Huffman and Wes Junker in November. Second, all of those guys dwarf my knowledge of this stuff and you know I am in regular contact with them and you also know they're praised by kiss-asses like me nauseatingly. I've given credit to the ones who post here where due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sorry man, hate to burst your bubble but earthlight, weathergun, iso, doug, frank and many many others have been on this same train for months. I get you are excited but let's give credit where its due, to all the posters who put out long range forecasts in November. Not trying to take away from PB either, hes an outstanding poster. But almost everyone has been on the backloaded winter train for months. Wish those guys would come back and post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Fair enough. There are obviously some people who want warm weather and for the long range guys to bust. Its weird when people try to boost their egos via a weather forum, and it should be noted that the good posters dont do this. The long range crew did a good job once again, so it seems. Last winter was a bit delayed but not denied as well. Personally, Im looking forward to some damn snow..been shutout since I moved here in april. Let it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yea for sure. So far been about 100/month for oil for a 2300 sq ft house. Cant complain Home run dude. A hundo a month is a daily Venti Starbucks in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 You are something else man. It's December 27th and you are already declaring that someone is going to definitely be right on a pattern call for all of January. I guess you can see over 5 weeks into the future when January ends and I guess there are absolutes in weather huh? look who's calling the kettle black I think you should look in a mirror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Wish those guys would come back and post... Me too. We've lost some quality commentary and insightful posts due to their departures. They were a real asset during winter storm tracking. I still love checking in on this site nightly during winter for the model runs but it is lacking a certain character and quality anymore around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Where's Brian#s when you need him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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